AUD/USD

[notting]

the sad bit is this is destroying australia's future slowly but surely...

True.
Ausi is gone!
You wait till they start voting themselves into parliament.

This was an oeur d'oeuvres -

http://melbournecitycouncil.blogspot.com.au/2007/07/million-dollar-entourage-john-sos-cost.html

Every one loved him!

This particular article doesn't mention the secret deals So gave to Chinese interests and involvement in blocking figures who new about the Chinese and were trying to raise awareness of the horrors being committed in China and it's occupation and genocide in surrounding countries.

 

[CanOz]

Am I thinking too much? it seems by many aspect the market is a very dumb beast ..

As long as the AUD has some correlation on and off to the China story then i'd expect a reaction along with it.

I agree that it doesn't make sense...

 

[Smurf1976]

So far as China's imports of Australian energy commodities are concerned and taking a long term (20 year) view, a few points.

Any developed economy needs a source of energy, and practically all economic activity requires energy in some form. This is a given. So long as China's GDP remains stable or growing, they're going to need some way of powering it.

There's a few options, eg locally we have WA and the NT heavily reliant on gas, we have Qld, NSW and Vic heavily reliant on coal and there's Tasmania with it's hydro power. And that's just for electricity, heat etc. There's also transport, primarily fuelled by oil in most places (including all Australian states and most countries overseas with very few exceptions).

A few facts and figures about China's energy use at present:

18% from oil, of which 10.5% is imported oil and 7.5% is domestically produced oil (production of which is fairly flat). China's proven oil reserves are equivalent to 16 years' of current domestic production.

4% from gas, of which 1% is imported gas and 3% is domestic gas. China's gas reserves are equivalent to 32 years of current domestic production.

6% from hydro, which represents about a quarter of the hydro-electric potential in China (that is, three quarters of it is undeveloped).

1% from nuclear, wind, solar etc.

71% from coal.

Now factor in that various forecasts suggest a doubling of China's energy consumption over the next 20 years. Refer attached image (source = Energy Information Administration (US Government)).

It's hard to see how China could actually achieve such growth without an "all of the above" strategy. More gas, much of it imported. More oil, most of it imported. More hydro to the extent that they can build the dams quickly enough. More nuclear. And yes, most likely more coal as well. Take coal out of the picture and you'd need absolutely ridiculous levels of growth in LNG (gas), nuclear and hydro which probably aren't achievable in practice.

So whilst I can see short term fluctuations, unless China's economy falls in a heap they're going to need more of everything so far as energy is concerned. Unless they can ramp up domestic coal production (maybe they can? They already produce about 50% of world output) then that's good news for Australian exports of LNG certainly, uranium probably and possibly coal too.

It's not so good for the environment of course, but this is the AUD thread not the climate change thread.

 

[Bill M]

I bought the ETF USD today on the strength of the AUD. I may have jumped the gun a bit as I believe it could head towards .926 area but I have seen this scenario play out many times before. That is, it takes a run up then out of the blue it makes a sudden reversal.

It is gambling for me, I am gambling it will make a reversal at around that .92 level then it could head towards that .85 level at which point I will sell. Of course this is all speculation and it could just as easily bust through that .926 level and keep on going to .95, however my bet is on.

 

[qldfrog]

did the same bet a while back at 1AUD=1.06USD and on this experience added a more last month at 0.91 but was probably too early..
wait and see..I lost my 6 month bet on put option for a crash of asx 200 this month so do not take my view as a recommendation

 

[Valued]

I am long AUD/USD. Today worked out pretty well. I am holding for a shot at 0.95+. It's at about 92.5 now so looking good. I opened at 90.2 and added more at 90.3 on a pull back. I am looking for another opportunity to add more as well. Even if we got to 0.95 I would still hold a bit, make sure there is a stop in place to protect profits, and hopefully get a shot in at parity. If we get to parity I would have added a lot more on pull backs along the way.

 

[qldfrog]

I am long AUD/USD. Today worked out pretty well. I am holding for a shot at 0.95+. It's at about 92.5 now so looking good. I opened at 90.2 and added more at 90.3 on a pull back. I am looking for another opportunity to add more as well. Even if we got to 0.95 I would still hold a bit, make sure there is a stop in place to protect profits, and hopefully get a shot in at parity. If we get to parity I would have added a lot more on pull backs along the way.

any reasoning behind being long on aud?
iron ore and met. coal are going to boom, we are going to sell???(flats in sydney to China?)
or just the fact we have less debt than us/europe?
when I go shopping at woolworth, even my canned corn comes from thailand and the ham from o/s, even paper
When is the last time i could buy something made in Australia?
or just following trends?

 

[Valued]

any reasoning behind being long on aud?
iron ore and met. coal are going to boom, we are going to sell???(flats in sydney to China?)
or just the fact we have less debt than us/europe?
when I go shopping at woolworth, even my canned corn comes from thailand and the ham from o/s, even paper
When is the last time i could buy something made in Australia?
or just following trends?

Just technical reasons. I don't have any fundamental reasons. I don't understand enough about economics to do that. It just looked like it was going to breakout on the chart from a purely technical standpoint.

 

[qldfrog]

Just technical reasons. I don't have any fundamental reasons. I don't understand enough about economics to do that. It just looked like it was going to breakout on the chart from a purely technical standpoint.

fair.trying to apply value or some economic sense in the current market seems quite futile
forex or share market too

 

[PipSafe]

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 2014.02.25, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened.Buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 0.93006.Right now in daily and H4 time frames, the price is under 5-day moving average that shows the descending trend and warns about more descending.Price stopped by reaching to the important resistance level of 0.93000 and after trying to break this resistance level twice that was unsuccessful, the price created a top price under that level.

Currently in daily time frame with formation of Shooting Star(also doji) candlestick pattern (the failure of buyers in reaching to the lower prices) price has been stopped from more ascending and there is a possibility of formation of a top price and finally descending of the price.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 0.86595 and the top price of 0.93006 with ideal ratios of 38.2 to 224.2 that warns about descending of price from the D point of this pattern. RSI indicator is in saturation buy area and confirms the current top price, also wars about formation of a top price. Generally until the top price of 0.93006 is preserved, price has the potential of descending.

 

[damdin]

Generally is AUD out of woods, yet? Now I have a long term ascending view on this one.

 

[Wysiwyg]

there is a possibility of formation of a top price and finally descending of the price.

I will support your view with another perspective and that being what appears (careful word choice) to be a broadening triangle (top) which is generally viewed as a bearish top. We shall see.

 

[Valued]

I will support your view with another perspective and that being what appears (careful word choice) to be a broadening triangle (top) which is generally viewed as a bearish top. We shall see.

View attachment 57478

OR it could be a market so strong that the reaction is horozontal and the latest up move is a move breaking out of the trading zone... depends how you look at it. I still hold AUD/USD long and it's doing fine so far. I think it would be sub-optimal to exit an already profitable and open position right now. I have tightened up my stop though to 0.92 since there is a bearish view there but I tend to be bullish. The stop just protects my profits but I will be giving back 91 pips if it doesn't go my way. The potential upside is quite large if it moves towards parity though, which is the reason why I continue to hold.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD Primary & Monthly cycles

My view was that the AUD would continue lower, as part of the Dilernia Principle with the
Primary cycles.However, it has done the opposite, and has broken out within the Monthly cycles in the last
month of the Quarter, which suggests the trend will continue higher in the 2nd Quarter.

This suggests that the trend will continue up into the April highs, and into the 2014 Yearly 50% level @ .9449.


http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/gold-silver-7th-april-2014-monthly.html

However, my view is that is will follow a similar pattern as GOLD (click the above link)

The current price action is following a retest pattern, where it retests last year's breakout that often aligns
with the Yearly 50% level. Once that completes, my view is that the AUD will resumes its downward trend
towards the 2014 lows.

 

[Wysiwyg]

OR it could be a market so strong that the reaction is horozontal and the latest up move is a move breaking out of the trading zone... depends how you look at it.

The potential upside is quite large if it moves towards parity though, which is the reason why I continue to hold.

As it turned out your perspective was correct and price pushed higher.

 

[qldfrog]

the speed of teh aud rise in the last day was amazing, but I remain long USD at medium term, so I see that as an opportunity to load at 0.935/0.95
based on my past record, this is p[robably wrong

 

[Valued]

Yea, good day for me since I still hold. I was considering adding more when it was in the trading range after the rise but didn't. I have been very careful with this position since it's actually very large right now compared to my capital. Stops are remaining tight since it's starting to get to be a lot of money for me. That's the problem when you open up a large position initially due to the low risk (since I opened very close to where my stop would be) and then now it's made such a large up move it's a significant amount of money in real terms. I am still in this for the hopes of hitting 0.95 - 96, then assessing whether we can see a further move towards parity.

 

[PipSafe]

AUD/USD during the recent week was in a Down trend that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 0.92273. Currently in daily time frame price with touching the ascending trend line (made of 4 price levels) and forming a bottom price has prepared a field for ascending. (sellers used this level to leave their trades).Right now price in short time frames such as H4 and H1 is above 5-day moving average and warns about price increase in short period of time.

As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 0.94600 and bottom price of 0.92273 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 38.2% and 224% that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern.Stoch indication in Daily and H4 time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the 5th point of ascending trend line and warns about ascending during the next candles. Generally according to the current situation, until the bottom price of 0.92273 is preserved, price has the potential for reformation of downtrend.

 

[Valued]

Hmm well the going long on AUD/USD was fun while it lasted. I have turned around and gone short now. It's actually a little annoying since news reports are out saying the dollar is going to go test parity and CBA says it will go up. I never really cared about what they thought (otherwise I wouldn't have been long on the last up move) but at the same time I always felt a little uncomfortable being long then turning around to go short.

I have started off small though and up a little already. It's gone down. Here is to hoping it doesn't shoot back up for another hammer. I think it's solid though. AUD futures looked bearish and USD futures had a nice run up and look bullish. If they are anything to go by, a short term long on AUD/USD should work out nicely... especially once I move my stop to break even ASAP!

The news disagrees with me though, and I have been wrong before. It's probably a little uncertain for most people but I felt that the stop loss didn't have to be placed too far above so it's a very nice risk reward ratio. Anyone who is signed up for The Chartist know if Radge has anything out on the AUD/USD? I know you can't reveal if he is bullish/bearish on it but if he has something up on it I might pay the $30 to take a look.

 

[qldfrog]

what a fall/crash!!! back as I write to 92.5c and going