skc
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Agree with you particularly about BSL. Sure there's short covering to be had but I am still scratching my head on the very different market response to ARI and BSL's results.
Agree with you particularly about BSL. Sure there's short covering to be had but I am still scratching my head on the very different market response to ARI and BSL's results.
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Average loaded cost of Ore is ~AU$42/t
You certainly raise a good point about other companies ramping up their Iron Ore exports, as it seems ARI's profitability is heavily dependant on the Iron ore price.
The mining consumables business operates mostly off shore, the main operations are in the Americas and Asia.
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Is the stock going to break out of the ascending triangle in a positive way
?
?
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skc
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GFC style renounceable rights issue @ 48c.
The rights are tradable under ARIR ,currently with bids at 1c.
The headstock are trading at 42.5c.
WTF? I have never seen this happen before.
Can I shout these rights and buy the head and pocket 7c spread?
The rights are tradable under ARIR ,currently with bids at 1c.
The headstock are trading at 42.5c.
WTF? I have never seen this happen before.
Can I shout these rights and buy the head and pocket 7c spread?
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People are very optimistic!
You'll probably get only 1c as I'm sure people won't be kind enough to exercise them to give you the 6c.
CDU had a similar thing back in Nov13, Was trading $1.7~$2, did a 1:6 raising @ $2.50 (but with a free oppie)
Too bad there's never any borrow on rights...
skc
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I suppose there's a scenario where the head say goes bellyup before the end of rights trading.
Loss on rights long = -1c. Gain on head short = 40c.
But I'd put that in the highly doubtful basket... at least for the next 3 weeks.
Craton
Mostly passive, contrarian.
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ARI (nee OST) and BSL. Wow, these two spin offs from the Big Australian have had a roller coaster ride to say the least. Makes sense to me now why BHP wants to spin off "Newco" as well.
Back to ARI. With the SP currently at $0.38 and the renon-rights ARIR at $0.002, where is the value in buying the entitlement at $0.48? I just don't get it. Or perhaps I do.
ARI SP was around the $0.76 mark before the 1 for 1 announcement, so it sort of makes sense. If the SP was priced at 76c so to account for the 1 for 1 dilution then it stands to reason that 1/2 of 76 = 38. So in fact the 48c renon-rights are being offered to the mug punter, um, retail investor at a premium.
A quick look see through the offer booklet I didn't note any share numbers pre/post entitlement so I may be quite off the mark in my assumptions but dilution is a given. Still, as a long term holder is the offer worth the punt, um, take up?
About the only things going for it from my perspective are buying in at a low in the cycle and lowering the avg cost. So what to do?
>>>> walks off scratching head thinking of the future.
Back to ARI. With the SP currently at $0.38 and the renon-rights ARIR at $0.002, where is the value in buying the entitlement at $0.48? I just don't get it. Or perhaps I do.
ARI SP was around the $0.76 mark before the 1 for 1 announcement, so it sort of makes sense. If the SP was priced at 76c so to account for the 1 for 1 dilution then it stands to reason that 1/2 of 76 = 38. So in fact the 48c renon-rights are being offered to the mug punter, um, retail investor at a premium.
A quick look see through the offer booklet I didn't note any share numbers pre/post entitlement so I may be quite off the mark in my assumptions but dilution is a given. Still, as a long term holder is the offer worth the punt, um, take up?
About the only things going for it from my perspective are buying in at a low in the cycle and lowering the avg cost. So what to do?
>>>> walks off scratching head thinking of the future.
skc
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What you are interested here is the calculation of TERP (theoretical ex-rights price). Because ARI is getting new cash to pay off debt, so while the number of shares increased by 2 fold, the share price doesn't just half.
Here's a link on how that's done.
http://accounting-simplified.com/ifrs/ias-33-eps/basic/theoretical-ex-rights-price.html
Of course not! If you want to increase your stake in the business, you buy on market at 38c. You don't take up the rights @ 48c. Only charitable idiots would do that.
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Cheers skc. Appreciated.
TERP link is handy. I should be able to work it out from there.
You're last paragraph puts it so much more eloquently than I ever could.
Craton
As I saw SKC saved you at least 10 cents per share so he deserves at least 5 cents per share of your holding
.Plus more as ARI shares slide down on Monday and Tuesday and then like all iron ore shares with prices going down
Craton
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Heh heh, good one Miner. I may be an idiot but am not a charitable one. : As pixel said, rotten timing on the part of ARI.
Still, pun intended, I ponder on the future of iron and commodities in general and how China plays into the equation as there are serious concerns there. My head scratching is over the quandary: Is it worth blowing powder now or is there more pain to come?
With the S&P500 and co. adjusting for the QE wind back I reckon I don't need a chart to tell me there's more pain to come. Any TERP valuation would seem to mean little in this pull back/bearish climate. No doubt though at some point a bottom must eventuate and hence the enticement to my contrarian ways.
: As pixel said, rotten timing on the part of ARI.Still, pun intended, I ponder on the future of iron and commodities in general and how China plays into the equation as there are serious concerns there. My head scratching is over the quandary: Is it worth blowing powder now or is there more pain to come?
With the S&P500 and co. adjusting for the QE wind back I reckon I don't need a chart to tell me there's more pain to come. Any TERP valuation would seem to mean little in this pull back/bearish climate. No doubt though at some point a bottom must eventuate and hence the enticement to my contrarian ways.
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Hey SkyQuake
Similar example is on ANG They floated and closed a much higher price of the rights only to be collapsed at less than half rights price . I was lucky to be rejected to get my rights just because I did not hold the shares as ex rights basis even after the closing of rights offer. I literally saved more than $1 potentially by depriving the rights. Felt good . Surely those ARI holders who did not exercise the rights and waited till end feeling very good.
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More of a drop incoming? Oil predicted to keep dropping? Not looking good for now, although I read the offer will definitely succeed as it is backed by a bank?? bit of a novice... not sure
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Has ARI hit rock bottom yet?
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Ha Ha - that is a joke for the month mate.
Has iron ore reached the bottom - No.
So ARI has more fathoms
() to go down. Just wait for AGO. Look at FMG - how it is sinking. Compared to IMO Arrium is doing much better. The quality of their ore is far superior than many others and they have consumption base.
All the best.
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Anyone have any comments on ARI?
Results out today.
I only ask because I contributed $1mil to their earnings last month with a purchase of one of their properties for my business.
If the way they handled themselves before and during and subsequently after the transaction, I have no doubts on their (cough cough) performance this year.
pinkboy
Results out today.
I only ask because I contributed $1mil to their earnings last month with a purchase of one of their properties for my business.
If the way they handled themselves before and during and subsequently after the transaction, I have no doubts on their (cough cough) performance this year.
pinkboy
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Looks like they may go under.
Interesting comment you made pinkboy back in February.
Interesting comment you made pinkboy back in February.
