Could you explain it with 10 boxes ? You pick one, and then the judge reveals 8 of the others are empty. Will the odds change ?If you think the answer is that it doenst improve my chance of freedom by choosing the remaining box, then i struggle to see the point of the puzzle.
Initially there is a 2/3 chance of being wrong.
After the judge reveals one of the chosen boxes to be empty one is faced with a better chance of being right by changing over to the remaining box.
Could you explain it with 10 boxes ? You pick one, and then the judge reveals 8 of the others are empty. Will the odds change ?
I dont get your logic, i agree initially there is a 33% chance of your pick being right, but once the judge reveals the empty box there is now a 50% chance you have the right box, changing to the remaining one will mean you still have a 50% chance of being correct.
No. If your first choice is wrong (2/3 likely) it will dictate the choice by the judge having to reveal the only remaining empty box indicating that there is a 2/3 chance that the unchosen box contains the pardon.
When the last two marbles are selected a coloured marble will be returned according to the rules. It will be the last remaining marble and it's colour will be known.
Edit: If all marbles are red at outset then last marble will be red, otherwise last marble will be blue.
I think you misunderstand what i said - and I cant understand what you are saying now!
The judge knows the contents of all the boxes.
He knows the box he opens doesnt contain the pardon. Given that we already knew that he knows the contents of all the boxes that implies that the other unopened box contains the pardon in this case.
It doesnt mean i cant pick the box with the pardon, just that i didnt this time.
If you think the answer is that it doenst improve my chance of freedom by choosing the remaining box, then i struggle to see the point of the puzzle. Obviously if the judges actions provide no new information then its 50/50 which box the pardon is in.
(maybe this one is just a really basic and simple puzzle and i am overthinking it??!!)
#7 make a snowball containing the $$ & throw it back over ?
#10. He's not wearing bowling shoes.... everyone else is.
#8 the alarm clock in the bookshelf
#11 elephant has a bandage on its trunk!
#9 There's no outlet for the waste products after the hunny is sucked from the flowers ?
And a fun fact from wiki
Answer to # 12 : Use the wrench to remove car tyre tubes and tie them to the bag of coins with the rope.
Huh? As i said, my first choice has a 33% chance of being correct, once the judge reveals one of the remaining two boxes to be empty, there is a 50% chance of either of the two remaining boxes containing the pardon.
Changing the box I have selected at this point will not change the odds from 50%.
Its more complex than that, see my answer on the previous page. Reread the question too, he is asking if you can tell upon being told what number of balls are present - eg if their are 87 red balls and 46 blue, can you tell what the remaining ball will be? (it will be red)
If there is an uneven number of blue balls present then the result will end in a blue ball, otherwise it will be red.
Okay I see your point.
If there is an uneven number of blue balls present then the result will end in a blue ball, otherwise it will be red.
And the reasoning is...
There are 3 possible outcomes of a 'turn'
red,red -2R +1R nett result is one less red, but same number of blues
blue,blue -2B +1R nett result is one more red, but 2 fewer blues
red,blue -1R -1B +1B nett result is one less red, but same number of blues
So count of blues can only ever go down by 2 or 0, but reds can go up or down by exactly 1
Therefore blues that start with an odd number must end with an odd number (ie 1)
Y
As someone pointed out, think if there were 100 boxes with only 1 pardon. You pick one and the judge opens 98 of the remaining 99, all of which he knows are empty. To assume your probability of not switching jumps from 1/100 to 1/2 is absurd. The other unopened box now carries the probability that the combined 99 previously carried, namely 99/100, so switching is the thing to do.
Your whole explanation makes no sense to me! Not saying its wrong, just that I still dont get it!!
If i have picked 1 box out of 100 i have a 1% chance of being correct, if the judge opens 98 of the 99 left and proves they all have nothing in them, we now have 2 boxes, 1 with the pardon, 1 without. Its patently obvious that which ever box you choose has a 50% chance of containing the pardon, so switching cant change your odds.
Your reasoning makes not the slightest sense to my dumb head!!
OK, read the wiki and all i can say is i am happy to be wrong along with so many geniuses and mathematicians! Still dont believe it though.
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