ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

[peter2]

EOW 47 update: ASX Momentum portfolio +23.4% ( 70% invested in 5 trades ) XAO -15.8% (past 47wk)

End of another volatile week and the ASX looks like pausing at this level. Both the index and our portfolio ended higher this week. We've started two new trades this week as their prices made new highs. This could be the calm before another storm. I don't know.

This weeks sells: nil
This weeks buys: DTL, LPE

Outlook: remains ugly, although I'm relieved by the pause in the relentless selling. We will stick to our strategy of buying break outs and ignore the temptation of buying bargains.

 

[CanOz]

Absolutely amazing result Peter, very inspirational. Long only as well, really great results.....just imagine what a nice bull market could do for you!

 

[stock84]

Great result in such volatile market over past few months. Fingers crossed with BFC Following along...

 

[debtfree]

peter2: I do need to reorganize my spreadsheet, I had it pretty well laid out before starting to follow your threads (well that's what I thought at the time). Thanks to you I have since added columns for info I was not recording that I really needed to be aware of such as: 1ATR, #ATR at Risk, Initial Target Columns, % of Bank in Trade, Type of Trade/Reason and now I need to add the daily XAO EOD amount to construct a graph displaying my XAO - Portfolio - Exposure levels. I guess you record this each day.

I'm aware it's a bit all over the shop so to say and thought I must reorganize this properly. If I may ask, do you use or should I say have you purchased a spreadsheet already setup to the way you are organized or have you done it yourself? If you have done it yourself ok but then at the same time are you aware of a spreadsheet that's available (for sale) that is very much the same as yours. I have looked at many and most do not suit as most don't record the things that I should be aware of.

Just thinking of saving time with still not having it setup properly. I don't want to do it and find I've left out things that are needed.

I thought this would be also a important area to cover as well, if I'm struggling setting this up I'm sure there are plenty of others out there with sub par spreadsheets. I not looking for a free spreadsheet or someone doing all the formulas, I don't mind doing this at all, I just want to set it up properly to cover all that we speak about here.

I have other questions in regards to this area but I'll leave it for the next post.

Thanks ... debtfree

 

[peter2]

EOW 48 update: ASX Break-Out Portfolio +23.9% ( 70% invested in 5 stocks ) XAO -14.3% (past 48wk)

The market index rose 1.5% this week. The portfolio also went higher but gave back most of the gains today (-2% Fri). Due to a lack of sustained upward price movement I'm modifying the title of the portfolio from momentum to break-out. We are going to stay with our main strategy of buying break-outs and manage every trade according to what happens after our entry (as usual). If we see a strong move that gets close to our +2R level then we'll manage with a tight trailing exit stop to lock in most of the profit. If we see a slow ponderous move then we will manage with a wide exit stop and allow the pullbacks to form a HL. Current market conditions are creating deeper pullbacks.

This weeks sells/buys: nil

Outlook: Have we seen the low? Does it matter? If we see another good setup we'll buy it, because we've got the cash and risk capital to use. Of course if the market falls, we'll be quick to protect what we've earned so far.

This week I'm showing you another chart of our journey (% Invested each week). It's worth looking at this along with the movement of the index (XAO) in the chart above.

 

[peter2]

debtfree: I haven't replied as I thought you've answered your own questions. I add columns whenever I think the additional data might help me identify an aspect of my trading performance (both good and bad).

General data like % invested, portfolio heat, movement of the benchmark (XAO) etc . . I collate EOW only.

 

[kid hustlr]

interesting how rarely leverage has been used

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Our portfolio has weathered the selling storm quite well, until now.

TGR: Sell next open, after two large down days. My medium term exit hasn't been hit but the upward price momentum has totally reversed and signalled the exit for this portfolio.

Selling has also started in our other trades, BFC, DTL, LPE. We'll be monitoring the closes for the next few days.

kid hustler: Good observation. This is mainly due to the underlying down trend in the general market and partly due to the low level of portfolio heat used in these market conditions. We would have used more leverage if we included shorting (via cfds) in this thread. I didn't want to add another level of complexity as I don't short stock cfds myself.

 

[peter2]

EOW 49 update: ASX Momentum (?) Portfolio +21.3% ( 33% invested in 3 stocks ) XAO -14.8% (past 49wk)

Trading ASX equities for a profit gets tougher and tougher as the high volatility and thin market depth continues. Our portfolio lost 2.6% this week as the selling finally hit our stocks. Overall, the general market only fell 0.5% but there was significant profit taking in the market darlings BAL, BKL, ACX, ALL, TGR, TWE etc. I noticed there was some demand for these shares in the last hour of trading and you can see this in the EOD charts (creating weekly pinbars and tails). BAL, BKL, TWE, BGA all bounced late.

This weeks sells: TGR, ACX
This weeks buys: nil

ACX: Triggered an exit as price closed on our exit trigger (4.90). The next day's open was 4.90, but the volume was low and I didn't get all my selling done at that price. My last sale was 4.80 so I am going to include this slippage in the portfolio as a reminder that this happens to us all when we want to sell in a low volume market.

Outlook: Remains a volatile bear market that I'm reluctant to be involved in as it's very difficult to earn a profit with tight stops in these market conditions. My personal ASX stock trading has switched to the weekly charts in an attempt to avoid the daily price swings. There are bullish opportunities developing right now and if it means we trade a weekly chart to earn a profit then I don't think you'll mind.

 

[debtfree]

Peter2,

I'm not ignoring you or the thread, I'm still following with great interest and passion but getting swamped with the new venture just at the moment. Will most likely have time tomorrow to jump in with a post.

Cheers ... debtfree

 

[debtfree]

Peter2,

Peter2 wrote: "General data like % invested, portfolio heat, movement of the benchmark (XAO) etc . . I collate EOW only."

Once again this makes sense ... weekly will be enough to keep me on track, thanks. I love this graph, a quick picture telling a thousand words ... beautiful.

My comments in regards to the spreadsheet a couple of weeks ago came from wanting to tidy up my spreadsheet, over the course of the 2 threads you have mentioned quite a few things we should record and be aware of so I had a look around the web for already made trading spreadsheets and found none that really suited what I wanted and needed. That's why the question did you know of one or did you buy one that suited all your requirements.

I went back over the 2 momentum threads once again and seen your comments:

Peter2 wrote: "I keep detailed stats and record my description of the market condition when I start every trade. I also record the type of trade setup (break-out, pullback and reversal). I know my edge for each type of setup in every market condition. These stats show me that trading with the trend does improve my edge."

"I'm not going to provide anymore details of these stats as they are personal and assist me to improve my overall edge. However it should indicate the level of commitment I've made in order to be consistently profitable."

and that's fair enough as well.

Your comments below also tell me that you must construct your own spreadsheet, as you say, you add to it when needed as below:

Peter2 wrote: "I add columns whenever I think the additional data might help me identify an aspect of my trading performance (both good and bad)."

So yes, I have answered my own questions in a way.

Chasing this area up in the last couple of weeks has pushed me to find excel data forms which makes entering data easier and quicker for me but it only works up to 32 columns. I keep a record of all your trades in a spreadsheet that has 28 columns so this is perfect, I only need to fill in 8 of them as the others fill in automatically by formulas. Using this data form saves time scrolling down and clicking on individual cells across the page entering data. Probably nothing new for most out there but new for me and I find it very helpful for smaller spreadsheets.

My main spreadsheet that I want to reorganize has heaps more columns than 32 so to do this in the same manner I will have to use UserForm1 and set it up and enter formulas to make it work so to enter data the same way but this is a lot more work and time but it's a road I'd like to travel. This way I just enter the data then press the button and away it goes and into a new row and across the spreadsheet into the right cells. Once again nothing new for most but new to me.

Anyway that's enough from me but that's why the questions about spreadsheets out in the market and also what is a great list of data info we should be collecting at least to have info at our fingertips like yourself that we probably have not even thought about.

Thanks Peter for your updates, support and even a couple more tips to be aware of in the Outlook section of your last post. Very good.

Cheers ... debtfree

 

[peter2]

Trading update: Probably one day late, but it might be a prudent decision to close all our remaining trades while this panic selling continues.

DTL, BFC, LPE - Sell at next open.

If you have already sold them as their prices started lower then you've done well.

 

[VSntchr]

Trading update: Probably one day late, but it might be a prudent decision to close all our remaining trades while this panic selling continues.

DTL, BFC, LPE - Sell at next open.

If you have already sold them as their prices started lower then you've done well.

Ive had quite a few get stopped this week, BFC is one of my last ones left.
Hope you managed to avoid carnage with ACX, I had a tight stop get me out at 5.15 and was very anxious for a re-entry...clearly still waiting on that one

I have noticed certain stocks that are doing well in the current environment. SPK is one that I like, as investors head to quality in times of fear.

 

[peter2]

EOW 50 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +19.5% ( 0% invested ) XAO -18.1% (past 50 wk)

The market continues to fall and our exits have us completely out of the market.

This weeks sells: BFC, DTL, LPE
This weeks buys: nil (argh)

Mea Culpa: Yes, I have to admit that I missed the latest gold rally. I chose to ignore the many setups in the gold stocks thinking that gold was unlikely to rally harder than the minor rallies it has shown. Thinking that one knows what is going to happen is a costly bias for a trader. My scans were showing me lots of gold charts (MOY, DRM, RRL, NCM, NST) and I ignored them. Argh.

There are only two weeks left of my yearly task and seeing that we're completely in cash and I'll be away the last week, it seems that this is an opportune time to close the year off.

Overall I was going to give myself 8/10 for the work, but missing the gold rally, I'll reduce it to 7/10. That's the lot of a discretionary trader. Sometimes we're in sync with the market and other times we're not. The missed opportunity reminds me that the scans do their job and I should take the hint when so many charts in the same sector start appearing.

 

[skc]

Overall I was going to give myself 8/10 for the work, but missing the gold rally, I'll reduce it to 7/10. That's the lot of a discretionary trader. Sometimes we're in sync with the market and other times we're not. The missed opportunity reminds me that the scans do their job and I should take the hint when so many charts in the same sector start appearing.

View attachment 65860

Personally I give you 9 out of 10 for the significant alpha you've generated... and an extra point for demonstrating to the followers what is the right attitude for trading. Treating it like a business, admitting to mistakes rather than looking for something else to blame (did anyone see a single mention of bots, shorters, manipulators, CFD stop hunters, company management etc etc?), and continuously seeking improvement.

Awesome effort. Awesome thread.

 

[Ves]

Awesome effort. Awesome thread.

+1

All publicly documented and open to discussion / criticism, and communicated with a passionate, all-inclusive, friendly and hands-on attitude.

 

[peter2]

More than fifty weeks ago I volunteered to administer Pav's ASX Momentum thread as I trade in a similar manner and thought it time for me to contribute to the ASF community. Although a little disappointed by the lack of participation it has been enjoyable and rewarding.

I hope the equity curve is instructive. It shows that we earned most of our profits in a three month period and there were long periods where we broke even. We earned our profit by trading every month. If we had selected the times to trade we may have missed the best time.

102 trades were completed.
W% = 40% which is below average and again mainly due to the falling market. In a rising market the W% would approach 60%.
AW = $682 (+1.3R) This number was close to the estimate of +1.4R
AL = $299 (-0.55R) This number was close to the estimate of -0.7R
AW/AL = 2.3



2015 was a great year to learn how to trade ASX stocks. The markets presented all sorts of conditions. Our trading plans were stress tested and we came out on top. 2016 will be another great year to learn. This year we have the benefit of a stress tested trading plan. We're prepared, so bring it on.

I'd hoped to cultivate a vibrant group of people that traded or wanted to trade in a similar manner. Unfortunately this hasn't happened. Even attempts by others to stimulate interest in break-out opportunities hasn't kicked on. I don't know the reasons for this but whatever they are they're just excuses. I can only assume that most people aren't really motivated enough or become disheartened when they realise how much work/effort is involved. If it was easy .....

Outlook: The Aust economy will remain sluggish. The market can't go up without demand for the banks and the price volatility will remain high. It's time to incude other markets in our attempt to grow our capital. We've got 60K now and I'm thinking that we will take advantage of our leverage account that will allow us to trade other markets.

I'll be back in March to start Peter's Momentum Portfolio.

 

[craft]

More than fifty weeks ago I volunteered to administer Pav's ASX Momentum thread as I trade in a similar manner and thought it time for me to contribute to the ASF community. Although a little disappointed by the lack of participation it has been enjoyable and rewarding.

Peter

You have my admiration for what you have done here. Maybe the participation wasn’t as high as it could have been but that says nothing about the calibre of the thread. Sometimes it takes a while for the classics to really be appreciated. As long as ASF lives on I’m sure for many years people will stumble across and be helped on their journey by what you have left behind here.

Peter2
Take a bow.

I'll be back in March to start Peter's Momentum Portfolio.

Looking forward to the encore.

 

[lindsayf]

Teriffic educational and enlightening example of the successful traders mindset.

 

[Newt]

Have read every word at least 3 times, and looking forward to the momentum trades with great interest.
The ASF community should be very grateful Peter for your time, energy and commitment - know I am!