ANL - Amani Gold

[Nicks]

Nicks Its on page 12 "Loyalty option" Short version below, hopefully not many typos

"The offer will be to all shareholders registered on the date approximately three months after the shares commence trading.
1 Option for every 2 shares held.
Options will be issued at a price of 1.0 cent each with a exercise price off 20 cents with a expiry date of 30 June 2008. "

Thanks alot nvox. So the magical three month date is?? or is that what everyone is waiting for?

 

[greggy]

Latest sale price is 29c. Seller is at 29c. No need to panic.
DYOR

 

[nvox]

Nicks
Going by ASX "Official Listing Date 14 December, 2006"
No real Idea but I'm guessing March-ish ??

 

[JimBob]

As others have already said, with a small amount of shares on offer and relatively low volume at the moment, it only takes one or two buyers or sellers to move the share price a few cents in either direction.

 

[Nicks]

Im a bit concerned there are very few buyers, price could drop considerably very quickly?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Good to know that Pato's who are very familiar with GRY's Banfour gold project are bullish on BYR's Masounia project and are eagerly waiting for the results as well,

And why wouldn't they be,

Lets assume for arguments sake that BYR come up with a 30Mt resource grading just under 1g/t Au = 1M oz's Gold

Lets say the conceputal open pit operation is designed is such away that its staged so that the project cash flow pays for expansion and development,

Intially the may need $5m to begin,

Lets assume over the life of the projecrt cash operating costs which are usually $400oz in African low grade deposits, But lets assume really bad case for BYR and say $700oz

Lets also assume LT spot of $600us oz and exchange rate of 75c so LT AUD Spot = $800 oz


NPV calcs (Note all in AUD)
Spot = $800
Cash Costs = $700
Margin = $100

1Moz's@$100oz = $100m

Assume Cap Ex $10m

NPV = $90m = probably $2 a share

And thats using 30Mt@under 1g/t Au and cash cost of $700 oz

 

[stoxclimber]

Im a bit concerned there are very few buyers, price could drop considerably very quickly?

well, the price could drop very quickly..but realistically if you look at the companys projects a share price in the range of e.g. 10-15c cant really be justified. When you're in the microcaps its pretty easy to move the share price a significant percentage either way with a small amount of funds - another reason to avoid the imo ridiculous idea of a stop loss.

 

[Stimpy]

When you're in the microcaps its pretty easy to move the share price a significant percentage either way with a small amount of funds - another reason to avoid the imo ridiculous idea of a stop loss.

Spot on. A little tree shaking and suddenly, as the little people's stop losses fire, the price drops sharply. Suddenly, many big orders appear as if from nowhere.

Yes, I'm talking about HLX.

 

[greggy]

Im a bit concerned there are very few buyers, price could drop considerably very quickly?

Hi Nicks,

Are you holding this one or are you attempting to force the price down so that you'll get them at an attractive price? DYOR

 

[nizar]

When you're in the microcaps its pretty easy to move the share price a significant percentage either way with a small amount of funds - another reason to avoid the imo ridiculous idea of a stop loss.

So how do you go about risk management?
Pray and Hope?

 

[greggy]

So how do you go about risk management?
Pray and Hope?

I did a little bit of columns A and B back in Oct 87 (post crash), it didn't help. You've just got to have a trading strategy and stick to it. Whenever a stock in my portfolio falls I take a closer at it to try and determine the reasons for the fall, sometimes its just traders being irrational.
DYOR
DYOR

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi Nicks,

Are you holding this one or are you attempting to force the price down so that you'll get them at an attractive price? DYOR

No offence Nicks but thats exactly what I thought,

Your no beginner, you've been around the block here for awhile no so a question like "Im a bit concerned there are very few buyers, price could drop considerably very quickly?" seems silly to say the least

 

[Nicks]

Hi Nicks,

Are you holding this one or are you attempting to force the price down so that you'll get them at an attractive price? DYOR

Hey there Greggy and YT,

Actually just commenting on a fact in this discussion.

If posting a comment on this forum influenced things as you suggest then I would be a billionaire by now. :

If I was holding it then I am looking for comment as I am a concerned holder working out what I should do, if I am not holding it then I am attempting to force the price down. Perhaps I am not holding and considering buying but am concerned about the fact I described? You can draw whatever conclusions you like. This is a discussion forum after all.

Holders sometimes do get a bit paranoid.

 

[nizar]

No offence Nicks but thats exactly what I thought,

Your no beginner, you've been around the block here for awhile no so a question like "Im a bit concerned there are very few buyers, price could drop considerably very quickly?" seems silly to say the least

Damn right Gordon Gekko is no beginner!! LOL (in ref to Nicks avatar)

 

[Nicks]

What great movie huh!

Actually I also hold a bucket of KAL shares. Looking at getting BYR shares soon hopefully through this avenue.

Gordon

p.s. Im a bit concerned there are a lot of buyers in KAL. Price could go up very quickly......

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

What great movie huh!

Actually I also hold a bucket of KAL shares. Looking at getting BYR shares soon hopefully through this avenue.

Gordon

Oh I see your plan Nicks,

Cause some panic selling so you can acquire as much BYR as possible

and then its a call to the Australian Paper, Ext 104 "Blue Horse Shoe loves Burey Gold" : :

 

[Nicks]

Hmmmm

Blue Horse Shoe Loves Avoca resources.

Check out the AVO thread for all those interested in gold stocks. You cant go wrong with gold fundamentals in these times.

 

[stoxclimber]

So how do you go about risk management?
Pray and Hope?

I invest in companies that I believe are undervalued which in itself limits the downside price movement. Secondly, depending on the price movements I may chose to exit the stock for whatever reason but its a decision i make based on the facts at the time & using my intelligence, not some arbitrary price limit.


IMO if you have access to a computer whenever you need it, and you're investing fundamentally, theres no rational reason to use a stop loss (provided you arent levered). If you're convinced that the average market participant is smarter than you at analysis, and thus the markets views in the price of a microcap falling x% outweights any fundamental analysis you have conducted on the company, then you should not be investing.

 

[happytown]

the volume today has not been excessive

the visible sell side market depth is not overwhelming

i suspect that those who picked up on the brief minor dip today are happy with their entry price

cheers

 

[greggy]

Hey there Greggy and YT,

Actually just commenting on a fact in this discussion.

If posting a comment on this forum influenced things as you suggest then I would be a billionaire by now. :

If I was holding it then I am looking for comment as I am a concerned holder working out what I should do, if I am not holding it then I am attempting to force the price down. Perhaps I am not holding and considering buying but am concerned about the fact I described? You can draw whatever conclusions you like. This is a discussion forum after all.

Holders sometimes do get a bit paranoid.

Just a mischievous comment on my part, no hint of paranoia. I've been in this business for 28 years and I've probably outlasted many a share trader. I can read between the lines of much of what is written on this forum. I for one think that YT does a great job along with Kennas & Co. and its good of him to clearly state his positions. I don't think he's paranoid either.
DYOR