Sometimes the analyst up/downgrades really just like to kick you in the butt...
BLD/CSR got me good this week with a downgrade on BLD and upgrade on CSR
Then
CHC/DXS also got me with CHC downgraded while DXS had a positive note released
Here is a reply to my query re PTF and "after long weekend" problems:
We're testing our next product with the development team this week and next. Will get back to you asap.
Best
Paul
Pairtradefinder.com
Finally, something is happening. So will post updates as I receive.
Anyone having much luck with the current environment? Ive had some very big swings going on and mostly in my favour
BTT for example was just a gift on the open. Massive spike! A bit weary trading this sector given the situation, but some research into geographical exposures can give a basic roadmap.
One more day for the financial year to get the equity curve point northeast!
Yes I had BLD/CSR too and closed it on the BLD downgrade. Could have held the CSR short for the rest of the day much better than I did.
Hi SKC,
I think you've mentioned where you get your broker down/upgrade info before but to save half an hour searching can you remind me?
Cheers.
Latest from PTF.
"We should have v3.27, a debugged and streamlined version of the current app, ready in the next week. We are looking at launching PTF Pro in October." That was dated 26 July 2016.
Interesting. My data still having massive issues so hopefully this is fixed in the update...
I wont be subscribing to PRO unless I see some substantial improvements in either support function or an outright fix.
Thanks Freddy. Although I think my problem is external to PTF.
I have realised that when PTF stops importing data, that I simultaneously cannot access finance.yahoo.com - which is where the data is pulled from.
I can access au.finance.com - so I think the problem is that Yahoo7 (the Australian version of yahoo) is blocking access to the US version, thus causing me data problems. I cannot fathom that I am the only user having this issue, although it seems that way
Like several others over the past few years, I've just spent the past couple of weeks working through this thread in it's entirety. I've been slowly pulling together a pairs system for the past few months and it's a treasure trove of meaningful implementation advice that's not readily covered in the literature.
Massive respect to you guys who have taken the time to post and answer questions here, particularly skc, SilverRanger and VSntchr
I'm down to implementation now and wondered if any of you could offer guidance on the following things:
1. Technical - When your systems trigger a trade based on the BB/Z-Score/Ratio indicators, but the price series has actually converged, do you take the trade betting on divergence, or do you skip it? For example...
... Here you can see that the 21 day Z-Score has blown out to 2.3, but the actual spread of the price series has converged to 0.28. In this scenario would you short BWP (Blue) long CQR (Red) regardless, or call it a spurious signal?
The attachment didn't show probably but I am going to guess what you are asking...The Z-score is the only number that PTF uses to generate a signal, but it certainly doesn't mean it should be the only criteria (criterion?) for you in your trade decisions. One number you should always check is the profit potential... i.e. what profit (in % terms) can be achieved if the Z-score was to mean-reverse? This will vary depending on the pair's volatility. But if it's too small then it may not be a trade worth taking.
2. Fundamental - I'm curious about the limits of what you guys would consider valid fundamental linkage (forgetting Cap., P/E, P/B etc., just talking about core business activities), for example...
2.1. SLK / SGR - Both consumer discretionary, both heavily tied to tourism etc., but clearly not as good a pair as something like SKC / SGR.
Not a pair I'd trade. Tourism seems to be a decent enough common driver, but I won't trade it because the vastly different size and liquidity of the 2 stocks
2.2. ARF / AOG - ARF hold child care and AOG retirement villages. By the numbers they cointegrate nicely at 99% with a half life of 13.9, correlation of 0.91 and the time series match up reasonably enough, but is the fundamental business enough to keep you away?
Again not something I monitor because ARF/AOG's borrow availability aren't always there for me. Childcare is always a regulatory risk but the stats from what you've said sounds OK.
2.3. FET / Everything - Another good example like 2.2 is FET versus everything, where it cointegrates nicely with a number of office, retail and industrial REITs, but has a core business around child care facilities.
As above
2.4. BWP / Everything - Similar to above.
I have traded this a lot with other REITs, but not since the recent news about several Bunnings closures.
FWIW, I tend to stick with the larger REITs which have good liquidity and viewed by the market as yield play with low earnings volatility. There are many second tier names in REITs and they all have slightly higher risks due to sector concentration, lack of liquidity, lack of shorts, asset concentration risks etc. And because they are in the second tier they often aren't as responsive as the major REITs in terms of interest rate expectations.
Having said all that, your pairs trading will evolve continuously, adding new pairs, new entry criteria, discovering new niche etc. May be there's a good niche in the second tier REITs for the sole reason that not too many people are looking.
Start your new pairs short, get to know it's traits, click through it's report in reporting seasons and expand your trade candidates Ask questions here but ultimately own your own pairs database and trades.
Any feedback you guys have would be awesome.
Did anyone else get the "valued member" email offering the new version at "no cost"
Did anyone else get the "valued member" email offering the new version at "no cost"?
Obviously this offer could come in any shape or form - but right now if I had have bought into their last offer (buy another license to get 50% off the new version)...id be feeling a bit cranky.
.
Strange, I only received one email and for fun watched the video.
Maybe I missed it but I heard nothing about IG Markets and he went through the list of improvements and bug fixes.
Your post makes me wonder if we are talking about the same software.
Also see I'm a "valued member" too so guess we would/should have received the same email. Actually, you can see here the video I watched:
http://special.pairtradefinder.com/upgrade/
Okay yep, different video!
I saw this video: http://special.pairtradefinder.com/offer/
I retract some of my statements above based on this! My apologies. However, it doesnt change the fact that support has been weak and the program is still very laggy for me.
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