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AOE - Arrow Energy

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Newbie questions regarding AOE March 2010

Hi everyone, newbie question:

I notice today that Arrow Energy (AOE) has had some significant gains over the last couple of days, and I see it was listed in the top 5 on ASX for gains (up $1.63 finishing at $5.11?) as well as top 5 for values of trades ($236,463,737.17).

Can someone please explain to me the reason for this sudden spike in share price and trading? I notice in the announcements it shows "08/03/2010: Non-binding Conditional Proposal" and then "09/03/2010: Becoming a substantial holder from NAB".

If someone could just explain in basic terms the relationship between either of these announcements and the sudden rise in trading/share price that would be great

Cheers
 
Re: Newbie questions regarding AOE March 2010

Royal Dutch Shell and Petro China offered shareholders $4.45 per security plus 1 share in Arrow's international business which the market values at 60c or so.

NAB got in before it fell to $3.30 or something and then bought in some more. It says they bought in again on the 03/03/10. Maybe they knew something.

Read the announcments and visit the AOE thread
 
HI all - have had some trouble loading Aussiestocks website on my machine in the past day or so....

Indeed - welcome back Chops. Long time no read!

On AOE - I'm still out at this stage - just crappy timing there... I might buy in yet - but more likely to throw more $$ at CXY at this stage.
- but the big question in my mind is about potential rival bidders for AOE -
What do folks think - is it likely one will come out of the woodwork, or are Shell JV looking at clear passage?
I mean - does BG need more Gas?.... could Santos do it? or are they just waiting to be jumped themselves?.... what about Orign? .. and of course there are anumber of international players who could be inticed.
 

I hold AOE (SMSF and trading position) so very happy with the t/o proposal. Personally, I think there is only upside as the first bid is very rarely the last bid and I would be buying more if I did not already hold plenty of AOE. Bit concerned about STO bidding and sold down some STO on Monday just in case. Plenty of potential competition - BG, STO and even WPL if Voelte has had a CSG conversion.
 
Interesting article in street talk in AFR this morning about potential rival bidders. Article initially suggests rival offer is unlikely as Arrow has been up for sale for 2 years whilst only attracting Shell. However, GDF Suez and BP are mentioned as left field candidates for a rival bid

I hold AOE
 
Well if they reject the offer and no other bid is received then the only option AOE has is to do a Capital Raising I would think Arrow would have spoken to New Hope Coal

laurie
 
A song I liked way back was called "Silence is Golden" don't know if thats a good thing or not for AOE then again the Directors said "Do Nothing" maybe that's what they are doing

laurie
 
Hmmm, trading halt on AOE until tuesday or an announcement is made.. ..looking forward to next week
 
laurie said:
I wouldn't be look forward to next week if my holding in AOE is stolen from me like QGC was

laurie
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more Laurie

Don't know if I should or can say this here, as I can't confirm it, but,
my mail is that the board will recomend acceptance of the offer, which from my point of view will be little more than fat boy sanctioned theft.....

But it wouldn't surprise me if that's the way it goes, all of these Queensland Gas mobs have been sold for a pittance, shamefull for Australia really....
 

namrog

It is in a trading halt, so not really issue what you say, I suspect. Do you believe the $4.45 plus a share in AOEI will be recommended or a higher amount?
 
laurie said:
I wouldn't be look forward to next week if my holding in AOE is stolen from me like QGC was

laurie
Click to expand...

My sentiment too Laurie. It is a sad state of affairs to see them all taken over by o/seas interests one by one. Our government shouldn't allow it.
 
The directors are pleased to announce we have acted on behalf of shareholders and have sold out to Shell at a cheap price

laurie

ps oh its ok to put your pants back on
 
laurie said:
The directors are pleased to announce we have acted on behalf of shareholders and have sold out to Shell at a cheap price

laurie

ps oh its ok to put your pants back on
Click to expand...

Hi Laurie,
I agree the directors were a bit too quick to accept this offer.
Others would do well to learn the lesson here - it may seem good that a major takes an interest in your company as it proves you have something it wants but once it has a large enough interest it can make a take over bid on its own terms and other bidders are out of the race because it has a large enough interest to thwart their bid. In the end the shareholders suffer.
 
I afraid the response I would like to give would suspend me from this great site. I lost QGC and now AOE and tell you what,Shell is grooming Arrow International assets for another T/O when Arrow gets it to the same stage as the domestic assets

laurie
 
When I first bought into Arrow in 2004 I had visions of it becoming a $5 share. Now that it's there I feel disappointed with this offer because my expectations increased over the years.
 
I must have missed something here.

We have an increased offer of $4.70 plus a share in the yet to be formed ASX company, Dart Energy which will consist of all of the international holdings plus the other Australian CSM assets (NSW). Also Dart will be managed by the current Arrow team (a big plus in my eyes).

If the new listed entity (Dart Energy) was valued at 55-70 cents for the assets alone (by Arrow and analysts), add to that Shell are now kicking in $45 million cash and a loan of $25 million US to get the business up and running quickly, then this offer is certainly a sweetened deal.

Estimates so far are that Dart Energy will list at $1.00 per share minimum per share so the current deal on the table is worth $5.70 per share for Arrow holders yet it went backwards today.

Best guess is that its because speculators wanted a higher cash offer. For investors this is a better offer to my mind however it requires a bit of faith in the Arrow team to build the value of the NSW and International assets. At least we know they wont be tapping investors for cash now that Shell have thrown in the $45 million to kick it off.

 
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