AUD

[Stormin_Norman]

Hey Norm is that a typo ?

But unless you haven't made a typo cobber , yesterday Skippy struggled to get near .87 mate . , unless you have a time capsule you must have bought in August / Sept. 2007 .

oops. add another 8 in there 8800. if u know anyone selling at .8000, let me know

 

[ithatheekret]

No worries cobber after a few green cans or a bottle of red , the buttons go blurry for me and I fat finger .

Ichi Tenk just crossed underneath Kinju @88868 moving through cloud now , need 88914 to get above cloud , waiting for a little retracement .

 

[ithatheekret]

oops out of cloud now 88926

 

[ithatheekret]

last peak drop was a beauty on the 1 min .

PS ... anyone else run down the platform after it ?

 

[Stormin_Norman]

last peak drop was a beauty on the 1 min .

PS ... anyone else run down the platform after it ?

i only trade in the direction i believe make sense to the fundamentals. so while i sold at 8896, and thought it would come off, i dont chase the market against the direction i believe its taking.

 

[ithatheekret]

I follow the herd and the money Norm , I just don't run off the cliff it all possible , accidentally tripped one off once though .

 

[Kauri]

I follow the herd and the money Norm , I just don't run off the cliff it all possible , accidentally tripped one off once though .

I'm constantly at the cliff, feet always dangling over the eedge.. if you see the herd approaching let me Know.. pleese..

My count has a possible W5 minor inc flat playing... but it may be close to the cliff edge... the butterflies flitting around the drop are interesting
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

Well you beat me Norm I only managed 8889's my sells never registered until 8885/4s I was hitting 8887 , but that's what I got . thought it topped out at 8894's .


rev 8876's as last candle set in the jello . not much to go on in the Ichi yet except next cross from underneath , rsi almost neutral by me .

I do remember last main peak 88895 was defended .


PS... just got 889 even , might hold the one left and tighten up , i'll know in 2 secs.

 

[ithatheekret]

Where are those budgies ?

 

[Stormin_Norman]

I follow the herd and the money Norm , I just don't run off the cliff it all possible.

exactly.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

thought it topped out at 8894's .

i went and looked at the trades. it was a 8892. i must have been looking at the buy price at the time.

 

[Kauri]

i went and looked at the trades. it was a 8892. i must have been looking at the buy price at the time.

in shorts again... for better or worse..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Stormin_Norman]

i went long at 8870. what fundamentals do you think will force the AUD down against the USD? do u expect risk aversion to strike?

 

[Kauri]

i went long at 8870. what fundamentals do you think will force the AUD down against the USD? do u expect risk aversion to strike?

Credit aircraft orders account for a lot for the 5.2% jump in headline durable goods but the ex-trans increase of 2.6% was far ahead of expectations. Punters will poo-poo it as a volatile series but there are too many little rippers for Uncle Ben to feel comfortable about aggressively easing Wednesday. Expect Fed funds futures and Treasury prices to take a smack on the data. Maybe...I thunk... but as a non-economist I am possibly way off the mark??? ... and the early response seems to back that up... off the mark that is.. All the set-ups came together, so I am still comfortable with my position and reasoning... at the moment.. why did you go long.. fundementally-economically??? (and I envy your ability to pick what is, for now, the bottom.
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Credit aircraft orders account for a lot for the 5.2% jump in headline durable goods but the ex-trans increase of 2.6% was far ahead of expectations. Punters will poo-poo it as a volatile series but there are too many little rippers for Uncle Ben to feel comfortable about aggressively easing Wednesday.

they are volatile and only a leading indicator, not a fundamental dataset. like u said, isolated industry activities can have a significant effect on the figures.

i bought after the announcement of these figures and the breif reaction to them (AUD/USD falling) knowing it was pretty much useless information in the current situation.

to me the above expectation result this month only set up the index for really terrible data next month. if orders are up, and the economy is down - stocks will increase, reducing durable good demand in the future. increasing stocks is not the same as increasing 'proper' investment (which is good). stocks building is a sign of future demand problems in an economy.

Expect Fed funds futures and Treasury prices to take a smack on the data. Maybe...I thunk... but as a non-economist I am possibly way off the mark??? ... and the early response seems to back that up... off the mark that is..

All the set-ups came together, so I am still comfortable with my position and reasoning... at the moment.. why did you go long.. fundementally-economically??? (and I envy your ability to pick what is, for now, the bottom.

i went long after the data announcement on business investment, as i believed the figures were as much increased stock as increased capital goods.

the australian economy is much more broadly asian based (especially china + india) rather then directed towards the USA which it was moreso in the past. therefore i see our current economy as much stronger due to demand for our dirt from china.

soft commodities are strengthening and gold is rising. australian exports.

our companies have long term contracts for minerals with china, who are growing at 12%.

on top of that we have the very high chance of an interest rate rise next week, and a fed cut in america this week.

we have strong demand for our exports, and infrastructure investment plans by our government to help increase them.

the USA government has dumped the idea of investment in favour of consumption for the last 5+ years. while the dollar held up against massive budget deficits thanks to the willingness of overseas finance; current deficits will be harder to finance, and may well just result in more inflation in the USA.

inflation will lead to further weakening of the USD, as it loses it value more quickly then other trading partners thanks to inflation.

inflation differential will soon replace interest rate differential as the major factor in influencing exchange rates. there may still be short term appreciations after an interest rate rise, but the inflation it is fighting will erode the currency much more then the short term boost.

asset market inflation is hidden inflation. its about to make itself known in the physical market.

australia can battle the inflation genie (through a rate rise) the USA economy is stuck in 1973. low growth, high inflation and ineffective economic policy because of it.

to get out of recession the USD must depreciate to reduce american imports and increase their exports. this will also help reduce inflation via international competitiveness.

our time may come, as a primary input supplier to china, when their export demand reduces because of current events. however most of our mineral contracts are long term and there is a lot of domestic slack in demand china could pick up for its products to reduce any effects of a reduced export demand.

am i making sense, or just rambling incomprehensible jargon?

 

[Stormin_Norman]

oh and i forgot. the defense selling of the AUD; but it keeps bouncing back. look at the shape of the candles near the top of the resistance range. theyre bearish shaped candles, but moving positively. which means to me, there is constant downward pressure from sellers, but increasing demand from buyers matching that.

eventually the sellers will stop. i hope i wake up above 8900 tomorrow morning.

 

[Kauri]

they are volatile and only a leading indicator, not a fundamental dataset. like u said, isolated industry activities can have a significant effect on the figures.

i bought after the announcement of these figures and the breif reaction to them (AUD/USD falling) knowing it was pretty much useless information in the current situation.

to me the above expectation result this month only set up the index for really terrible data next month. if orders are up, and the economy is down - stocks will increase, reducing durable good demand in the future. increasing stocks is not the same as increasing 'proper' investment (which is good). stocks building is a sign of future demand problems in an economy.



i went long after the data announcement on business investment, as i believed the figures were as much increased stock as increased capital goods.

the australian economy is much more broadly asian based (especially china + india) rather then directed towards the USA which it was moreso in the past. therefore i see our current economy as much stronger due to demand for our dirt from china.

soft commodities are strengthening and gold is rising. australian exports.

our companies have long term contracts for minerals with china, who are growing at 12%.

on top of that we have the very high chance of an interest rate rise next week, and a fed cut in america this week.

we have strong demand for our exports, and infrastructure investment plans by our government to help increase them.

the USA government has dumped the idea of investment in favour of consumption for the last 5+ years. while the dollar held up against massive budget deficits thanks to the willingness of overseas finance; current deficits will be harder to finance, and may well just result in more inflation in the USA.

inflation will lead to further weakening of the USD, as it loses it value more quickly then other trading partners thanks to inflation.

inflation differential will soon replace interest rate differential as the major factor in influencing exchange rates. there may still be short term appreciations after an interest rate rise, but the inflation it is fighting will erode the currency much more then the short term boost.

asset market inflation is hidden inflation. its about to make itself known in the physical market.

australia can battle the inflation genie (through a rate rise) the USA economy is stuck in 1973. low growth, high inflation and ineffective economic policy because of it.

to get out of recession the USD must depreciate to reduce american imports and increase their exports. this will also help reduce inflation via international competitiveness.

our time may come, as a primary input supplier to china, when their export demand reduces because of current events. however most of our mineral contracts are long term and there is a lot of domestic slack in demand china could pick up for its products to reduce any effects of a reduced export demand.

am i making sense, or just rambling incomprehensible jargon?

The value of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile.

Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of U.S. output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become skeptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The data is highly volatile as well, some volatility is eliminated with the Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation figure, making it the more closely watched indicator.

The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months.

Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation

The Durable Goods Orders figure is also reported excluding transportation expenditures. Orders for items like civilian vehicles or aircrafts are fairly expensive and fluctuate idiosyncratically, distorting the Durable Goods Orders figure. Such goods are excluded to provide a better measure of durable goods orders.

Do you realise what time the data was released???

Puzzled
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Some analysts are trying to discount the durable goods number as an aberration as they cling to their view that the Fed will cut 50 bp this week. Clingon...as Kirk said..
and yes ,I am still short... waiting... the stop line on my charts isn't ever placed where it actually is.. a long story
Cheers
.......Kauri

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Do you realise what time the data was released???

nope?? i assume it was during the USD rally at about 12 GMT. i couldnt think of any other reason why the market dropped at this point.

"Examples of durable goods include cars, appliances, business equipment, electronic equipment, home furnishings and fixtures, houseware and accessories, photographic equipment, recreational goods, sporting goods, toys and games."

its not only investment goods.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Some analysts are trying to discount the durable goods number as an aberration as they cling to their view that the Fed will cut 50 bp this week. Clingon...as Kirk said..

i think a bigger factor is they just cut in an emergency meeting last week.

2 cuts in 2 weeks is silly. it takes 18 months for fiscal policy to have an effect anyway. why not do it all at once.