AUD

[nizar]

Re: AUD is a short

AUD hitting new highs after the FOMC announcement. Wait till the RBA raises.

Parity by next year anyone?

Wayne,

Dont u think maybe a rate rise by RBA is abit factored in?
Custom House (the people we deal with) think so.

 

[CanOz]

Re: AUD is a short

AUD daily trendline resistance @ 8041

hit that today & bounced off.

trendline support is 7750 on daily.

Im shorter than a dwarf with no legs

Curious how this played out for you MT, not looking to criticise but genuinly interested. Have had the chart up on screen all day.

Cheers,

 

[money tree]

Re: AUD is a short

still short, position wasnt too large but still a tad painful.

chart looks toppy now but what do I know

I didnt bother setting a stop since aud was heading down when I went to bed. But had I done it anyway, the slippage may have killed me since it was such a quick move.

I dont mind holding for a while.

RBA unlikely to raise (though a rise is priced in) because:

- inflation is low
- stronger dollar hurts exporters more
- trade deficit doesnt need help to grow
- election year

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: AUD is a short

Wayne,

Dont u think maybe a rate rise by RBA is abit factored in?
Custom House (the people we deal with) think so.

I'm not Wayne but I note that the markets do seem to be pricing in a 25 basis point rise by the RBA soon and have moved in that direction quite a bit in the past few days.

 

[wayneL]

Re: AUD is a short

Wayne,

Dont u think maybe a rate rise by RBA is abit factored in?
Custom House (the people we deal with) think so.

Well, a hold by FOMC was factored in... didn't stop a reaction on announcement.

 

[ducati916]

Re: AUD is a short

eur gbp nzd et al are irrelevant.

relationship between AUD & USD in question.

the chart has spoken.

it matters not whether AUD is strong or USD is weak as the cause.

What nonsense. All currencies are *relative* based on their fundamentals, thus an arbitrage will be set up if the relationships are violated through any of the currencies moving from relative parity.

Actually I agree with old BSD here, currencies are a very dangerous game for retail traders, the variables are just too many to realistically keep track of.
I guess you won't be seeing his money.

jog on
d998

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: AUD is a short

impossible eh?

well, do a bit of research. I have a 100% success rate on my forex calls posted here. voodoo indeed

100% wake up man you're dreaming

so the other 99 you dont post huh ha ha ha

r u worth 1 billion dollars yet?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: AUD is a short

What nonsense. All currencies are *relative* based on their fundamentals, thus an arbitrage will be set up if the relationships are violated through any of the currencies moving from relative parity.

Actually I agree with old BSD here, currencies are a very dangerous game for retail traders, the variables are just too many to realistically keep track of.
I guess you won't be seeing his money.

jog on
d998

Very much agree that is why I don't touch FOREX too many unseen fundamentals can change the chart quicker than you can log in!

 

[wayneL]

Re: AUD is a short

I don't know whether this is the right thread for this, but as FOMC does affect currencies...:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/03/near-panic-at-fed.html

Mish's FOMC Announcement Translation

We are unanimously scared half to death by the implosion in housing, defaults and foreclosures. Our biggest fear is a recession. A jobs slowdown would worsen that situation dramatically.

We are also somewhat concerned by rising food prices but those prices are soaring primarily because of Bush administration policy handouts to farmers and the ethanol industry. Economic policy can not really cure problems caused by poor administrative decisions. It would be a mistake to try.

Because of blatantly bad policy decisions by us, notably Greenspan's praise of subprime lenders, promotion of ARMs at the exact worst time for the consumer, support of toxic loans, and most importantly our previous decision to slash interest rates to 1%, we created the current property bubble. We now admit we did that on purpose. We just never expected the bubble to get this out of hand. We created the housing bubble on purpose to bail out banks that were at risk due to poor loans made to the dotcom industry. Now to bail out the housing industry we feel compelled move to a more neutral stance.

With consumer debt levels where they are, we are going to do everything in our power to keep asset prices high. If we could, we would even reinflate the housing bubble. But that gig is up unfortunately and with it any real hope for jobs expansion.

Now is not the time for a recession. We are in this fix because there is never a time for a recession. We hope to forestall recessions forever because if we can't all hell will break loose on the downside.

 

[wayneL]

Re: AUD is a short

 

[Kauri]

Re: AUD is a short

I don't know whether this is the right thread for this, but as FOMC does affect currencies...:

Love the way that it is not what is said during the address but the interpretation of words and phrases used, the tone, and what is hidden but implied betwen the lines.. I dread the day that Bernanke inadvertantely breaks wind mid-speech, the resultant crash would make 29 look totally insignificant..

 

[wayneL]

Re: AUD is a short

 

[wayneL]

Re: AUD is a short

Love the way that it is not what is said during the address but the interpretation of words and phrases used, the tone, and what is hidden but implied betwen the lines.. I dread the day that Bernanke inadvertantely breaks wind mid-speech, the resultant crash would make 29 look totally insignificant..

Thanks Kauri! I can now no longer get the image of that man farting out of my mind LOL

 

[wayneL]

Re: AUD is a short

Barry Ritholtz offers up a more truthful version of the FOMC statement.

Of course, they can't say what they really think. The Fed knows how important confidence is, and they do not want to do anything to discourage consumer sentiment or spook the psychology of the markets.

If they were unconcerned with those issues, the statement might look more like this:

"The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators have been much worse than what we were hoping for: Housing is a bigger mess than we anticipated; Business Capex is heading south, as are durable goods. Retail sales have been punk for 3 months running, (and what' with those excuses from the retailers? Too hot! Too cold! Lunar eclipse!) Don't even ask about the Automakers. We expect the economy is likely to continue to soften until it slips to about a 1.5% GDP.

Even worse, recent readings on inflation have been elevated. We were hoping that inflation pressures would moderate as the economy stabilized, but no such luck.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern is that we have painted ourselves into a corner, and we are running out of options. On the one hand, Inflation remains an ongoing concern, as medical costs, food, and energy remain problematic. On the other hand, it is apparent that growth is cooling rapidly. Housing has flipped from a net positive for consumers and job seekers to a net negative.

All told, we are running out of options until one or the other of these gets much much worse. Future policy adjustments, therefore, will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. As noted above, if GDP slips below 1.5%, we will be shifting our bias towards easing. Appreciably worse that 1.5%, and we will have to act on rates to prevent a recession -- inflation be damned.

On a final note, the FOMC has taken up a collection, and as a retirement present, we are sending former Chairman Alan Greenspan to a lovely spa on Fiji Island for the foreseeable future. Since there are no satellite feeds, internet connections or any off island communications at all, the CHairman can thank us when he returns -- preferably, around December 2008.​

Don't hold your breath waiting for that dose of reality . . .

 

[money tree]

Re: AUD is a short

How amusing.

Those who either failed as a forex trader or who lack the balls to even try it are preaching about how silly the rest of us are.

Its very easy to shut your mouth when someone is making good calls then stand up and shout "haha idiot" when they make a bad call. Easier still to lack the courage to post your own calls.

Forex trading wipes the floor with equities. I've posted why many times. ignorance is bliss I guess.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: AUD is a short

How amusing.

Those who either failed as a forex trader or who lack the balls to even try it are preaching about how silly the rest of us are.

Its very easy to shut your mouth when someone is making good calls then stand up and shout "haha idiot" when they make a bad call. Easier still to lack the courage to post your own calls.

Forex trading wipes the floor with equities. I've posted why many times. ignorance is bliss I guess.

I agree,
I am sick of CFD providers not allowing shorts or GSL's on certain stocks. Forex is different.

 

[ducati916]

Re: AUD is a short

How amusing.

Those who either failed as a forex trader or who lack the balls to even try it are preaching about how silly the rest of us are.

Its very easy to shut your mouth when someone is making good calls then stand up and shout "haha idiot" when they make a bad call. Easier still to lack the courage to post your own calls.

Forex trading wipes the floor with equities. I've posted why many times. ignorance is bliss I guess.

Nonsense.
It is simply being pointed out that you simply don't understand the relationships and technicalities of the market you trade.

Others do not trade it because they understand the inherent difficulties of the Fx market.

jog on
d998

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: AUD is a short

Others do not trade it because they understand the inherent difficulties of the Fx market.

jog on
d998

Duc,

Would you care to list the inherent difficulties for me please?

Snake

 

[money tree]

Re: AUD is a short

Nonsense.
It is simply being pointed out that you simply don't understand the relationships and technicalities of the market you trade.

Others do not trade it because they understand the inherent difficulties of the Fx market.

jog on
d998

This is an arrogant and condescending assumption.

I scored a "high distinction" in my Securities Institute Economics exam. So Im well aware of what drives these markets, which is why I have been able to make so many great calls. Im not sure what qualifies a "doorman" as an expert, perhaps you could enlighten us?

If you dont understand forex then leave it for those who do. This forum is to teach people about forex, and we dont need clowns whining "ooh its too hard"

Do us all a favour and research my past posts on forex eh?

success is the best revenge

 

[money tree]

Re: AUD is a short

double top on 30 min chart, 8090

any INTELLIGENT thoughts?