ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

[peter2]

Testing, 1 2 3 can you read me? Trial post.

I was getting an error and unable to see page 50 after a few posts were removed. If I couldn't post then I'd be unable to mention all the great trades we've been in this week. BAL is going ballistic and we're not on board. ASL is thinking about getting to our +2R target (2.29) and I've sold it at 2.25. CAJ has just gone higher also woo hoo!

But if I can't post then you won't know what's happening.

 

[Rypieee]

Testing, 1 2 3 can you read me? Trial post.

I was getting an error and unable to see page 50 after a few posts were removed. If I couldn't post then I'd be unable to mention all the great trades we've been in this week. BAL is going ballistic and we're not on board. ASL is thinking about getting to our +2R target (2.29) and I've sold it at 2.25. CAJ has just gone higher also woo hoo!

But if I can't post then you won't know what's happening.

Hi Peter2,

I can see your new post

 

[peter2]

EOW 128 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +61.2% (26% invested in 3 trades)
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl. divs and f credits) +8.7% (past 128 wks)

This weeks sells: ASL (+1.6R)
This weeks buys: nil

Friday's selling ended the week on a downer, but price remains in the sideways range. It will be interesting to see if there's further selling next week. I'm looking to find buying setups in stocks that are not as correlated to the general market sentiment. That's hard, as prolonged selling eventually hits everything.

ASL: Watched as price approached our +2R target level (2.29) but sold at 2.23 to take profit (+1.6R). This was a discretionary exit to grab the above average result knowing that we started this trade later than we should have. The market provides two lessons for us.
(i) Better late into a trade than never. Trends go further than we expect and it's always nice to get something when expectations are low.
(ii) Try not to be late into a trend. Our job is to find newly started trends and get into them asap for the best results.


Outlook: WD DD Our market filter remains bearish and the market remains volatile. If the market falls further that won't be good for long only short term traders, but it will create good buying opportunities for medium and longer term traders.

 

[peter2]

BOOM! up more than 35% this morning.

Good to see this portfolio get a nice surprise and @galumay expressed it well. His post was the first notice I'd seen of today's price spike since the trading halt. Price is currently above our +3R level and I'll be using that (0.91) as our new exit trigger.

Price is still rising, now at 0.94, now 0.96. Could we get 0.98 (+4R!) YES SOLD at 0.98 (+4R)

 

[peter2]

Serendipity. I love it.
The NWH trade in this thread is over and I'm not a bit concerned that price is now 1.00. We locked in +3R, then allowed price to go higher and grabbed the +4R result.

You may notice that NWH was in my personal weekly portfolio with the weekly sell stop at 0.60 (chart).
I've personally sold 10K at 1.00 and will use that cash to buy my $10K allotment (at 0.68) in the retail SPP. Unfortunately this thread will not see the benefits of the SPP.

NWH is now at 1.03 it won't get to 1.045 (+5R) ! Time to go for a walk and resettle the emotions.

 

[peter2]

Who goes for a walk at times like these! Moments like these should be savoured while hot. The momentum portfolio is at a new equity high and this one trade has saved our hide as it's only the fourth winning trade in the past 19 completed trades. Our current batch of 20 was looking at it's first loss until the ASL and NWH results came in. Phew! That was close.

No results until the EOW as things can change. Time to look for our next opportunities.

 

[Wyatt]

Serendipity. I love it.
I've personally sold 10K at 1.00 and will use that cash to buy my $10K allotment (at 0.68) in the retail SPP.

As the SPP is only for $5m, that's not many to go around, especially for eligible holders who sold today.
With such a gift on offer, and considering the announcement notes on scaling back, what are the views on getting an allocation in the SPP. Last time in this situation I missed out

 

[skc]

As the SPP is only for $5m, that's not many to go around, especially for eligible holders who sold today.
With such a gift on offer, and considering the announcement notes on scaling back, what are the views on getting an allocation in the SPP. Last time in this situation I missed out

At the last annual report there are almost 7,000 shareholders in NWH. Given the difference in subscription price and the last price (40% premium), you'd have to be very financially stretched to not put your money into the SPP. So at $5m maximum and 80% participation you get about $1k each. Obviously actual allocation is up to the Board, but if it's commensurate with the size of your existing holding then it's unlikely to be a terribly meaningful percent.

Obviously there's no point being unhappy about it, given the gains seen in the share price today.

 

[Wyatt]

At the last annual report there are almost 7,000 shareholders in NWH. Given the difference in subscription price and the last price (40% premium), you'd have to be very financially stretched to not put your money into the SPP. So at $5m maximum and 80% participation you get about $1k each. Obviously actual allocation is up to the Board, but if it's commensurate with the size of your existing holding then it's unlikely to be a terribly meaningful percent.

Obviously there's no point being unhappy about it, given the gains seen in the share price today.

View attachment 72259

Thanks SKC,
The insto shares come online in a few days, so we'll see what happens then. Its hard to be unhappy about it all, especially atm

 

[peter2]

Trading update: New trade

ALQ: We've recently started a trade in the weekly portfolio and now we have one in this portfolio.
Bought at 8.05, iSL at 7.70. Initial target is 8.45 (~+1R)
Price has been trading above a recent BO and looks likely to go higher with a bullish market.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: New trade.

FBU: Bought at 7.66, iSL at 7.30. Initial target 8.00
Price has been consistently going up after the bad news selling spree. Price BO-NH yesterday but I waited for the scheduled news today. I consider this setup as a reversal and I need to see a HL. There is one on the chart but I should really wait for another once price has broken through the sloping resistance line (SRL).

 

[kid hustlr]

Pete,

Interested in your stop placement. Any reason it's not below the low of the recent HL?

 

[peter2]

FBU setup: A conservative iSL would be at 7.20 creating the downside risk of 0.45. Sometimes I reduce this to 80% knowing that an 80% pull-back is rare and if price falls this far it will probably fall further. Placing the iSL at 7.30 is a little aggressive and indicates that I'll be managing the trade a little more aggressively as well.

Both setups in ALQ and FBU leave little room for a corrective pull-back and if price does fall for two days the trades will be closed quickly. I've started these two trades because they're attractive low sized risk setups with acceptable RR.

I'm hoping to grab a quick +1R - 1.5R on these trades for this thread but I think they'll provide an acceptable RR for a medium term trader employing a larger iSL size.

Outlook: Three banks (CBA went XD) popped up in this afternoons 10d BO scan. That makes me optimistic about a bullish BO in the index.

 

[peter2]

EOW 129 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +68.1% (58% invested in 4 trades)
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl. divs and f credits) +10% (past 129 wks)

This weeks sells: NWH (+4.0R)
This weeks buys: ALQ, FBU

The volatility remains high for another week and the index remains in it's recent range. The seasonal reports have contributed to the daily volatility and as short term traders we must be aware of scheduled news that may impact our trades. The index has been stuck in this range for 13 weeks. It's been 14 weeks since our last equity high. However our successful trade in NWH has us at a new equity high!

NWH: It started as a normal BO-NH that subsequently didn't look very promising. You read about the exit as it happened. The above average win was purely due to luck. We happened to be in the trade when the company announced positive news. This win is our largest dollar win (due to compounding) but not our largest R multiple win (DWS +5.1R Aug2015).

Outlook: WD DD. Our market filter remains bearish and we have to be mindful of that. I was starting to get a little bullish but Friday's fall put paid to that inclination. I never attempt to guess what the market may or may not do. Our market filter indicates our course of action. We're still trading but doing so with a strong defense.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Trade closed

ALQ: Trade closed at today's open (7.73) as price closed yesterday below our exit trigger (7.70).
Naturally price has rallied today. Our weekly trade is still open. Result -0.9R.



Edit: We can always re-buy if price closes > 8.00 again.

 

[peter2]

This trade completes another batch of twenty. This latest batch has an abyssmal W% of only 20%. That's only 4 winners in 20 trades. If you wanted evidence that I'm a lousy trade picker then this is it. However in spite of the poor W% this batch made a small profit (+1.6R, +$1018). Yes we got lucky being in NWH at the right time.

We're trading to earn profit not prove that we're great stock pickers. I really don't care about my W%. It's super important to keep the losses small.

This batch contains losing sequences of 7 and 8. Would you have kept on going if these were your results?

This batch also took longer due to the "trying" market conditions.

 

[peter2]

Trading Update: New trade

EPD: Bought today at 0.595, iSL at 0.55.
This is a late entry as the BO-NH was weeks ago. This has recently reports good results and price has remained higher. Trying to select stocks that are impervious to index volatility.

 

[peter2]

Trading update:
I've added MLD to the weekly portfolio. Last weeks bullish bar and HL met our requirements. Price has been in a range for approx one year so it's time for a move higher.

AMP went XD today (0.145). I've adjusted the sell stop down 0.15 to take this into account. This is the only reason I'll ever move a exit trigger down. Even so, AMP is looking very weak and our trade is likely to be closed soon.

Sorry this should be posted in the weekly thread.
I did consider MLD for this short term thread but the MD is too thin at times.

 

[debtfree]

Should this be in the weekly thread Peter? Thanks anyway.
Just seen it

 

[peter2]

I hope less experienced traders (I dislike the term "newbie") are following @tech/a as he monitors the price and volume action in UPD looking for another trade. He's looking for a very small initial risk as this creates larger R multiple winners. This is a very active trading style. It's also great fun stalking these types of trades.

I thought it might be of interest to describe my trading style, which is slightly different using the UPD chart. My last setup was the BO-NH at 1.10. This required an in the market pending buy stop order that triggered a buy when 1.10 was traded. The initial SL would have been placed at 1.00 or just below. As I didn't have the order itm I've missed the trade opportunity. Buying afterwards skews the RR adversely.

I need more sideways price action (creating a box pattern) or a retest of the prior BO at 1.10 (creating a higher low). However if pressed to trade UPD I'd place a pending order to buy when price trades at 1.28 (limit 1.30) with an iSL at 1.19. This would be a BO-NH setup and entry to take advantage of the new demand for UPD. This setup is closer to tech/a's style than mine.



My setups are slightly larger (more bars) than tech/a's as I prefer to see levels tested rather than just daily lows and highs being tested.

The best trading style is the one that works best for you. Both tech/a and I can make our trading styles work for us.