So did I, got out half at 2.53 and then other half at 2.51.Got burnt badly today with NVN, why the heck is FDC offering a premium?
It seems to be heading south though, wonder if RBA decision will move it this arvo.
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It seems to be heading south though, wonder if RBA decision will move it this arvo.
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I got out at 2.51 this morning, and changed course for NVN/FDC and trade the merger
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Well this has been re-occuring for me again!! This time, no matter what I do I cannot resolve it. I have even tried deleting my database and rebuilding (there goes 4 hours!)...but the problem re-occurs on the second or third restart of PTF.
I have emailed PTF support but they just say that it's probably due to having small cap stocks in my database (I am sure we all have some small stuff in there now given the mining service stocks falling?). I would think that if this was the case then many others would have this issue too...
I noticed the error log contains a system.NullReferenceException: Object reference not set to an instance of an object.
I am almost to the point of buying a new computer/laptop setup, this has my head ready to explode and is causing my trading to become erratic!
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Here's a good pairs trade
Havn't got an SD on this but CBA looks pretty ripe for a longer term trade vs. the other big 3!
Havn't got an SD on this but CBA looks pretty ripe for a longer term trade vs. the other big 3!
skc
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Got burnt badly today with NVN, why the heck is FDC offering a premium?
Double ouch! I haven't traded NVN since it's code change. But did the REIT space went crazy in the last week or two.
Seriously... we are looking at GMG trading at 3.35% historical yield unfranked. This is just 110 bps above the cash rate. I wonder if it's ever traded at this thin a margin before.
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Crazy isn't it! And it went flying again this morning! I got a trade on it (SCP/GMG) and made a modest 1.9% target intra-day. It kept going and would have offered over 3% but this market is just bonkers right now, I am happy to take targets quickly as stocks keep flipping and reversing (except the ones that just keep going against me
)IOF is out of whack with just about every other AREIT, I am thinking the takeover speculation brought about by FDC and NVN has reignited the fuel for IOF getting gobbled. I hopped on as this rumour hasnt had much substance to it and it doesnt report till late Feb, allowing time for a trade with CHC which also reports late Feb.
Still getting spanked by CSR but GWA did perform well today which slightly helped.
Closed out my DSH/HVN for a stinker of a loss, as well as CRZ/REA
Have started avoiding quite a few signals for reporting season now, so the focus on directional trading increases...
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Crazy isn't it! And it went flying again this morning! I got a trade on it (SCP/GMG) and made a modest 1.9% target intra-day. It kept going and would have offered over 3% but this market is just bonkers right now, I am happy to take targets quickly as stocks keep flipping and reversing (except the ones that just keep going against me
IOF is out of whack with just about every other AREIT, I am thinking the takeover speculation brought about by FDC and NVN has reignited the fuel for IOF getting gobbled. I hopped on as this rumour hasnt had much substance to it and it doesnt report till late Feb, allowing time for a trade with CHC which also reports late Feb.
Still getting spanked by CSR but GWA did perform well today which slightly helped.
Closed out my DSH/HVN for a stinker of a loss, as well as CRZ/REA
Have started avoiding quite a few signals for reporting season now, so the focus on directional trading increases...
Nice to see some volatility out there, added shorts on GMG and IOF today, I too don't expect much merger going on before the reporting season, fingers crossed.
Flipped again on FDC/NVN today as NVN is now trading at a premium to the implied takeover price, which again makes no sense at all
skc
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I think we've been conditioned to take 1.5-2.5% on these REIT pairs and now these are blowing out.
I traded FDC/SCP today when it went down 5%. May be market is looking for some cash component in the deal?!
But my big mistake was closing BWP/FDC yesterday when FDC didn't fall on making the bid...
Another one that has been crazy is APA... only yielding 4.12%, vs DUE @ 6.66%. I know there are differences in growth profile etc... but that's a 50% difference in yield.
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Seems like I am not the only one scratching my head at the moment!
What was a great month for January has turned into a moderate drawdown for Feb - but most pairs could revert so still time for patience.
What was a great month for January has turned into a moderate drawdown for Feb - but most pairs could revert so still time for patience.
Personally I find that stocks are good to trade before reporting season even into the report. If a stock has been underperforming usually any bad news is priced in and the report does little damage and vice versa, an outperforming stock is expecting good reports. The main issue I have found over the past 4 years in reporting season is stocks running up on good reports. I still trade through reporting season but make sure I am not shorting a good report. This is not advice just my experience.
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Yes People have taken a lot of money out of oil stocks and have been jamming this in anything by the looks of it .
Not going well this year have been cutting to much I will just have to see it through.
currently have
CSR Limited: leighton holdings
Macquarie Atlas Roads Limited:Transurban Group
and US
Mercury General Corporation(NYSE:MCY): Hartford financial
Mercury is reporting and has been going up, will wait and see if it goes down after to a normal level.
Not going well this year have been cutting to much I will just have to see it through.
currently have
CSR Limited: leighton holdings
Macquarie Atlas Roads Limited:Transurban Group
and US
Mercury General Corporation(NYSE:MCY): Hartford financial
Mercury is reporting and has been going up, will wait and see if it goes down after to a normal level.
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I'm with you in CSR, so heres to hoping that comes down.
With your MQA/TCL trade - I let this one pass as MQA is having some issues with the french government on the toll increases so there could be some unexpected events unfolding there. Also it is heavily exposed to the Euro, whereas TCL is more exposed to the USD.
That's interesting that you trade multiple markets, how have you found profitability for each one?
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Trading around FDC/NVN merger seems rewarding so far, closed it midday for some quick profit and in it again at the close. Takeover premium currently at 1% but it's probably not worth the effort any lower than that.
APA is on my blacklist as I always feel that they are onto something.
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Yeah good to hear your with me on CSR. Yeah if MQA didn't have Macquarie in the name I would worry (name seems to gold in Australia) but after about a week of pain due to France not raising the road tolls they seem to have steadied out.
As for the US I will let you know. I'm pretty new to this game.....
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Looks like I'll be going through a drawdown period over the reporting season after a number of trades are staying divergent for me and reporting dates are approaching.
Not good timing but will have nothing to do but improve once I start revving back up in March.
Not good timing but will have nothing to do but improve once I start revving back up in March.
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Closed trade: CSR Limited: leighton holdings good profits (well for me anyway)
Closed trade: Mercury General Corporation(NYSE:MCY): Hartford financial Very good profits - this only went the right way as Mercury missed there profit forecast and were also at 52 week highs, by the end of the night I went for 500.00 in the red to about %650.00 in the black
Closed trade :Macquarie Atlas Roads Limited:Transurban Group, good profits (about $500) took a while....
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NVN/FDC merger to be at 0.8225
Current ratio is 0.8417. Scope there for another good trade, assuming no curveballs.
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Yes it's doable but probably needs more love and care as it can revert intra-day then bounce back. I still don't understand why NVN is trading at a premium, as I don't think there will be a cash component offered given the size of NVN and FDC, and if the deal blows up then shorting NVN is the way to go.
skc
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I don't know why FDC is sold down so much either. It's still yielding whatever it is yielding. It completely missed out on the post rate cut madness engulfing the sector.
There were some words about NVN getting alternate bids but we are not seeing downward pressures on the potential bidders like GPT, MGR, SGP etc.
To me the pairs trade is on long FDC / short sector in general. That way you mitigate the specific risks of NVN getting an alternate bid, although also missing out on the gains if the bid is dropped.
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Well I took on the risk of the curveball. Scaled in with three parcels today...and as the day wore on I got a bit worried as to why FDC was falling so far...although the whole sector was weighed a fair bit today.
Ended up closing it out in the auction and captured 0.70%.
Still some big divergences that are not closing, CQR popped up early and I thought perhaps it was starting to catch up but then got smashed all day and divergence got even bigger.
IOF has stopped outperforming but failing to fallback as of yet.
Directionally speaking, I thought that MGR at 2.18 was a pretty good chance for a short this morning although I didn't manage to hold it down to the lows..I was happy to cover at 2.13. The report had nothing outstanding and guidance was only narrowed rather than upgraded. Not much to justify a surge in addition to the oustanding run it has already had.
CSR was being kind this week, until it roared back up today...trade is at time expiry for me now so that will be a big loss to close out tomorrow
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