Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Argh beginner making a mistake! Need advice plz? :)

No reason to sell a strongly up-trending stock like this. Hold. Top of channel is about $12.20. I'd consider selling then if I was trading it. Stop loss could be placed just under $11.40. If you wreck the trade, big deal. You've picked a good stock to begin with - an up trending big cap.

If long term holder, then hold.

Sirpollicles

As lots of people have told you, you need a good trading plan. But you have to have a backtested plan to become successful and very good money mangement strategies if you don't want to go broke. Protecting your capital is paramount to ongoing success regardless if you are just learning or a pro. Even Warren Buffett who is a value investor, has rules in this regard. His Number 1 Rule is not to lose money and Number 2 is to see Rule Number 1.

Had the market had a bad lead today for some global reason or ILU announced something negative, etc, you would have had a significantly reduced chance that you got today to get out higher. Big numbers like $12 are key resistance and support (not sloping trend lines that many others can't see or fundamentalists don't want to look for) and are likely to hold as people get ideas that this is where they want out as they have made good profits over time and the big round number sounds good to them. If you have a look at the order lines in the market depth on a share, you will see this all the time with larger than usual numbers of sellers or buyers with orders at these big numbers (at the 50 cent marks too).

As we don't know your timeframes, if you are a trading a share for short-term gains, NEVER have it in your head, even for a second, that if something goes wrong you will become an investor. Investors have long timeframes, share traders usually don't, except when they get caught without a plan and the share drops in price and they take no corrective action. A poor trader will then decide they are a longterm investor.

Every share you are holding longterm means less trading capital and a share that is possibly going down further in price every day. We have all done it at some point, but anyone who is a serious trader will not consider it as one of their finest moments and believe me, they hang round your neck like the proverbial Albatross to remind you of your stupidity. It is considered extremely poor money management and does not protect your capital.

If you are a longterm investor, you should still learn about where you have a better chance of entering to give yourself a better chance of the share going up. The best longterm investors all have good money management rules and will have stop loss rules, even if they are just set as a percentage of capital loss level.

If you intend to be a trader, the game is just about probability. Probability means that sometimes you will be dead wrong. The only way to manage the outcome, right or wrong, is to plan the trade and then trade the plan precisely without alterations. You should still have a good plan in place if you are a longterm investor. And it will sound a bit weird, but to be a successful trader, you have to like losing money, as it is a just part of your trading plan and win/loss ratio. Successful investors will tell you the same.

Hoping that because a share has been going up for sometime will save you from a bad entry and a share that is about to tank and go down for some time is at best wishful thinking and at worst a very bad plan if you intended to successfully make money.

Cheers
 
i held it! stock deided to jump up of a monrning in the opening jsut like it does the last 2 weeks, i know you cant predict and just guess that it will have high demand in the morning orders, but sure enough. sold them at 12.25. Thanks for the help guys, i will really take in more consideration with holding my capital. I knew it already, and it went below my sell point and i just kept thinking to myself "what if it goes up" im guessing that is what most peoples brains tell them, even if your knowledge tells otherwise. I'm jsut lucky in this case. Luck runs out. Do what your instincts tell you and protect capital is the better way.

Thanks for all your help guys! slowly learning.....
 
i held it! stock deided to jump up of a monrning in the opening jsut like it does the last 2 weeks, i know you cant predict and just guess that it will have high demand in the morning orders, but sure enough. sold them at 12.25. Thanks for the help guys, i will really take in more consideration with holding my capital.

I'm out today as well, also at the open $12.25

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6067&p=621825&viewfull=1#post621825
 
I'm just lucky in this case. Luck runs out.

You can bet your last trading dollar on that statement...

Do what your instincts tell you and protect capital is the better way.

...and NO!!! Do what your plan tells you.

There are 2 types of traders that use their instincts; those that have gone broke and those in the process of doing so. Instincts are for birds.
 
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