greggles
I'll be back!
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Was that available on the website? After looking in more detail I found this:
I've just read through the post. I skimmed some, but tried to read every one of the OP's posts.
You've gotten some really good replies, @LinSA and I doubt I'll be adding much value; but some random thoughts after reading the thread, for what it's worth. These thought's really aren't in a particular order.
- You seem to know that you don't know. Hey, that's a start! Better than not knowing that you don't know. But use that knowledge (that you don't know) to protect yourself. Don't go throwing $5k (and more importantly, goodness knows how many $k's in trading capital) on something that is uknown (and you've already admitted that you don't know).
- Books: I hear you. It's catch-22. You could read every book you can get your hands on - cheap and safe. But you need the time to do that, and you also need to have the attitude of not trying to find the holy grail...the 'answer'. Go and read 100 somewhat well selected list of books on investing / trading with the attitude that you just want to learn something you didn't know prior to reading the book...and it'll do you good. I started out literally as a teenager with no money simply reading every book in that section of the library. Options, futures, general stock market, fundamental analysis, charting, day-trading, Buffet...any and all. You sound like you don't have much time for reading...so maybe audiobooks? If you had to start with books...I'd actually suggest you start with some interview style books (or biographies of great traders). Why? Because systems and methods don't matter. Well, they do. But the truth is...people have 'won' (made money) with all kinds of different methods of trading, in various time frames, in various markets and asset classes. Get a basic education if you need to (free info or a book) on 'what are shares' 'what is investing' 'futures markets for dummies' etc. Just so you know the lingo and some basics! Read some interviews (Everyday traders by Nick Radge, the Wizards books are popular...biographies also etc) and at least get to hear about different views and approaches to markets. It's the friction of the different views and approaches that I'd like you to get. It's frustrating when you have those moments of, 'hey, who the heck is right? Will I ever figure this out?' but at least the win with these types of books is...you won't have wasted your time if you decide it's not for you. Reading people's life experiences and biography type stuff and trying to read between the lines will always be a benefit. What you want to avoid (if you're saving time) is a book such as, "My Secret System for 5% monthly gains in forex" that you might find in the Kindle store, or whatever. Go find interviews with investors / traders who really, really have made a great return...and find out their favourite books (they always get asked that question), and go read them. That would be a better start. Also, for interviews and time saving...go listen to interview type podcasts...there's loads of them. Listen to several, not just one. Be careful here. Podcasts are often used (not just in the trading world) to 'do the rounds' of promoting oneself. Nothing wrong with that...but just keep in the back of your mind that the interviewee may be genuine, or they may not. That's just the reality. If you manage to do something like this you'll have heard (or read) some people's stories, learned something...maybe learned more of what you don't know (and then go find out)...and maybe even resonate with a couple of people who do offer education, or signal services or whatever, that you may want to investigate further.
- You genuinely worry me with several things you repeatedly refer to. You have said that you are happy working 'x' amount of time per day. You said you know what return you'd be happy with. And you said you think you find this stuff really exciting. The thing with all that is: nobody cares. I don't mean that unkindly! I wouldn't normally say that, but I think it's helpful for you to hear it. Some people say it like, 'the market doesn't care'. No one cares what you'd fancy. The slick marketers of course, sell you on what you'd fancy ('buy this horse racing system...work 1 hour a day...make 6 figures). I'm not knocking what you're saying, just trying to get you to think. No one cares about what you want. The market says, 'bring your money, we'll take it' and the scammers say, 'bring your money, I'll take it'. No one is there to make sure you get your desired returns and keep your money...but you. However, at least your comment shows that you can filter out all the stuff like day trading, that won't be possible for you anyway. A couple times you mentioned how this is exciting for you. On the one hand...that's not bad! Of course you should be. I get excited over a new research paper (sad like that), others get excited over getting in deep with company research - that's all good. But temper that excitement. It might just be the feeling of context I'm getting when you refer to excitement...but part of me wants to say, 'blow a hundred at the casino for your excitement' because that's not what this should be about. Again - don't get me wrong. I enjoy this. I wouldn't actively trade / invest if I wasn't trying to beat the market return (some people still might, but I wouldn't). I get that. Just thoughts.
- The 'course' thing is really difficult. I can remember looking into them years ago as well, but I'm no longer familiar with all the latest and greatest. The thing I'd say is...there might be a good course for you, but at least getting familiar with different ways of trading (as above) will perhaps help steer you towards a course that's at least better fitted for where you're at. It's hard to even recommend you stick with the people who have been around a long time and have an education (there's several Australian trading educators I can think of that have been around for years, and as far as I know they're alright)...but the problem is...how do you know? I know of one, for example, here in Australia...who seems to have a good reputation, is an author (I've bought a book and enjoyed it for what it was), been around a long time, has done interviews that you'll find on various podcasts, and who sells stuff without a lot of slickster and hoopla (not going to go into details as I don't want to identify them here)...who I literally wouldn't trust or send someone too (even though I might have otherwise) when I saw the way their results changed due to retrofitting the past performance with new rules (and not stating such). When I asked them about it (I kept screen dumps) they gave a reason that simply didn't justify it, in my view. A new person checking them out would simply think what they offered had a lot better past performance than what the reality was. I've never sent a cent to this person, no sour grapes. But it makes me mad because I would never do that. Not without at least showing both sets of results! Anyway - without going further on that; all that to say - be careful!
- One last, probably unhelpful comment to close this post out. This is more about my philosophy of markets, I guess...you don't have to agree. The thing is...the market return is your biggest edge. Even for active investors, the market return is a large component of their edge. I guess even buying a market index is active, not passive (a kind of momentum strategy). But still, it's close to a passive investment in equities. Anything beyond that, i.e. 'active'...you're wanting to achieve something better than that 'passive' option. It might be better returns (that's me...and perhaps most?) but it might also be: better 'risk-adjusted returns', better consistency of returns, better income return than the market etc. To accomplish that, you're probably going to either need sheer good luck (hey, let's not forget that some people end up winners through nothing other than dumb luck)...or an informational edge, or an analytical edge or a behavioural edge. Now, I can't speak to discretionary approaches - my mind just can't think like that. Like tech/a describes above, I'm someone that needs to know, at least historically what I might be able to expect! But even within the quantitative approach...I believe that the shorter-term you go (which is theoretically desirable, as greater compounding can take place)...the more you are going to need an analytical edge. i.e. I need a better system than you to win. This is the kind of 'war' or 'competition' type of thing. Because 'trading' is more exciting, has greater (theoretical) potential for profit etc, it's what newbies often run into first. But the thing is...no-one is going to give you their informational or analytical edge. Knowledge is power. Or if they do, it probably is going to be at a decent price. A quick analogy: 1 person using a genuinely winning horse racing system = that person drinking champagne on their new yacht. Thousands of people using that same horse racing system = that original person scratching under the car seat for one more dollar to buy a cask. So...for an informational or analytical edge...you'll have to find your own. Or (presumably) pay a lot for someone else's (assuming it's even available). A behavioural edge is different. I can give you a winning system that relies on a behavioural edge (e.g. buy the market index and hold) and the behavioural edge would be actually doing it! The reality is...most won't. (Don't read this paragraph the wrong way and conclude that I'm advocating index investing). I could say, 'buy 50 companies that are relatively or absolutely cheap and have good accounting / fundamental qualities...and rebalance that portfolio every 6 months' and no-one would be like, 'wow - a holy grail'...i.e. there's no secret that these types of stocks have tended to beat the market over time. But the behavioural edge is in actually sticking with that method, year in and year out. Anyway - sorry this point might have thrown it off-topic a bit, but there's a point in there, somewhere, that I'm trying to get you to think about.
Good luck - you're getting some good responses, so hang in there.
'systematic' said...
"
There are two suggestions I would like to make:
1. Read 'systematic' post more than once
2. Print out 'systematic' post if you have a printer - his words are priceless & succinctly written.
Skate
To the contrary 'systematic'...
Go to https://scholar.google.com.au and research academic papers on financial markets. You will be better off in the long runI want to learn how to trade stocks (or whatever it is called, I am so new I am in Kindy!). As an absolute total beginner, I need a way to learn that isn't going to be too overwhelming. Sure I can go on youtube, google, books, but goodness knows what mis information may end up whirling in my head and eventually whirling down my bank account.
I had hoped I could find an organisation to train me. But I can't see any of them recommended in here. I have been researching several, most have very dubious backgrounds and absolutely no good reviews from students who have been using their methods for a period of time, well not legitimate ones anyway. As I previously spent a lot on property training of that kind I am more careful now. However one that I found Terry Tran - Freedom Traders, seems to have good reviews with people earning good annual profits. Plus I contacted some of the students and found that they have continued to go well. This has given me hope.
However I see in this forum that nobody really recommends any of these expensive courses. But if I don't go to one of them.... where do I learn in a safe way that doesn't chew up my learning while learning the hard way?
There have been really interesting points of view, it was really surprising to hear of the psychological view. That one really intrigues me as I have a background in that area.
At the end of the day all that matters is expectancy. Get the maths of expectancy right and everything else will fall into place.
It doesn't help you when your method trades outside of the parameters seen in testing.
How do you know if your method has failed or the market has changed significantly enough to alter your expectancy.
It's not easy and not everyone can do it.
However when you say not everyone can do it....... I would like to break this up a little and say that while I believe anyone can become quite competent and profitable at being a medium to long term trader.....that then does not mean that they can simply change over and trade short term competently or profitably as it requires a different skill set and temperament / mindset.
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