ASX listed Winners and Losers from Carbon Tax and NBN

[robusta]

"It makes no sense to worry about things you have no control over because there's nothing you can do about them, and why worry about things you do control? The activity of worrying keeps you immobilized.
Dr Wayne Dyer"

I would like to forget about the politics of government policy and pick some potential winners and avoid the losers.

Looking at the carbon tax the most obvious winners should be in the renewable energy sector, however I am having trouble identifying potential businesses to invest in with good fundamentals.

 

[So_Cynical]

Looking at the carbon tax the most obvious winners should be in the renewable energy sector, however I am having trouble identifying potential businesses to invest in with good fundamentals.

None of them have good fundamentals due to the fact that for a decade carbon didn't have a price....most of the renewable stocks went into business in the belief that it would only take a few years ...that's why most of them went overseas chasing carbon dollars cos there was nothing happening here.

Anyway it all depends on what gets included in the carbon tax, and what misses out...will credits still owing from the NSW scheme be honoured?, will there be any Retrospectivity and how far back will that go etc etc.

 

[mattryanshares]

None of them have good fundamentals due to the fact that for a decade carbon didn't have a price....most of the renewable stocks went into business in the belief that it would only take a few years ...that's why most of them went overseas chasing carbon dollars cos there was nothing happening here.

Anyway it all depends on what gets included in the carbon tax, and what misses out...will credits still owing from the NSW scheme be honoured?, will there be any Retrospectivity and how far back will that go etc etc.

Not sure if it's ok to post actual stocks here

but maybe check out LYC. Part of there business is injecting CO2 into old oil wells to get the remaining oil out. this is copied fron another site??
Could be what your after or atleast head you in a direction you were unaware off???

Quote from nik

Back in 2008 this was stated by Linc..............

The Rudd Labor Government has made it very clear that it saw Australia becoming a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol as a priority. The details and the timeframe of a Carbon Trading Scheme have not yet been finalised. However, we see any introduction of a scheme as an opportunity for Linc Energy and not a threat.

To quote the then Deputy Premier and now Premier of Queensland, Hon Anna Bligh,

"Linc Energy's proposed 200 mw gas fired power stations using fuel from the UCG process would produce lower greenhouse gas emissions than conventional coal fired power stations."

The use of UCG Syngas for the production of cleaner power that will also deliver a substantial reduction in CO2 gases emitted from the process. If either a carbon tax or carbon trading scheme were introduced Linc would be well placed to capitalise on either of these initiatives.

In addition to the natural lower CO2 advantages of UCG to GTL, we have also established a Joint Venture with BioCleanCoal Pty Ltd and formed the company Linc Carbon Solutions. This project is moving forward rapidly at the R&D stage and we expect to establish that our process of CO2 conversion is commercially scalable and when we do, we will have clearly placed ourselves, as not only a clean coal technology company, but THE clean coal technology company.

As always do your own research!!

 

[robusta]

None of them have good fundamentals due to the fact that for a decade carbon didn't have a price....most of the renewable stocks went into business in the belief that it would only take a few years ...that's why most of them went overseas chasing carbon dollars cos there was nothing happening here.

Anyway it all depends on what gets included in the carbon tax, and what misses out...will credits still owing from the NSW scheme be honoured?, will there be any Retrospectivity and how far back will that go etc etc.

Have to agree with you, there is too much uncertainty in this area for me to make a informed decision.

Not sure if it's ok to post actual stocks here

but maybe check out LYC. Part of there business is injecting CO2 into old oil wells to get the remaining oil out. this is copied fron another site??
Could be what your after or atleast head you in a direction you were unaware off???

Quote from nik

Back in 2008 this was stated by Linc..............

The Rudd Labor Government has made it very clear that it saw Australia becoming a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol as a priority. The details and the timeframe of a Carbon Trading Scheme have not yet been finalised. However, we see any introduction of a scheme as an opportunity for Linc Energy and not a threat.

To quote the then Deputy Premier and now Premier of Queensland, Hon Anna Bligh,

"Linc Energy's proposed 200 mw gas fired power stations using fuel from the UCG process would produce lower greenhouse gas emissions than conventional coal fired power stations."

The use of UCG Syngas for the production of cleaner power that will also deliver a substantial reduction in CO2 gases emitted from the process. If either a carbon tax or carbon trading scheme were introduced Linc would be well placed to capitalise on either of these initiatives.

In addition to the natural lower CO2 advantages of UCG to GTL, we have also established a Joint Venture with BioCleanCoal Pty Ltd and formed the company Linc Carbon Solutions. This project is moving forward rapidly at the R&D stage and we expect to establish that our process of CO2 conversion is commercially scalable and when we do, we will have clearly placed ourselves, as not only a clean coal technology company, but THE clean coal technology company.

As always do your own research!!

Linc Energy does seem like a candidate but IMO it is very speculative.

 

[Smurf1976]

Domestic (as distinct from export LNG) natural gas producers are the obvious big winners.

With a carbon tax, the operation of existing gas-fired power stations will change from peak load to base load, thus dramatically increasing gas consumption.

Australian domestic gas prices are relatively cheap at present by international standards. The growth in consumption combined with increasing "locking up" of known reserves for LNG export should increase the gas price, most likely to the point where it equals the coal + carbon tax price (above which point gas use would sharply decline almost immediately).

All that would seem to be good news for domestic gas producers and those who own gas-fired power stations.

The rising price of electricity should also encourage greater use of natural gas for heating, cooking and to a lesser extent hot water (since much of the latter will likely go solar). Whilst gas prices will also increase, they will rise less than electricity (including gas-fired electricity). So that's good news for gas distribution and retail companies.

LPG won't likely gain much volume of sales on account of price differential, but it will pick up some of the hot water load in areas without mains gas as electric systems are banned in most states from 2012 onwards.

Now, Origin Energy produces natural gas, owns gas-fired power stations, retails natural gas and also sells LPG too. Seems like a pretty obvious winner from all of this to me, and it's not exactly a speculative stock either so good if you're looking for something a bit more conservative.

 

[jbocker]

I would agree many of the alternative energy companies should be winners particularly if they get some incentives from the carbon tax.
Most have a long way to go to becoming profitable businesses, I would be much more happier that they recieved encouragement, without the tax being a means to fund their development. Opposition stated today it will scrap the tax if elected, and therefore potentially remove the (carbon tax) as funding to develop an answer to the carbon issue. This makes the tax being a means to fund development to be an unstable one.

I figured a while back that 'carbon' in its ugly forms was at everyones attention (like it or not) and alternative energy is going to be BIG business of the future, and invested a few bucks in a few innovative Aussie companies while they were cheap. Long term punts. Just hope I live long enough to see some of them become those big businesses

 

[Julia]

Domestic (as distinct from export LNG) natural gas producers are the obvious big winners.

With a carbon tax, the operation of existing gas-fired power stations will change from peak load to base load, thus dramatically increasing gas consumption.

Australian domestic gas prices are relatively cheap at present by international standards. The growth in consumption combined with increasing "locking up" of known reserves for LNG export should increase the gas price, most likely to the point where it equals the coal + carbon tax price (above which point gas use would sharply decline almost immediately).

All very well, Smurf. But not all of us have access to gas. What are we supposed to do?

 

[Tisme]

I see another installer subcontractor has gone bust putting 100 installers out on the street. The pyramid payment system is the same type that saw school hall monies diluted to about 40- 60% after "management" companies took their handling fees.

NBN have been hammered about this white collar theft for years, but for some inexplicable reason (e.g. political donations and cronyism) the practice continues.

This is why we are seeing high quality installs like this = not enough money: