ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

[peter2]

Yes I agree that today's market action was perfect for the T3 exit strategy. This price level (0.61) was also my personal trades T2 at which I sold 1/2 of my position. I can leave the remainder with a TS at BE (0.41). I'm tempted to buy some back at the lower price. As I write this the price is not so low (ask 0.54).

This has been a huge swing as you mention tech/a. After this mornings exits I went back to bed. I trade the first few hours of the US markets so I don't watch the ASX open.

If price didn't get to my limit sells I would have placed a sell order to protect the 1R open profit. I would not have expected price to fall below 0.50 and if it did sell to protect the 1R open profit. This order would have been triggered as price did fall below 0.50.

Wow, price is now back at 0.565 (vol 21M). The demand is very strong. I'm very tempted to start another trade but don't like buying at this time of day. I'll look at this option later on > 2:30pm.

edit: Checking other charts I notice that the open MMS-cfd trade has turned into a bigger result than AU8.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Trade closed and a personal reminder that re-entries "rock".

MMS-cfd: Sold today at 17.90, Result +4R (+$3210)
The sell price in the spreadsheet has been adjusted down (17.81) to account for interest paid over the 29 days this trade was open. This result was also reduced due to the max position size limit of 25K.

This trade was closed in this thread as I've exited a similar (non-cfd) trade in my own account.

This thread's portfolio is starting to look a little thin and the market still bullish.
Time to hit the arvo scans.

 

[peter2]

A couple of my trades have experienced huge intra-day price swings. I've seen it multiple times in SSM and today it happened to ASL. This is why I don't have my exit stops in the market.

I can't explain these bid clean outs.
Is someone trying to clumsily trigger sell stop orders? Is there a newbie insto broker?
Any other ideas?

 

[Rypieee]

I call them toilet bowl flushes, water level drops, and then water level rises.

No idea what happened with SSM and I doubt it is a newbie insto broker pulling the trigger... Looks like weak retail holders had a part in the frenzy.

If anything, I reckon there is intent behind the flush, especially on negative publicity (NBN rollout delayed) and capitalizing on the discounted shares. Kind of smart if a broker was orchestrating that to accumulate because they just have to open the flood gates a tiny bit and let retail investors push it down for them... Less capital on the table for the broker.

 

[kid hustlr]

Pretty scandalous price action really. I always view it as bullish but for the life of me can't understand how it can blip 15% like that. I honestly think it's just a thin market but the skeptic in me thinks it's an an insto buyer who knows it's a thin market and goes hunting.

EDIT: fwiw Commsec doesn't show the same low in SSM that your chart does which tells me the low was on ChiX (I think). Quite the arb opportunity!

 

[Country Lad]

I don't think it was anything untoward with the ASL trades Peter, the asks far exceeded the bids for most of the day so and the momentum was very much on the sell side. Probably a bit of panic by a couple of the red cordial brigade. I haven't looked at the trades on the other one.
Here are the trades as they went lower and then recovered.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Re-entry into a recent favourite.

AU8: Bought at 0.57, iSL at 0.47.
The entry was a little late as the trigger was >0.55. I selected a conservative SL as this is not one of our normal BO-NH setups. I'm anticipating a medium term trade this time.

I'm still going through the pm scan results.

 

[Rypieee]

Did not managed your sell @ 0.61 on my initial position but managed to top up at 49 cents - near lows of 47s. Longer term trade for me as well with AU8 but if trend breaks or momentum fades, it will be a sayonara

 

[Porper]

We got stopped out of ASL on the intraday raid...if that's what it was...who knows. Like you say this is happening with a few stocks...and not particularly low volume ones either. If it keeps happening then ASX may investigate...not holding my breath though. Some people can't leave their stops out of the market, either psychologically or because of time restraints - so they are at a disadvantage.

 

[peter2]

EOW 144 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +117.0% (31% invested in 4 trades)
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl. divs and f credits) +16.5% (past 144 wks)

This weeks sells: AU8 (+4R), MMS (+4R)
This weeks buys: AU8 twice

The market ended flat for the week, while the portfolio had a little fun with a newly listed small cap stock (AU8). This week's "fun" lifted the portfolio to another equity high. We've started another trade in the same stock and wait to see what happens next.
ASL: This weeks volatility has triggered our exit next open.

Outlook: WU DU. Bullish, but we still have to be careful.
We've heaps of cash and portfolio heat is only 2%. We definitely want more trades, but they must have good RR potential.

 

[PeterJ]

Hey PeterJ, did you like that "boom" in AU8 today. Straight to our T2 level.
View attachment 84952 Looks like I have to watch the open tomorrow.

I actually missed it,
busy at work
but a very nice trade
and still holding for now

 

[peter2]

Trading update:

I'm reluctant to start new trades while the general market goes sideways. I don't trade for the "action" or for something to do. This sideways movement should be good as it'll form shallow consolidations that we can use to buy break-outs in the strongest stocks. If the market falls then we've protected our portfolio.

There's been lots of sloppy price action in mining service stocks and many of the day trading rallies in the small caps are reversing quickly.

AU8 trade update: Price continues to go higher as we anticipated (currently 0.75). The T2 for the current trade is 0.78 and we'll place a limit sell above this but below the 0.80 whole number. The aim is to catch a spike higher this afternoon or a gap up open next day. If this doesn't happen then that would indicate the exuberant demand has weakened and we'll remove the sell order, protect our +1R open profit and see what happens next.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Trade closed

AU8: Sold at 0.795 for a +2.2R result.
Price traded at the limit sell before I could remove it. I won't falsely claim that I'm still riding along.
It's looking likely to continue higher.

Now we definitely need to find a few more opportunities.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: New trade

WFD: Bought at 8.50, iSL at 8.20. Position size limited to 25% (28K).
I must be desperate buying a REIT, but it seems this sector is on fire. This is purely a short term trade.



Edit: AU8 was 83-84 when I posted. Soon after it drops to 74-75.
Did someone on ASF sell a few million of them after I posted?

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Another REIT trade (nulla nulla will be pleased)

ABP: Bought at 4.17, iSL at 4.00.
Position size limited to 25% (28K). Another short term BO trade trying to take advantage of the current demand for REITs.


Others I considered DTL (low volume), SCG (not another REIT !), CGF-cfd,
TWE (surely over extended). Noticed a bit of a nibble at FBU on my reversal list.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: That nibble turned into a bite. New trade.

FBU: Bought today at 6.50, iSL at 6.20.
Most definitely an aggressive reversal setup. I set the trigger at 6.45 (limit 6.50) so it's a BO entry tactic. An acceptable RR if other investors think FBU has fixed it's internal problems.


ps: DTL, mentioned yesterday also BO-HR today. The daily traded volume is too low to put it in this thread.

 

[peter2]

EOW 145 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +120% (100% invested in 5 trades)
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl. divs and f credits) +16.6% (past 145 wks)

This weeks sells: AU8 (+2.2R), ASL (+0.5R)
This weeks buys: WFD, ABP, FBU

The XAO stays within this tight 100pt range and forms another weekly doji price bar. Our portfolio took another quick profit from AU8 which added a bit more to our total.

We've started two trades on the property sector because it's one of a few sectors that are in demand. Both property (XPJ) and consumer staples (XSJ) are making new highs.
(XSJ = WOW, WES, TWE, CCL, A2M, BAL, BKL, GNC, MTS)

Outlook: WU DU. Bullish, but we understand that the index can't go higher without the banks and rising commodity prices. Buying break-outs will get us into those stocks that are making new highs but the follow through cannot be relied upon when market sentiment is sluggish.

 

[Rypieee]

While the prices won't agree with me, I suspect most REITs are performing due to upcoming dividends?
FET, GOZ, ARF, CHC - some REITs i know of, are going ex-div in 21 days

Would be wary of Shopping centre REITs and Childcare Centre REITS due to the tough operating environment (Shopping centres) and GE8 recent announcement of low occupancies in their business - potentially leading to higher risk of renewals.

 

[peter2]

@skyQuake Thank you for the WFD news!

Serendipity is word that I reserve for occasions like this. Others might call it "dumb" luck.

I was having difficulty finding BO setups that offered an acceptable RR as most charts are over-extended. Since last week I've been scanning the whole market including ETFs, trusts, REITS etc. in order to find something to put in this thread. That's how I noticed the current demand for the REITs via XPJ.

@nulla nulla Thanks for your input in the REIT thread. I see your posts every week and they keep me informed about that sector. I hope you have a bottom draw full of WFD shares.

I was wondering what to sell this afternoon as this portfolio was fully invested with no available cash. We'll see what the local market offers for our WFD shares when they trade again.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Trades closed.

EHL-r: Sold at 0.24. Result -0.6R (-$600)
This re-entry didn't go higher. However we'll keep monitoring the chart for another BO setup.

WFD: Sold at 9.70. Result +3.7R ($3888)
This portfolio sold to realise some cash for other opportunities. I'd prefer to wait 5 - 10 days for a better price, closer to 10.00. Price will fluctuate with the AUDUSD.