ARH - Australasian Resources

[Mr Right]

Spark like it has today?, its a whole 100 percent below the SP I dumped it months ago at, this ones a full donkey MB.

The whole setup with Palmer and ARH's ramped announcements is fully dodgy, I've always wondered what happened with their Shelock Bay Nickle venture, they dropped that like a hot potato after ramping it for ages.

It is very simple mate if you are making a revenue of close to a billion a year out of something (ARH is looking into upgrading the plant to 14 MTpa) and you making barely 60 million revenue per year of the nickel project where you are going to put your resources into. I bought it at 0.08 cents and drop it at 22 cents cause of the dilution. I bought quite a large amount at 0.10 again this is a big project that is almost guaranteed to go ahead cause of Citic. I dont know if you do know but Citic applied to mine doubled of what they are allowed but it was refused by the gevernment and that is why they are getting ARH to get what they want. Remember Citic is owned 80% by the Chinese government.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

I have read pretty much all of ARH and Sherlock Bay's announcements of the past year.

I am only interested in trading ARH (or their old calling card SHN). ATM they have no proven support T/A wise and their are a lot of mug punters stuck in from months back (on high volumes). They are hence not tradeable ATM, in my opinion.

Fundamentaly I am not interested in any Manganite producers who's venture is 4 years off producing, requires a pellet plant and total mining infrastructure. In four years time it may not be viable to mine manganite (its as abundant as the Sahara and the poor mans ore), ore prices may be down, China's economy may overheat. 4 years is to far ahead for me and I'm not Nostradamus.

ARH have never come good on any of their projects & the Palmer connection is quite a weird anomoly in a listed Company. He will own 80 odd percent of ARH, pretty much a Monopoly really.

Anyway I hope they come good for you and make you a bucketload.

 

[Mr Right]

I have read pretty much all of ARH and Sherlock Bay's announcements of the past year.

I am only interested in trading ARH (or their old calling card SHN). ATM they have no proven support T/A wise and their are a lot of mug punters stuck in from months back (on high volumes). They are hence not tradeable ATM, in my opinion.

Fundamentaly I am not interested in any Manganite producers who's venture is 4 years off producing, requires a pellet plant and total mining infrastructure. In four years time it may not be viable to mine manganite (its as abundant as the Sahara and the poor mans ore), ore prices may be down, China's economy may overheat. 4 years is to far ahead for me and I'm not Nostradamus.

ARH have never come good on any of their projects & the Palmer connection is quite a weird anomoly in a listed Company. He will own 80 odd percent of ARH, pretty much a Monopoly really.

Anyway I hope they come good for you and make you a bucketload.

Thanks i am certain i will. By the way the only way to get iron in the world is magnetite, hematite deposits are almost in the past. I think the chinese government has made their calc to invest 3.1 billion US into this project (Citic).

 

[MalteseBull]

ok i am convinced this share is a dud

is it worth waiting for the December meeting or what?

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Nope. You should have made your money and left this one MB, months back

 

[MalteseBull]

Nope. You should have made your money and left this one MB, months back

no joke but this Iron ore thing they got going is going to be bigger than fortescue if it goes to plan,

close to the ocean and strategically good

only thing is that palmer has 70%

 

[kgee]

Yeah there's so much negative sentiment towards this stock and with valid reasons.
..but when you see all these other iron ore companies with less than a quarter the reserves....I don't know if i was the chinese and were looking 50 years down the track surely ARH shows some promise
My thoughts are they will scratch the process plant and deliver the ore unrefined- they get online quicker with less start up cost

Good luck in the stock tipping comp Maltese I was thinking ARH myself
Oh yeah thanks freeballin hindsight is a wonderful thing

 

[kenworth69]

It is very difficult to objectively discuss the merits of this stock on hotcopper at the moment.

I am having extreme difficulty believing that a company with a couple of million in the bank are going to pull off a $3 billion dollar deal. MCC might come up with $2.1 billion in a loan package but where will the $900 million equity come from?

I can only think of further share issues , resulting in massive further dilution if they were to retain 100% ownership of this project.

Rather , i think Palmer is trying to accelerate the development of this block for ultimate sale to the Chinese. He then gets a nice chunk for his ARH shares, further chunks for each billion tonnes aka the CITIC deal and the royalties.

Palmer appears to be a deal making landlord not a miner.

You will note that in both deals i think he has put a limit on how many tonnes each company can mine per year.

It may therefore be attractive to CITIC and its proposed partner to gain access to ARH'S ORE.

 

[Mr Right]

It is very difficult to objectively discuss the merits of this stock on hotcopper at the moment.

I am having extreme difficulty believing that a company with a couple of million in the bank are going to pull off a $3 billion dollar deal. MCC might come up with $2.1 billion in a loan package but where will the $900 million equity come from?

I can only think of further share issues , resulting in massive further dilution if they were to retain 100% ownership of this project.

Rather , i think Palmer is trying to accelerate the development of this block for ultimate sale to the Chinese. He then gets a nice chunk for his ARH shares, further chunks for each billion tonnes aka the CITIC deal and the royalties.

Palmer appears to be a deal making landlord not a miner.

You will note that in both deals i think he has put a limit on how many tonnes each company can mine per year.

It may therefore be attractive to CITIC and its proposed partner to gain access to ARH'S ORE.

You are wrong i dont hold ARH at this stage but for those who do! ARH is bringing the cost of the project down by aprox 900 mill by deciding to go ahead with concentrate only not with HBI plant.

 

[kgee]

Mr Right I've heard that rumour as well and it does make a lot of sense without ruling out a plant coming online down the track
As for PP Looking at selling ARH doesn't make sense to me...I'm sure he got into this too become a producer ....what better way to add value to your land holdings?

 

[Mr Right]

Mr Right I've heard that rumour as well and it does make a lot of sense without ruling out a plant coming online down the track
As for PP Looking at selling ARH doesn't make sense to me...I'm sure he got into this too become a producer ....what better way to add value to your land holdings?

some people dont get that in the future there is no more hematite its only magnatite and it is very costly to make iron from megnatite so dont expect to see the iron ore price drop. Hematite is oxidised megnatite and to get a complete oxidation of megnatite takes millions of years!!! excuse my spelling i am really busy at work cant check my spelling

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

some people dont get that in the future there is no more hematite its only magnatite and it is very costly to make iron from megnatite so dont expect to see the iron ore price drop. Hematite is oxidised megnatite and to get a complete oxidation of megnatite takes millions of years!!! excuse my spelling i am really busy at work cant check my spelling

Mr Right,

Sure their isn't much Hematite around in Oz, especially for the small players like ARH . SDL has a decent deposit in SA though. Every man and his dog is flogging small up and coming wannabe manganite miners ATM, how much can the market absorb, at what effect on current ore prices, how many small players are actually going to come on line! etc etc. Many are tenious about the commodities boom (especially for managanite producers).


Back to ARH and the Palmer connection, Minerology. IM etc. After ARH has given away approximately 80 percent of themselves to Palmer, they have 75 million odd shares left after the 10:1 consolidation. If you then factor in the oppies to be exercised in less than 10 months time (forget about the other ones!) shares up for the public punter are further diluted.

I find the options to be issued next year, 15 million odd and considering ARH will only have 75 million on issue at the time absurd. At current SP prices of ARH these oppies are not only 125 percent discount but reduce ARH's holdings by the average punter to a close the 12 percent stake in ARH. An absolute mug deal considering ARH's assets, Palmers landlord holding on Balmoral, royalty catches/rights to mining and monopoly of ARH voting power.

IMHO you would have to be a wally to hold ARH on a fundamental basis and long term, as for trading them well they have no support levels even at their savaged SP of today.With a quarter of their 'post share consolidation' to be diluted by oppies next August at a hundred percent discount to today's levels, , wheres the upside for ARH fundamental holders.

 

[kenworth69]

Mr Right,


I hope your right but they have yet to make a formal announcement stating that they wont be proceeding with the HBI or pellet plant.

Where did you get that info from?

 

[Mr Right]

Mr Right,


I hope your right but they have yet to make a formal announcement stating that they wont be proceeding with the HBI or pellet plant.

Where did you get that info from?

I bought some shares yesterday. ARH are looking for people to start the bankable feasibility study from January. This is a long term share. The deal with the Chinese is in ARH favor not like with Palmer.

 

[kenworth69]

I note that CITIC have acquired a 5% stake in FMG. I wonder how long it will take before they acquire a reasonable holding in ARH? It would seem to be a logical move as they will be sharing infrastructure etc.

 

[kenworth69]

I think ARH's technical team are either back or due back from China shortly. Hopdefully there will be an announcement shortly confirming that they wont be proceeding with the construction of the plants, as stated above by yourself.

I think this company overall is a little more advanced than some of the other magnetite hopefuls.

MCC are 100% owned by the CG and i think CITIC are around 39% owned by the CG.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

ARH ..... looking for some positive news, this week ...

..... and the ARH chart, says it all:

ARH alert ..... astrostuff ..... updated chart ...

happy days

yogi



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[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Nice chart Yogi! A nice way to explaining ARH falling through all proven supports over the past 6 months .

 

[Ko Ko]

How does this chart explain anything? I am kinda spooked. Since the massive share price drop im speculating on this stock. Anyone buying in soon?

Please shed some light.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

How does this chart explain anything? I am kinda spooked. Since the massive share price drop im speculating on this stock. Anyone buying in soon?

Please shed some light.

ARH has fallen through several key supports over recent month's and is no longer in an uptrend. IMHO entering this stock now is nothing short of speculation and you are entering a share that is in a clear downtrend.

However Yogi's chart draws a pretty picture and pattern that is akin to speculation. Enough speculative punters entering ARH may indeed bring fruits to Yogi's pattern and ARH may uptrend again, if the punters don't materialize his pretty lines are history .

IMO and if I was you I'd leave ARH behind until it resumes a clear uptrend