Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AUD

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AUD daily trendline resistance @ 8041

hit that today & bounced off.

trendline support is 7750 on daily.

Im shorter than a dwarf with no legs :cool:
 
Re: AUD is a short

If Aussie interest rates go-up next RBA meeting you may have a new ass to match your new legs!

What currency are you short against ?

USD, EUR, JPY?

Purely on a chart or do you have some actual reasoning?
 
Re: AUD is a short

Well since AUDUSD is the only pair currently priced around 8041, it should be self explanatory. :banghead:

As I said, the chart is the reason.

Im sure the long term target is 82 or so, but you would have to be brave to say AUD will never see sub 80 again.....
 
Re: AUD is a short

I should add I have no view!

Currency prediction (particularly in the short term) is voodoo in my view and impossible to predict.
 
Re: AUD is a short

impossible eh?

well, do a bit of research. I have a 100% success rate on my forex calls posted here. voodoo indeed :rolleyes:
 
Re: AUD is a short

money tree said:
impossible eh?

well, do a bit of research. I have a 100% success rate on my forex calls posted here. voodoo indeed :rolleyes:

You shouldnt be posting on here then pal; you should be on a 120ft yacht in the Bahamas trading my money.

Why don't you work for a hedge fund with your amazing abilities?

2% and 20% baby- think of the cashflow stemming from a hot hand of 100% correct calls on the AUDUSD.

Send me your trading history of accurately 'picking the currency' - do it for another 50 calls and I will send you millions of dollars to manage on behalf of my clients and myself.

A PM will be fine.

Thanks
 
Re: AUD is a short

BSD said:
You shouldnt be posting on here then pal; you should be on a 120ft yacht in the Bahamas trading my money.

Why don't you work for a hedge fund with your amazing abilities?

2% and 20% baby- think of the cashflow stemming from a hot hand of 100% correct calls on the AUDUSD

Send me your trading history of accurately 'picking the currency' - do it for another 50 calls and I will send you millions of dollars to manage on behalf of my clients and myself

A PM will be fine.

Thanks
:cool:
 
Re: AUD is a short

BSD said:
I should add I have no view!

Currency prediction (particularly in the short term) is voodoo in my view and impossible to predict.

C'mon BSD, what are your experiences with this and why do you say that?

Cheers,
 
Re: AUD is a short

money tree said:
AUD daily trendline resistance @ 8041

hit that today & bounced off.

trendline support is 7750 on daily.

Im shorter than a dwarf with no legs :cool:

MT, what's your shorting range? It's currently 8015, so what price would you not go short ie missed opportunity? Do you have a close out figure?
 
Re: AUD is a short

i do agree with you money tree..
audusd is bearish ( correction ) for the short term..
i think it`s time now for USD to show some strength against all currencies...
i think Bernanke got some important words for USD ..

lets see what will happen..

cheers
 
Re: AUD is a short

CanOz said:
C'mon BSD, what are your experiences with this and why do you say that?

Cheers,

Predicting the earnings of BHP requires a 'guess' of about 25 inputs - a BHP analyst has a reasonable chance of being right on an earnings forecast

Predicting the sentiment guiding the PE applicable to BHP is pure guestimation - being an equity trader (guesser) is therefore hard.


Predicting the forces applicable to a currency requires a 'guess' of about 1000 real variables (many countries, many relationships) and then an equally impossible 'guess' of sentiment.

Punting the AUD for a number of years I quickly worked out that equities and bonds were far easier than currencies - let alone horses and football.

Most currency analysts will tell you they are essentially BS merchants that offer clients 'stories' and not 'predictions'.

Name three well-known currency analysts....

Warren Buffett and about a million goldbugs/USD doomsayers have shot their cocks-off over the last five years despite excellent fundamental reasoning

Anyone who claims anywhere near 100% accuracy from calls on currency can happily send me their numbers by PM and I will gladly contact them regarding an equity injection

I can give you 'my story' on the AUDUSD in the next month but it is probably as relevant as my cabby's or my ironing lady's view on the AUDUSD

My current view is that relative interest rates are the greatest driver of currencies - despite relative risks (previously represented by CADs, trade deficits, equity flows, GDP etc) - hence my view that if the RBA raise rates the AUD will rocket, but who can call that accurately in the short term?
 
Re: AUD is a short

BSD said:
Predicting the earnings of BHP requires a 'guess' of about 25 inputs - a BHP analyst has a reasonable chance of being right on an earnings forecast

Predicting the sentiment guiding the PE applicable to BHP is pure guestimation - being an equity trader (guesser) is therefore hard.


Predicting the forces applicable to a currency requires a 'guess' of about 1000 real variables (many countries, many relationships) and then an equally impossible 'guess' of sentiment.

Punting the AUD for a number of years I quickly worked out that equities and bonds were far easier than currencies - let alone horses and football.

Most currency analysts will tell you they are essentially BS merchants that offer clients 'stories' and not 'predictions'.

Name three well-known currency analysts....

Warren Buffett and about a million goldbugs/USD doomsayers have shot their cocks-off over the last five years despite excellent fundamental reasoning

Anyone who claims anywhere near 100% accuracy from calls on currency can happily send me their numbers by PM and I will gladly contact them regarding an equity injection

I can give you 'my story' on the AUDUSD in the next month but it is probably as relevant as my cabby's or my ironing lady's view on the AUDUSD

My current view is that relative interest rates are the greatest driver of currencies - despite relative risks (previously represented by CADs, trade deficits, equity flows, GDP etc) - hence my view that if the RBA raise rates the AUD will rocket, but who can call that accurately in the short term?

Ever watch a tick chart? Uncanny how it bounces off those trend lines!

Cheers,
 
Re: AUD is a short

CanOz said:
Ever watch a tick chart? Uncanny how it bounces off those trend lines!

Cheers,

Yeah - sack the thousands of analysts, traders and central bankers.

Replace them with chartists focussed on 'tick charts'.

Send me the results and I will invest.


You guys aren't Robinson Crusoe here.
 
Re: AUD is a short

BSD said:
Yeah - sack the thousands of analysts, traders and central bankers.

Replace them with chartists focussed on 'tick charts'.

Send me the results and I will invest.


You guys aren't Robinson Crusoe here.

BSD we are here to share analysis and i hope you will share us ur insights.. :)

I agree with you that intrest rates playing important rules these days and all the reports say that the FED going to leave the intrest rate constant but they say that Bernanke will mention about the real estates and that would mean to traders that the fed soon will decrease the intrest rate, but from my experince during the last years i found that they always (greenspan)try to mention some positiove words to save the american dollar when its getting weaker. In the last two weeks dollar were gettin weaker and it hitted 8041 AUDUSD and 1.3338 EURUSD and that tells me that commercials and large speculators want to close their long positions and short for a correction for at least 250 pips for eurusd and maybe 100 - 150 for AUDUSD..
 
Re: AUD is a short

AUD hitting new highs after the FOMC announcement. Wait till the RBA raises.

Parity by next year anyone?
 
Re: AUD is a short

Just touched 80.8

Can we get a big number move (1c) like the good old days?
 
Re: AUD is a short

money tree said:
well its now broken out on the daily, alas I was wrong.

we may be in a new era :eek:

I think it's more to do with the USD being FUBAR.

AUD is not looking as flash against EUR GBP et al
 
Re: AUD is a short

eur gbp nzd et al are irrelevant.

relationship between AUD & USD in question.

the chart has spoken.

it matters not whether AUD is strong or USD is weak as the cause.

AUDUSD just became untradeable. it may take months for a new pattern to emerge.

trading off daily trendlines is a high probability trade, but not foolproof.
 
Re: AUD is a short

USDX FWIW (It told a different story)
 

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