Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Are you doing better than Marcus Padley over the last 6 months?

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I've been following Padley since his original newsletter. Not always as a subscriber, but sometimes. I enjoyed hearing his frank views on the status of the Australian market.

Unfortunately, he has moved far away from his original newsletters.

Padley (or more correctly, his newsletter business) lost me when, in the newsletter, he started making portfolio decisions as a fund manager, instead of as a stock market newsletter writer. Sad days.

KH
 
Onan said:
Thats right Padley has lost money in a crazy bull market. That makes this video kinda funny
Click to expand...

well September 2019 ( Repo Madness ) was a big signal for me , and started sensibly taking cash off the table ready for what came in March 2020 , but taking a punt on KGN in January 2020 ( @ $5.64 ) in case we followed the Chinese lockdown strategy

sure i didn't pick the month or amount of fall , but spotting something was seriously wrong with the money market ( and bulking up cash )

well that isn't rocket science
 
Again we are talking apples and oranges here when we make pure comparisons.

But if we take a majority small cap portfolio such as Speculative Stock Portfolio on this Stock Forum, we are outperforming with stock picks for 2021 timeframe only, taking into account all closed and current open positions:

1628298259358.png

Results improve drastically if we go a few days back to end of December last year to include a current open portfolio position in Lithium Australia NL (LIT) that is doing really well:

1628298396060.png

Haven't included dividends here as this was done as a quick performance calculation table. If we did, that would add a small % to the above results.
 
the only share on your list i look at from time to time is SHJ ( but then i remember the scorching i got in SGH , sigh , and move on )

good work and good luck

( i guess we aren't going to compete over the same parcel of shares very often )
 
divs4ever said:
the only share on your list i look at from time to time is SHJ ( but then i remember the scorching i got in SGH , sigh , and move on )

good work and good luck

( i guess we aren't going to compete over the same parcel of shares very often )
Click to expand...
Good on you @divs4ever I expect Shine Justice Ltd (SHJ) to be doing well over the medium to long term and continue to reward shareholders with dividends. SHJ offers a good yield in the current interest rate environment and as we discussed in the spec portfolio, they are doing it in a sustainable way from current profits and not from borrowings. Also great to see they've been increasing dividends of late:

1628299710133.png

Slow and steady, almost a boring business. Just the way we like them.

If we see this law firm doing exciting things like becoming greedy and take on a huge pile of debt to take over a massive UK law firm as Slater & Gordon Limited (SGH) did, that'll be our signal to get out.
 
boring i can live with ( especially if they can spit out a regular div. )

but was much too slow to react with SGH

i should have known better than to buy in , in the first place ( opportunists like that are always liable to be hooked by the gills )

oh well a strong reminder to be cautious

i did a quick U-turn with ART and their new acquisition , a better and profitable result that time
 
i run 4 separate portfolios - since Jan 1 including divs:

ASX buy & hold: 6.4% (dragged down by CSL which is my largest individual holding, but it's done so much heavy lifting over the last few years, so if it wants to take a bit of a breather this year i'm cool with that)

ASX options/short term trading: 17.8% (biggest contributor was a CBA position resulting from a Jan short put assignment to strip the Feb div, ended up holding onto it as i couldn't find anything better to do with the collateral once the 45 days were up, got lucky when it duly rallied and rode it up to $100 before it got called away a few weeks ago)

International ETFs: 19.6% (no currency hedging, so helped out a bit by AUD/USD depreciating this year)

SGX: 10.9% constant currency, 13.2% in AUD terms as AUD/SGD has also depreciated this year (though on a like for like basis it would be somewhat higher than that, since as a Singapore tax resident i don't pay tax on SGX capital gains or divs)
 
Last 6 months was a blood bath with my systems.helped a little bit by usd exposure and some investments portfolio resilts but overall negative. I do not do calendar year checks but went from healthy returns in January to 0 in july
so probably -10% or so of total funds..not all invested..for the first half
 
So_Cynical said:
Me too, will never touch a legal stock again...was criminal what those clowns did.
Click to expand...
All those legal stocks are complete dogs—IPH, QIP and several others. All IPO to great fanfare only to sink south pretty quickly and fail to deliver on expectations. Often think law firms should stay away from listing and simply stay as private partnerships
 
Dona Ferentes said:
12.71% incl. dividends (from 01 Jan)
32.92% for 12 mths
Click to expand...
Those numbers are from my SMSF. A Barbell - local 65% and International 18%, of LICs plus speccies. 12% in ILBs, 4% Private equity


Sharkman said:
i run 4 separate portfolios - since Jan 1 including divs:

ASX buy & hold: 6.4% (dragged down by CSL which is my largest individual holding, but it's done so much heavy lifting over the last few years, so if it wants to take a bit of a breather this year i'm cool with that)
Click to expand...
And in my own name, ASX Bought and Held. since 01 Jan; 15.1%, full 12 mths ; 28.8%. (ditto on CSL)

- contains 8 stocks though has had others now sold; probably paid $100K, market value now well into 7 figures, dividends of $35K + franking. - Mainly bought decades ago; BHP '85, CBA both tranches of float '91 & '93, ANZ '92, WES '93, AFI '92, MND 2003 , CSL 2005 + COL spun out. Am free carried on most as I have been in and out , mainly on rights issues/SPPs. And most are multiple baggers - it is nice to receive dividends pushing 25-50% of invested capital each year.
 
qldfrog said:
I do not do calendar year checks but went from healthy returns in January to 0 in july
Click to expand...

i don't keep my YTD etc. figures handy either, i just update the raw $ figures in my spreadsheet after the last trading day of the month (except the options/short term portfolio, which i update every day due to its nature) and backup/archive my financial spreadsheet to serve as a "restore point" (disk space is cheap these days after all) in case i go and rejig some worksheets/formulas later and mess it up.

but on seeing this thread, thought it would be an interesting exercise to dig out the archive from dec 2020, do the necessary calcs and see how the different portfolios were doing. i knew my ASX buy & hold section would underperform this year because of the heavy CSL weighting, but didn't realise just how far below the index it was until actually doing the calcs.
 
MovingAverage said:
All those legal stocks are complete dogs—IPH, QIP and several others. All IPO to great fanfare only to sink south pretty quickly and fail to deliver on expectations. Often think law firms should stay away from listing and simply stay as private partnerships
Click to expand...
i am WATCHING ( not buying ) QIP currently the share price is above my target ( ditto for SHJ )

previously i held XIP ( taken over by IPH ) and yes i made a profit on that in the past i held IMG ( and their hybrid note ) ( IMF has since 'rebranded ' ) and left with modest profits there

i also held SGH where the outcome was nothing close to break-even ( in a bad way )

these companies involve themselves in legal cases , and sometimes these cases go for years ( decades ) so you must take forecasts with a bag of salt .

now sure the IP looks like a commercial tax ( or insurance policy ) ,regular yearly income from the client but it is those few litigations that can be a gorilla with a wrench ( tying up time and resources )

DYOR ( very carefully in this area )

now if we are talking about fund managers/analysts and their support for different investment areas , maybe a deep dive into the research is still necessary , before you part with your cash

i would suggest IF you buy into this sector you watch it closely AND be ready to jump if necessary ( SGH for one proved they had no ability to do due diligence , nor auditing capability )
 
div. returns this year could easily be as stressed as they were last year

now a question must be asked , given the current lock-down addiction , will some companies withhold ( or trim ) divs ( like they did in 2020 ) to boost emergency reserves ( or bulk up for opportunistic acquisitions )

if one of those relying on div. income that is a very important consideration

take care ( when chasing div. returns )
 

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