AOG - AVEO Group
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
It was sharply up, but on quite low volume. Next day: the hangman with a solid NO from the 90 mark.
Not looking good, especially with the Euro and US markets on Friday.
Bye bye breakout. And we hardly knew ye...
Best we can hope for is it'll find some new support at 77-80, I think.
It was sharply up, but on quite low volume. Next day: the hangman with a solid NO from the 90 mark.
Not looking good, especially with the Euro and US markets on Friday.
Bye bye breakout. And we hardly knew ye...
Best we can hope for is it'll find some new support at 77-80, I think.
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
Not before time too! The commercial property market is turning...albeit slowly..residential has been strong and will get stronger if the reported shortage in supply is correct.
Each day, we get some report of someone buying a property here and there in the Property Section of the AFR...ALZ buying the previous Stock Exchange building in Melbourne to redevelop into a commercial/residential complex...FKP bidding for a site in Sydney...Mirvac buying Westpac Office Trust for 2% above NTA...Charter Hall talking about lauching new unlisted trusts to buy properties (they think the investor appetite is returning)...etc etc...All this on top of foreign buying.
And all these purchases are at or above NTA! In contrast to many of the midsize to small listed property trusts, which are selling 20 to 40% BELOW NTA! something doesn't seem right here.
If it is good enough for the astute investor to put cold hard cash into real unlisted properties at NTA, it shouldn't be long before the discount we are seeing in the listed sector disappear, you would think.
Remember, before the GFC, REITS were trading at 10-50% premiums to NTA.
Not suggesting that's coming back in a hurry...but Discount...that's a different story...
The day FKP closed at 88c was also the day the AFR had an article on FKP looking at buying into a Sydney site for apartments development. The same article referred to FKP developing a couple of other projects, one of which is 100% pre-sold and the other 90% pre-sold.
Of all the sectors, residential is the strongest. And FKP is steering more and more into this sector. The company, according the CEO, who appeared on Business Spectator TV a few weeks ago, has a land bank, and does not have to buy anything to grow...It already has the land to develop. But hell, if you can add to your land bank at current depressed prices, why not.
With the rise and rise of residential property prices, it would not be too far fetched to suggest that the land bank must be increasing in value.
May be not straightaway...but at some stage...it is not unreasonable to assume that FKP will write UP (NOT down as it has been doing the last 2 years) the value of its property assets.
Its Dec 09 NTA was $1.27 a share. Well, it should be closer to $1.30 with the second (June 2010) half earnings one would think... and probably higher still if we allowed for some upvaluation of its land bank and retirement properties.
The anaylsts (always the ones to jump onto a current bandwagon..not the ones to tell you where the next bandwagon is!) say institutional investors are not interested in REITs now ....we hear that from time to time about any sector that is temporarily out of favour.
Make no mistake. These investors are out there to make money...anything that promises a good return will be pounced on...REITs included...So when the current incipient recovery in property stocks gathers momentum, look out for the stampede into them. It always happens. Wonder why instos were ploughing into tech stocks in 1999-2000, into entrepreneurial stocks in 1987. and into tulip stocks going way back?
Westfield's Frank Lowy, the Warren Buffet of the property investors, is giving us the best hint. Westfield is beefing up its development pipeline in the US...wait..no mistake...IN THE US, where there is hardly an analyst who dares stick his or her neck out with a positive recommendation on the sector.
And Westfield is not alone. Simon Properties and Brookfields not wanting to miss out on General Growth..
So FKP has had, in my humble view, attracted a stirring of interest...it is never an easy straight road...but give it 6 months or a year...the discount to NTA, barring any unforeseen developments, should close.
Stocks like ALZ, 26% discount to NTA, MGR etc etc will all rise, when that happens.
That's my humble opinion...but take your risk.
had a good day today finished at 88cup 6%. Anyone know whats pushing this? I hope this trend continues
Not before time too! The commercial property market is turning...albeit slowly..residential has been strong and will get stronger if the reported shortage in supply is correct.
Each day, we get some report of someone buying a property here and there in the Property Section of the AFR...ALZ buying the previous Stock Exchange building in Melbourne to redevelop into a commercial/residential complex...FKP bidding for a site in Sydney...Mirvac buying Westpac Office Trust for 2% above NTA...Charter Hall talking about lauching new unlisted trusts to buy properties (they think the investor appetite is returning)...etc etc...All this on top of foreign buying.
And all these purchases are at or above NTA! In contrast to many of the midsize to small listed property trusts, which are selling 20 to 40% BELOW NTA! something doesn't seem right here.
If it is good enough for the astute investor to put cold hard cash into real unlisted properties at NTA, it shouldn't be long before the discount we are seeing in the listed sector disappear, you would think.
Remember, before the GFC, REITS were trading at 10-50% premiums to NTA.
Not suggesting that's coming back in a hurry...but Discount...that's a different story...
The day FKP closed at 88c was also the day the AFR had an article on FKP looking at buying into a Sydney site for apartments development. The same article referred to FKP developing a couple of other projects, one of which is 100% pre-sold and the other 90% pre-sold.
Of all the sectors, residential is the strongest. And FKP is steering more and more into this sector. The company, according the CEO, who appeared on Business Spectator TV a few weeks ago, has a land bank, and does not have to buy anything to grow...It already has the land to develop. But hell, if you can add to your land bank at current depressed prices, why not.
With the rise and rise of residential property prices, it would not be too far fetched to suggest that the land bank must be increasing in value.
May be not straightaway...but at some stage...it is not unreasonable to assume that FKP will write UP (NOT down as it has been doing the last 2 years) the value of its property assets.
Its Dec 09 NTA was $1.27 a share. Well, it should be closer to $1.30 with the second (June 2010) half earnings one would think... and probably higher still if we allowed for some upvaluation of its land bank and retirement properties.
The anaylsts (always the ones to jump onto a current bandwagon..not the ones to tell you where the next bandwagon is!) say institutional investors are not interested in REITs now ....we hear that from time to time about any sector that is temporarily out of favour.
Make no mistake. These investors are out there to make money...anything that promises a good return will be pounced on...REITs included...So when the current incipient recovery in property stocks gathers momentum, look out for the stampede into them. It always happens. Wonder why instos were ploughing into tech stocks in 1999-2000, into entrepreneurial stocks in 1987. and into tulip stocks going way back?
Westfield's Frank Lowy, the Warren Buffet of the property investors, is giving us the best hint. Westfield is beefing up its development pipeline in the US...wait..no mistake...IN THE US, where there is hardly an analyst who dares stick his or her neck out with a positive recommendation on the sector.
And Westfield is not alone. Simon Properties and Brookfields not wanting to miss out on General Growth..
So FKP has had, in my humble view, attracted a stirring of interest...it is never an easy straight road...but give it 6 months or a year...the discount to NTA, barring any unforeseen developments, should close.
Stocks like ALZ, 26% discount to NTA, MGR etc etc will all rise, when that happens.
That's my humble opinion...but take your risk.
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
FKP looking ok compared to a year ago. Steady improvement has been reflected in the share price based on a decent turn around (4.53 cents profit per share v a loss of 70.3 cps in 2009).
FKP are still in the red from an assetts v liabilities perspective however it is looking better imo. Profitability is slowly increasing which can't be a bad thing either.
Decent run in the SP today based on Stockland saying they are comfortable holding their FKP stake add to that they have sold off their GPT stake and maybe Stockland will take another crack at FKP?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ke-sale-pd20101027-ALTTH?OpenDocument&src=hp6
FKP looking ok compared to a year ago. Steady improvement has been reflected in the share price based on a decent turn around (4.53 cents profit per share v a loss of 70.3 cps in 2009).
FKP are still in the red from an assetts v liabilities perspective however it is looking better imo. Profitability is slowly increasing which can't be a bad thing either.
Decent run in the SP today based on Stockland saying they are comfortable holding their FKP stake add to that they have sold off their GPT stake and maybe Stockland will take another crack at FKP?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ke-sale-pd20101027-ALTTH?OpenDocument&src=hp6
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nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
With a yield of $3.8%, the low Earnings per share and a highish price to earnings multiple, FKP is a fairly unloved share at the moment and this shows in the downward trajectory of the chart. However, at yesterdays closing price of $0.67, FKP is trading at probably the largest discount to NTA ($1.24) than any of the other Australian REIT's.
Recent volumes of turnover have been low and the majority of the stock is held by 5-6 share holders (most of whom are not selling). One the larger shareholders is Stockland Group.
Stockland invested in FKP and GPT before the gfc and has subquently unloaded the GPT stake. Stockland has also recently announced that it is negotiating to unload $200 million of Industrial assets to re-invest same in assets more in line with it's core strategy of Retail, Residential and Retirement (the 3 R's). Some is earmarket for residential developments and some will be used in other areas in line with their strategy of the 3 R's.
Their investment in FKP was allegedly because FKP also invests in "Retirement" which fitted in with SGP's long term strategy. Is it possible some of the $200 million might find it's way into FKP? Share purchase, joint venture, merger, acquisition??????
Dunno, but with the hefty discount to NTA and all the current interest of overseas hedge funds in our discounted reit's, FKP could be worth paying more attention too in the months ahead. It could get even cheaper. As always DYOR.
With a yield of $3.8%, the low Earnings per share and a highish price to earnings multiple, FKP is a fairly unloved share at the moment and this shows in the downward trajectory of the chart. However, at yesterdays closing price of $0.67, FKP is trading at probably the largest discount to NTA ($1.24) than any of the other Australian REIT's.
Recent volumes of turnover have been low and the majority of the stock is held by 5-6 share holders (most of whom are not selling). One the larger shareholders is Stockland Group.
Stockland invested in FKP and GPT before the gfc and has subquently unloaded the GPT stake. Stockland has also recently announced that it is negotiating to unload $200 million of Industrial assets to re-invest same in assets more in line with it's core strategy of Retail, Residential and Retirement (the 3 R's). Some is earmarket for residential developments and some will be used in other areas in line with their strategy of the 3 R's.
Their investment in FKP was allegedly because FKP also invests in "Retirement" which fitted in with SGP's long term strategy. Is it possible some of the $200 million might find it's way into FKP? Share purchase, joint venture, merger, acquisition??????
Dunno, but with the hefty discount to NTA and all the current interest of overseas hedge funds in our discounted reit's, FKP could be worth paying more attention too in the months ahead. It could get even cheaper. As always DYOR.
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nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
Nice bounce. Pity I got out at $0.70 to buy wbc.
Sometimes you get it right and sometimes you jump to early.
Nice bounce. Pity I got out at $0.70 to buy wbc.
Sometimes you get it right and sometimes you jump to early.
Julia
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
Re WBC, at least you'll get a better dividend on that.
Too early? Why did you wait until it fell to .70 to get out? Or did you hold through that downturn and get out when it went back up to 70c?Nice bounce. Pity I got out at $0.70 to buy wbc.
View attachment 43364
Sometimes you get it right and sometimes you jump to early.
Re WBC, at least you'll get a better dividend on that.
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
Entry point was $0.67, could have got $0.705 on open but held looking for an exit at $0.715. Had already taken an entry in wbc @ $21.25 on open and needed to close out fkp to cover wbc before close. Ergo took $0.70 before it dropped back to $0.695.
Will not be holding wbc for a div unless it takes that long to climb back to $22.30 which is my target exit price.
Entry point was $0.67, could have got $0.705 on open but held looking for an exit at $0.715. Had already taken an entry in wbc @ $21.25 on open and needed to close out fkp to cover wbc before close. Ergo took $0.70 before it dropped back to $0.695.
Will not be holding wbc for a div unless it takes that long to climb back to $22.30 which is my target exit price.
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
Dropped down to $0.665 on low volume, then good volumes came into play with cross trades at $0.67. Pushed up to $0.685 and looked like it would go to $0.69 on the low volumes in depth, however sellers came in pushing the closing price back to $0.68.
12.4 million turned over with most of it at $0.67. Someone is buying and someone is selling. Personally I looked at it as another entry opportunity, the bounce off $0.665 being (hopefully) a double bottom. If i'm wrong the next level of support appears to be the February 2010 levels of $0.64.
The NTA of $1.24 means the share price at $0.68 is running at a discount of approx 46%.
The chart is sourced, with thanks, from Incrediblecharts.com.
Dropped down to $0.665 on low volume, then good volumes came into play with cross trades at $0.67. Pushed up to $0.685 and looked like it would go to $0.69 on the low volumes in depth, however sellers came in pushing the closing price back to $0.68.
12.4 million turned over with most of it at $0.67. Someone is buying and someone is selling. Personally I looked at it as another entry opportunity, the bounce off $0.665 being (hopefully) a double bottom. If i'm wrong the next level of support appears to be the February 2010 levels of $0.64.
The NTA of $1.24 means the share price at $0.68 is running at a discount of approx 46%.
The chart is sourced, with thanks, from Incrediblecharts.com.
So_Cynical
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
WOW talk about timing and dumb luck...i brought 15000 shares in FKP this morning at 0.375 for my super fund, i spent a few hours trawling thru the ASX300 last night and somehow came up with FKP :dunno: funny cos i didn't even have it on a watch list and have never given the stock much thought...i only spent 20 minutes looking at the financials too.
I figured the debt situation wasn't to bad, the cap was substantial and the core business sound, its just that the last set of numbers weren't to good, with pretty much all the key numbers falling...but i figure well there is a housing down and substantial credit deleveraging going on so that's somewhat understandable.
The chart looked way way over sold...and then todays housing numbers came out and the SP popped.
~
WOW talk about timing and dumb luck...i brought 15000 shares in FKP this morning at 0.375 for my super fund, i spent a few hours trawling thru the ASX300 last night and somehow came up with FKP :dunno: funny cos i didn't even have it on a watch list and have never given the stock much thought...i only spent 20 minutes looking at the financials too.
I figured the debt situation wasn't to bad, the cap was substantial and the core business sound, its just that the last set of numbers weren't to good, with pretty much all the key numbers falling...but i figure well there is a housing down and substantial credit deleveraging going on so that's somewhat understandable.
The chart looked way way over sold...and then todays housing numbers came out and the SP popped.
~
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
The Intelligent Investor wrote a free article on FKP not too long ago about how under a liquidation type scenario you get a big return on your investment, despite the large amounts of debt on the balance sheet.
The Intelligent Investor wrote a free article on FKP not too long ago about how under a liquidation type scenario you get a big return on your investment, despite the large amounts of debt on the balance sheet.
skc
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
You are a lucky person, So_C. SGP will probably launch a takeover now that you have a position
On the charts it'd probably wander back towards 44-48c if the end of the world doesn't happen for another 2 months.
WOW talk about timing and dumb luck...i brought 15000 shares in FKP this morning at 0.375 for my super fund, i spent a few hours trawling thru the ASX300 last night and somehow came up with FKP :dunno: funny cos i didn't even have it on a watch list and have never given the stock much thought...i only spent 20 minutes looking at the financials too.
I figured the debt situation wasn't to bad, the cap was substantial and the core business sound, its just that the last set of numbers weren't to good, with pretty much all the key numbers falling...but i figure well there is a housing down and substantial credit deleveraging going on so that's somewhat understandable.
The chart looked way way over sold...and then todays housing numbers came out and the SP popped.
~
You are a lucky person, So_C. SGP will probably launch a takeover now that you have a position
On the charts it'd probably wander back towards 44-48c if the end of the world doesn't happen for another 2 months.
nulla nulla
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
There is a bit of an overhang in the main shareholders accounting for a very large chunk of the shares. Huge discount to nta but has been languishing for 12 months. Well done SC, don't be afraid to lock in your profits.
There is a bit of an overhang in the main shareholders accounting for a very large chunk of the shares. Huge discount to nta but has been languishing for 12 months. Well done SC, don't be afraid to lock in your profits.
So_Cynical
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
Yeah well it didn't take long for my profits to disappear FKP traded @ under my buy in price on Friday...still Monday is the start of a new week.
Yeah well it didn't take long for my profits to disappear
FKP traded @ under my buy in price on Friday...still Monday is the start of a new week.
nulla nulla
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
I feel for you SC. This is the only reit that I have done my dosh on. I bought in at $0.67 last year expecting a rebound then had to bail out at arround $0.49 in August 2011. Even though it rallied back to my entry price it has subsequently dropped back to new lows. Once burned etc etc. I have moved on. Good luck m8.
Yeah well it didn't take long for my profits to disappear
I feel for you SC. This is the only reit that I have done my dosh on. I bought in at $0.67 last year expecting a rebound then had to bail out at arround $0.49 in August 2011. Even though it rallied back to my entry price it has subsequently dropped back to new lows. Once burned etc etc. I have moved on. Good luck m8.
pixel
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
Still consolidating...
but today's scan suggest the bottom could be in place.
Still consolidating...
but today's scan suggest the bottom could be in place.
So_Cynical
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
Good call pixel...the bottom was in as proven by today's price action, FKP touching 43c intra-day.
6 Weeks later and im out today @ 0.42 ~ 11.1% profit in only 6 weeks is a totally acceptable result for such a short holding time.
~
Good call pixel...the bottom was in as proven by today's price action, FKP touching 43c intra-day.
6 Weeks later and im out today @ 0.42 ~ 11.1% profit in only 6 weeks is a totally acceptable result for such a short holding time.
nulla nulla
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
It looks like SC timed his exit well as the share price has retraced once again. The three (3) year chart doesn't paint a very nice picture. Something is driving the price down but I can't for the like of me understand what or why?
It looks like SC timed his exit well as the share price has retraced once again. The three (3) year chart doesn't paint a very nice picture. Something is driving the price down but I can't for the like of me understand what or why?
So_Cynical
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Re: FKP - FKP Property Group
If i had money i would be buying this again at 0.38 ~ plenty of scope for profit at that price IMO
In fact i think ill transfer some of my Super dollars into my super's transaction account...ready for a re-entry.
If i had money i would be buying this again at 0.38 ~ plenty of scope for profit at that price IMO
In fact i think ill transfer some of my Super dollars into my super's transaction account...ready for a re-entry.
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