ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

[peter2]

grah33: I agree with you that there is a subtle difference between a BO of two equal highs and a BO of one high. I also prefer to use the BO-HR.

Another tip when looking at your charts, "look left, structure leaves clues". Not my quote, but I like it. VSntchr's BO level can be drawn touching another older high.

There is a tech/a type buy setup on the chart. The stock price is way above his preferred price range though.

 

[VSntchr]

A couple of charts that are worthy of a look in my opinion:
Breaking out: NXT, GEM
Watch: CCV, MNY (this sector has a pending government review for SACC)

 

[davidosan]

Hi guys,

Was wondering if I could get some feedback on LIT? Small volume atm but it looks like it could breakout any day.

Thanks.

 

[Telamelo]

A couple of charts that are worthy of a look in my opinion:
Breaking out: NXT, GEM
Watch: CCV, MNY (this sector has a pending government review for SACC)

HZR - Nice strong bullish close with a pick up in volume/momentum... should see it make further new high's tomorrow imo

Investor's only have till 29/03/16 to snap up their option entitlements @1c (this is the gift of a lifetime imo) with 30c exercise price (noting expiry 31/12/18)

26 buyers for 850,813 units vs only 6 sellers for 63,675 units

please dyor and due diligence

Cheers tela

 

[Telamelo]

HZR - Nice strong bullish close with a pick up in volume/momentum... should see it make further new high's tomorrow imo

Investor's only have till 29/03/16 to snap up their option entitlements @1c (this is the gift of a lifetime imo) with 30c exercise price (noting expiry 31/12/18)

26 buyers for 850,813 units vs only 6 sellers for 63,675 units

please dyor and due diligence

Cheers tela

HZR nice +9% surge today to 39c! at all time high's.

35 buyers for 1,029,793 units vs only 6 sellers for 136,456 units

please dyor

Cheers tela

 

[peter2]

EOW 56 update: ASF Portfolio +19.6% ( 73% invested in 4 trades ) XAO -12.7% (past 56wk)

Our portfolio is treading water, like the general market. Although the banks are starting to sink again.

JHX: Price touched our exit trigger yesterday but closed above. If price trades back at 17.50 we will sell asap or next open.

There hasn't been much activity in this thread as our trades have stalled. I'll keep an eye out for other short term opportunities, without being tempted into day trading ASX stocks.

 

[Nortorious]

EOW 56 update: ASF Portfolio +19.6% ( 73% invested in 4 trades ) XAO -12.7% (past 56wk)

Our portfolio is treading water, like the general market. Although the banks are starting to sink again.

JHX: Price touched our exit trigger yesterday but closed above. If price trades back at 17.50 we will sell asap or next open.

There hasn't been much activity in this thread as our trades have stalled. I'll keep an eye out for other short term opportunities, without being tempted into day trading ASX stocks.

View attachment 66121

Very much like my portfolio Peter. I have only had two new trades in the past month: long on NXM and AWV. The rest are treading water and some are providing some dividends in the meantime.

An interesting phase ahead for the market. Let's see where it goes. My charts still have it pointing downwards, it did make an effort to break the down trend but appears to have failed.

 

[Telamelo]

Very much like my portfolio Peter. I have only had two new trades in the past month: long on NXM and AWV. The rest are treading water and some are providing some dividends in the meantime.

An interesting phase ahead for the market. Let's see where it goes. My charts still have it pointing downwards, it did make an effort to break the down trend but appears to have failed.

A bit off topic.. but thought I'd share the below trading/investing tips with you all as applicable to both newbie's and us a little more experienced one's alike ......... Enjoy and Good Luck! for the trading week ahead.


TRADER PSYCHOLOGY

1. Be flexible and go with the flow of the markets price action, stubbornness, egos, and emotions are the worst indicators for entries and exits.

2. Understand that the trader only chooses their entries, exits, position size, and risk and the market chooses whether they are profitable or not.

3. You must have a trading plan before you start to trade, that has to be your anchor in decision making.

4. You have to let go of wanting to always be right about your trade and exchange it for wanting to make money. The first step of making money is to cut a 'losing trade' short the moment it is confirmed that you are wrong.

5. Never trade position sizes so big that your emotions take over from your trading plan.

6. "If it feels good, don't do it." – Richard Weissman

7. Trade your biggest position sizes during winning streaks and your smallest position sizes during losing streaks. Not too big and trade your smallest when in a losing streak.

8. Do not worry about losing money that can be made back worry about losing your trading discipline.

9. A losing trade costs you money but letting a big losing trade get too far out of hand can cause you to lose your nerve. Cut losses for the sake o your nerves as much as for the sake of capital preservation.

10. A trader can only go on to success after they have faith in themselves as a trader, their trading system as a winner, and know that they will stay disciplined in their trading journey.

--Bring your risk of ruin down to almost zero.

RISK MANAGEMENT

1. Never enter a trade before you know where you will exit if proven wrong.

2. First find the right stop loss level that will show you that you’re wrong about a trade then set your positions size based on that price level.

3. Focus like a laser on how much capital can be lost on any trade first before you enter not on how much profit you could make.

4. Structure your trades through position sizing and stop losses so you never lose more than 1% of your trading capital on one losing trade.

5. Never expose your trading account to more than 5% total risk at any one time.

6. Understand the nature of volatility and adjust your position size for the increased risk with volatility spikes.

7. Never, ever, ever, add to a losing trade. Eventually that will destroy your trading account when you eventually fight the wrong trend.

8. All your trades should end in one of four ways: a small win, a big win, a small loss, or break even, but never a big loss. If you can get rid of big losses you have a great chance of eventually trading success.

9. Be incredibly stubborn in your risk management rules don’t give up an inch. Defense wins championships in sports and profits in trading.

10. Most of the time trailing stops are more profitable than profit targets. We need the big wins to pay for the losing trades. Trends tend to go farther than anyone anticipates.

--Develop a winning trading system that fits your personality.

YOUR ROBUST METHOD

1. “Trade What's Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen.” – Doug Gregory

2. Go long strength; sell weakness short in your time frame.

3. Find your edge over other traders.

4. Your trading system must be built on quantifiable facts not opinions.

5. Trade the chart not the news.

6. A robust trading system must either be designed to have a large winning percentage of trades or big wins and small losses.

7. Only take trades that have a skewed risk reward in your favor.

8. The answer to the question, “What’s the trend?” is the question, “What’s your timeframe?” – Richard Weissman. Trade primarily in the direction that a market is trending in on your time frame until the end when it bends.

9. Only take real entries that have an edge, avoid being caught up in the meaningless noise.

10. Place your stop losses outside the range of noise so you are only stopped out when you are likely wrong.

www.traderplanet.com/articles/view/165953-30-great-trading-rules/

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ASSAD'S RULES OF TRADING

Trading rule No 1. Never chase. Forget about the Dollar loss for a moment as the real damage comes from the distraction it creates.

Trading rule No 2. Wait for the break. Most traders buy inside the range, get impatient and as a result they sell on first sign of strength which ends up being the breakout.

Trading rule No 3. Don't ride the ticks and Dollar profits. It creates emotional turmoil and is draining. Prevention is best cure. Takes the fun out of the game.

Trading rule No 4. Price action trumps everything. Management lie or mislead but price action (money flow) never lies.

Trading rule No 5. Sell the news or a least sell partials. Markets discount everything and over the long run you will be better off.

Trading rule No 6. Always stay in control. Do NOT put yourself in news related coin toss trades, where the risk cannot be managed.

Trading rule No 7. Mind your own business, avoid conflict. If you take offence because someone has disagreed with your trade, then you are such a precious little petal.

Trading rule No 8. Do NOT set targets as all this creates is a premature EXIT. Run a trailer and let that take you out.

Trading rule No 9. Minimise whipsaw at all costs. It's a trader killer. The root cause of trading failure more often than not, starts with whipsaw.

Trading rule No 10. Do NOT buy stretched breakouts. More often than not they recoil back into the range to flush traders out.

Trading rule No 11. Start with long term charts and look to catch major breaks/moves. These tend to follow through and it makes it easier to run with winners.

Trading rule No 12. DO NOT trades Forex short-term. It is a mugs game, news driven by central banks. It is like betting on the greyhounds.

Trading rule No 13. Turn trading rules into habit. There is no point in having trading rules if you dont apply them!

Trading rule No 14. And the most important; only tell your wife about your losers.

Trading rule No 15. Hit those stops, no questions asked. Hitting your stop and watching a stock rally hurts but not htting your stop and watching the stock fall hurts a hell of alot more.

www.asenna.com.au/asenna/node/34842

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Cheers tela

 

[Telamelo]

EMC - Nice bullish chart breaking out to new high's imo with tightly held register being a bonus too

*underlying market depth looks quite strong showing:

70 buyers for 2,678,292 units vs only 13 sellers for 221,887 units

Please dyor as always

Cheers tela

---------------------------

29/03/16 Emefcy is pleased to announce the initial shipment of SABRE modules to its first commercial municipal waste water treatment plant thereby achieving the first commercial goal three months ahead of schedule. The plant is expected to be commissioned by the end of Q2 calendar 2016. Once operational, the plant at Ha-Yogev Israel will provide important commercial validation of Emefcy’s SABRE solution at a municipality which will use the treated water for irrigation, providing a reference site for municipal, agricultural and water reuse customers.

“We are proud to ship production units from our factory to our first commercial customer,” said Emefcy CEO Eytan Levy. “All 18 SABRE modules required for the plant have been manufactured and our production line is ready to support the manufacture of thousands of similar modules per year.”

“We expect this first commercial plant to prove to prospective customers and partners that Emefcy’s technology is ready to change the world of waste water treatment,” said Richard Irving, Executive Chairman.

“This is another important step in our journey, to be followed by international deployments, sales of water instead of product, and our entry into the China market.â

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Daily chart shows XAO rolling over below 5100 and provides a warning for us to protect our short term momentum portfolio.

EGH: Fell on thin market depth. We will sell this if it closes <=0.59.
JHX: Very close to being stopped out at 17.50.
NVT: Price falling back to BO level. Not very concerned, although we'll raise our exit trigger to 4.80.
JHC: Price going nowhere and we might even earn the div soon (7/4).

 

[Telamelo]

AVG volume/momentum breakout to new 52 week high's @57c (shows breakout on 5yr chart as well)

Please dyor as always

Cheers tela

 

[padman]

AVG volume/momentum breakout to new 52 week high's @57c (shows breakout on 5yr chart as well)

Please dyor as always

Cheers tela

looks like a doji on the charts now. preferably will need to break above 57c before buying.

 

[peter2]

EOW 57 update: ASF Portfolio +18.6% ( 73% invested in 4 trades ) XAO -14.0% ( past 57wk)

Another up and down week that ended down. Our portfolio lost 1% with the general market. I've raised the exit triggers on a few trades to reduce our downside exposure as the market falls. This is always a delicate balancing act as we don't want to get caught by the day to day volatility.

There is no room to move the exit stops on JHC and JHX.

This weeks buys/sells: nil

There are quite a few nice BO setups appearing and its very tempting to buy more, but this would only increase our downside exposure at a time when the general market is going down. Our plan states that we should be reducing exposure at this time not increasing it. We must sit on our hands.

I even looked at the inverse ETFs (BEAR and BBOZ) today. They would partially offset our long only exposure. I think the real reason for me looking them is that I'm itchy to buy something. Patience Peter, you're not a "desperate" pairs trader.

 

[kid hustlr]

Do you think there's any merit in being short the overall market (via BEAR) and then trading your system with 'less restriction'?

Often thought about this.

 

[peter2]

No, that is, if I understand your question.

If I was short the market without a proven edge, then I'd be gambling with that money. Overall losses from the gambling would offset the profits from the long system and I'd be worst off. A discretionary edge is a precious and very fragile thing. If I lose focus and make mistakes because I'm thinking about the short strategy, then this will be costly.

If the long only strategy is a system with a proven edge, then the short the market strategy must also have a proven edge. If both systems have an edge, then running both at the same time would enhance the profits (and reduce draw down).

So if you're asking me, is there any merit in running a long and a short system (both with an edge), then I'd say yes, but there is a catch. It's much easier for a purely mechanical/automatic system trader to run both long and short systems at the same time. A discretionary trader will have a much harder time running both systems to the best of his/her ability as one system will go against the inbuilt bias of the trader. I'm good at trading bullish reversals and trend continuations patterns in equity markets but don't know if I could create an edge shorting equities at the same time (never tried). That's why my first reply was no. Trading both long and short discretionary systems at the same time would warp my brain. I could create a market switch to indicate which system to use, but some of the best RR long trades start when the market seems to be going down. The best RR short setups are when the market is near a top and I'm looking for BO setups.

If you're asking is there any merit in having a little short side insurance and then trading the long system with a higher risk profile. Well, insurance always costs money and that will have to be paid from the long profits. Long only systems will always show a large draw down in a bear market. It's unavoidable and what I'm demonstrating (hopefully) in this thread is how one can minimise this draw down when it happens. If we were to trade with a larger risk profile, then prepare for a larger draw down.

It's much easier for me to trade both long and short in forex and futures markets because I'm looking at shorter time frame charts.

 

[kid hustlr]

Great reply Pete

 

[weird2]

Great read Peter. Personally appreciate your efforts in your posts and contribution. Cheers.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Wow, stocks are breaking higher all over this market (esp. lithium stocks). There are too many to list.

AMA: New trade Bought as it traded >0.90. iSL 0.84 support at 0.85

 

[CanOz]

Wow, stocks are breaking higher all over this market (esp. lithium stocks). There are too many to list.

Some nice underlying context there too

Model 3 Gives Musk an iPhone Moment and Big Test for Factories

 

[ukulele]

I'm following NMT and LIT, can you list some other codes on the lithium play?