Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ASM - Australian Strategic Materials

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mullokintyre said:
And most likely to be understated.
Expect it to be closer to 2 bill once the project capex is completed.
Think I might move out of ASM, been a great ride, but its time to move on.
Mick
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I didn't realise how big this project was. That sort of Capex is normally for a giant copper porphyry in the Andes.
 
mullokintyre said:
Think I might move out of ASM, been a great ride, but its time to move on.
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I hope you were out on open?

Wild ride today !
Very odd late trade....

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Stockhead on ASM

stockhead.com.au

Ground Breakers: Booming rare earths stock suffers selldown as costs bite - Stockhead

Rare earths market hopeful Australian Strategic Materials says its Dubbo project has improved but investors got jitters on higher capex.
stockhead.com.au stockhead.com.au

ASM released an ‘optimisation study’ building on a scoping study released for its Dubbo project in New South Wales. According to their new figures, the project will cost $1.678 billion to build, up from the $1.297bn capex estimate provided in its 2018 release.

The company says the additions include an estimate for the pricing of its dehafinated zirconia solvent extraction plant (an $87m increase), as well as $65m for a chlor-alkali plant, $30m for a brine concentrator upgrade and a $163m ‘owner’s contingency’.

ASM said the changes will bring annual operating costs down from $317m to $287m and improve its ESG performance.

It also increased the gross revenue estimate from $12.75bn to $15.8bn over the 20 year life of the Dubbo mine, with free cash flow rising from $4.7b to $7.4b, its pre-tax IRR increasing from 17.5% to 23.5% (20.1% post-tax) and pre-tax NPV from $1.24b to $2.36b.

Investors still had the jitters.

“I am delighted with the outcomes of the optimisation work which demonstrates the financial strength of the Dubbo Project and ASM’s focus on a sustainable future delivering improved performance and ESG outcomes,” ASM managing director David Woodall said.
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“The optimisation work supports a strong go forward case and is an exciting development for ASM, our partners and shareholders.” “The Optimisation Work confirms we have a project that can integrate into our metals business to create an alternate, sustainable, secure and stable long-term supply of critical metals and oxides.”
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“This places ASM in an exceptional position in the critical metals value chain, as the vertically integrated owner of a globally significant polymetallic resource in Dubbo, and the capability to produce critical metals from this resource to the highest environmental standards.”
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mullokintyre said:
Looks like you were a month too early PZ.
Up 17% today.
Mick
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Not wrong... something to do with Uncle Sam and his robot from what I hear...

"President Joe Biden plans Thursday to invoke Cold War powers to encourage domestic production of critical minerals for electric-vehicle and other types of batteries, according to people familiar with the matter."

 
ASm has gone mainstream.
from ABC NEWS
The Dubbo Project in New South Wales' central west has been on a 20-year mission to dig up critical minerals and it's finally inching closer to being able to mine them.

Key points:​

  • The Dubbo Project is now looking to finance its construction stage
  • It received all necessary state and government approvals six years ago
  • Critics says the federal government has been too slow to recognise the strategic importance of critical minerals

The Dubbo Project is looking to mine a number of rare earth metals and critical minerals like zirconium, hafnium, titanium and neodymium, the products of which can be used in a number of industries, including clean energy, aerospace and some military technologies.

Gill Savage, senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, says this makes the sector relevant to Australia's sovereignty.

"We know that from a defence perspective, high-tech air power is dependent on critical minerals and rare earth elements," Ms Savage said.

"So if we're going to stand as a leader geopolitically, we need to support ourselves in key areas."
But, she says, Australia has been too slow on the uptake, and needs to move towards prioritising its own national interests, especially since the pandemic has exposed a number of supply chain issues.
The owner of the Dubbo Project, Australian Strategic Materials (ASM), says once mining starts — probably in 2025-26 — its mined material is slated to go overseas to the South Korean market.

ASM general manager David Woodall says Korea is an automotive manufacturing powerhouse that is moving towards electric vehicles, while the demand for critical minerals in Australia is still relatively small.

Ms Savage says it is this lack of local demand that needs to be rectified by the federal government in the national interest.
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This is even better than having the local cabbie spruik your shares.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
ASm has gone mainstream.
from ABC NEWS

This is even better than having the local cabbie spruik your shares.
Mick
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Speaking as one who missed out on buying ASM at 59c and who is still out and kicking myself, the long term chart since it went solo is interesting, up to $14 twice and now falling since.

I enclose a weekly, but on the daily recently there has been considerable pumping on large volume and then dumping on even more volume over the subsequent three or four days. This has occurred with some regularity as it lost nearly half it's value.

I think I'll leave it atm. Perhaps Elon is making a play, but I'm not in Elon's league.

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gg
 
ASM has been in decline from highs around $14.00 in November last year. Broke below support at $7.00 last week after consolidation between 7 and 9 for 3 months. Touched $6.00 a couple of days ago to find support above $6.25.

My pick for May comp, as a long shot, that it will confirm support at 6.25 with a target $7.25 by the end of the month. There doesn’t seem to be any other confirmations of this other than Wednesday’s candle and Thursday could have been a swing. An up day yesterday would have helped but it wasn’t to be, however it still looks more positive on a 15min chart.

The downside could be $5.50 after consolidation between $6.25/6.50, but the monthly comp doesn’t allow for getting out early.

Catch a falling knife with no real indication of reversal.
 
This stock has been annoying the crap out of me so I'll post this up hoping it'll bounce back to $10 by the end of the day :)

 
With China having an 80% grip across the RE market, there's a very real fear they'll manipulate supply. That said, the ASM approach in with Koreans should remove some of that risk.
 
Crikey, quite the fall from grace here. What's going on? Did it just overshoot up to $14?

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Sean K said:
Crikey, quite the fall from grace here. What's going on? Did it just overshoot up to $14?
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If it was just overshoot that took it to $14, then I'll settle for $9 by the end of the month. Hope it is really good news for the trading halt.
 
Sean K said:
Not sure if this sounds like a good thing, or not.
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I guess I would be speculating that yesterday's announcement "ASM’s first high purity critical metals plant officially opens in South Korea" being a milestone for the announcements on 24 January 2022, being completion of due diligence and 21 July 2021, the completion of the initial framework agreement with the South Korean consortium to take a 25% (US250m) equity interest in the Dubbo Project holding company.
As you say, good or not is yet to be determined.
 
Sounds like a good thing... Up 20%

USD 15 million Subscription Agreement at AUD 8.90 per ASM share

Key points
• Additional equity of USD 15 million raised at a share price of AUD 8.90
• July 2021 Framework Agreement revised
• Negotiations are ongoing for a five-year offtake agreement for 2,800 dry metric tonnes of NdFeB alloy from the Korean Metals Plant (KMP)
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