Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

An excellent story for investors

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Garpal Gumnut said:
However with shares when you fall out of love, with a mouse click you can terminate the relationship.

I don't like cats neither but would never do them any harm. I believe they do not like the mouse.

gg
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lots of chuckles :p:
cheers
 
Wysiwyg said:
One belief is this, after a lead in mentioning Warren Buffet ...


To me that is not investing, that is buy and hold in hope of your share turning around to double in price +. So within 30% down is okay but anymore then sell.
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I totally agree. There are going to be very few times that a company can fall by 30% and the fundamentals not changed. The company may be able to come back and make a profit, but generally the does not like this company for a reason that may have been missed.

And don't forget, that if you make a 30% loss, from that day the sp needs to increase by 43%, just to break even.
 
tommymac said:
... And don't forget, that if you make a 30% loss, from that day the sp needs to increase by 43%, just to break even.
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And don't forget, that if price drops 3 cents, from that day the sp needs to increase by 3 cents, just to break even.
 
burglar said:
And don't forget, that if price drops 3 cents, from that day the sp needs to increase by 3 cents, just to break even.
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I started investing pre-gfc, when the gfc hit my portfolio got ripped, probably 80% lost. from 20k the worst was down to about 3 - 4k I waited for it to recover until I saw about 7k and it was time to move on. Now around 60 - 70 trades later I broke even and have made profit which is still all invested. Dumped the original stocks and never looked back at them again.

However most of the shares I had bought pre-gfc have never fully recovered, I did not hold any blue chips but had a few companies around $ 1 - 2 value and a few around 50c mark.

I don't think any of them have even close come to being at the sp that they were when I bought, one of the $1 shares is trading at 22c mark now but it was all the way down to 4c at the very bottom.

I could still be holding them .. and holding and holding. Too many wasted opportunities and time!

You might as well buy property if you are just going to hold like that and watch the garden grow.
 
I was playing with the market a bit before the GFC.

After I got my super return for that year I decided to take matters into my own hands and started to manage my super myself.

In about three weeks I will have been managing my SMSF for two years and the return in that time has been 600%. :D

It has been a life changing experience for me. In a couple of years I plan to buy a nice place outright with my SMSF and rent it out for a few years until I have reestablished my trading capital to a level whereby I can trade the markets for a living in "retirement".

My goal is to be independantly wealthy and in comfortable home ownership and completely in control of my own destiny by age 50.

:)
 
Julia said:
Have a listen to this, robusta. It will answer your question.

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/stories/2011/3155329.htm
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Funny how we look at things dark pools are very interesting.

First of all a disclaimer:

I am not interested in getting into a fundamental investing versus trend following debate. I know a fundamental approach produces satisfactory results and assume trend following, technical analysis or any combination will also produce satisfactory results

From my point of view point of view when I first read about dark pools a few months ago I could see opportunities for me.

I invest in very few companies and when I do I want to take advantage of any market inefficiency.

The same with the emergence of ETF's any broad based buying selling of indexes or sectors is sure to leave some individual companies under or over priced compared to their IV.

againsthegrain said:
I started investing pre-gfc, when the gfc hit my portfolio got ripped, probably 80% lost. from 20k the worst was down to about 3 - 4k I waited for it to recover until I saw about 7k and it was time to move on. Now around 60 - 70 trades later I broke even and have made profit which is still all invested. Dumped the original stocks and never looked back at them again.

However most of the shares I had bought pre-gfc have never fully recovered, I did not hold any blue chips but had a few companies around $ 1 - 2 value and a few around 50c mark.
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Blue chip whatever that means does not have anything to do with the sp IMO.

againsthegrain said:
I don't think any of them have even close come to being at the sp that they were when I bought, one of the $1 shares is trading at 22c mark now but it was all the way down to 4c at the very bottom.

I could still be holding them .. and holding and holding. Too many wasted opportunities and time!

You might as well buy property if you are just going to hold like that and watch the garden grow.
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Here we get back to the individuals investment philosophy, many companies with good fundamentals have thrived through this period.
 
robusta said:
Here we get back to the individuals investment philosophy, many companies with good fundamentals have thrived through this period.
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Well thats exactly what im trying to say, going by the investment philosophy of the article I would still be at least 50% down holding and being in love on fundamentals. Alot of companies had great fundamentals before the gfc then things changed, then like you say many thrived.
 
againsthegrain said:
Well thats exactly what im trying to say, going by the investment philosophy of the article I would still be at least 50% down holding and being in love on fundamentals. Alot of companies had great fundamentals before the gfc then things changed, then like you say many thrived.
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By definition the ones that do not thrive do not have GREAT fundamentals.

Wysiwyg said:
But only in hindsight. :)
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Sorry but that is a load of nonsense.
 
Wysiwyg said:
No need to be sorry simply tell us how you knew the share prices would be where they are now.
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OK I should clarify. I have no way of predicting share prices but I can spot a extraordinary business that will outperform the market in the long term.
They all have in common; competitive advantage, little or no debt and a high ROE.
Some examples are COH, MND, FGE, MCE, CBA, ORL, ARP, FWD.

If you could buy any of the above at a reasonable price I think a buy and hold strategy would work out OK.
 
Wysiwyg said:
By definition the ones that do not thrive do not have GREAT fundamentals.
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I don't understand that comment, no company on asx is 100% guaranteed success, you can have great fundamentals, everything excellent on paper, have a unlucky streak drill a few dusters and you are done for, suddenly GREAT fundamentals turn to butter.

Take MEO as a example, some poor guys were buying in at $1.00 back over a year ago when they hit great gas shows, everybody was screaming great fundamentals! Dust settled back at 50c, more projects to come future wells - great fundamentals was still on the books.

Few months ago DUSTER! bang down to under 20c, fundamentals suddenly not so good, will it ever even get close to $1.00 for those that might of bought at the top and are patiently waiting for their return?

I can't agree that great fundamentals will always remain great and those with not so great will always remain in bad position.
 
againsthegrain said:
I don't understand that comment
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Neither do I since I can't recall nor find typing that quote in this thread. :eek:
Take MEO as a example
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Not for fundamentals. Most if not all "investors" see MEO as a "speculative" trading stock.

Few months ago DUSTER! bang down to under 20c, fundamentals suddenly not so good, will it ever even get close to $1.00 for those that might of bought at the top and are patiently waiting for their return?
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The nature of "speculative trading" stocks.

I can't agree that great fundamentals will always remain great and those with not so great will always remain in bad position.
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So true. Nothing stays the same and every dog has its day.
 
robusta said:
OK I should clarify. I have no way of predicting share prices but I can spot a extraordinary business that will outperform the market in the long term.
They all have in common; competitive advantage, little or no debt and a high ROE.
Some examples are COH, MND, FGE, MCE, CBA, ORL, ARP, FWD.

If you could buy any of the above at a reasonable price I think a buy and hold strategy would work out OK.
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Good reply and you obviously believe in a continuing bull run (demand for goods, services, rocks etc.) but for the record could you briefly define a "reasonable price" please.
 
Wysiwyg said:
Good reply and you obviously believe in a continuing bull run (demand for goods, services, rocks etc.)
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No I believe most things are cyclical; economies, sectors and individual businesses. Some businesses however have the ability to outperform throughout the cycle, these businesses are extremely valuable and normally trade at a premium to their intrinsic value

Wysiwyg said:
but for the record could you briefly define a "reasonable price" please.
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When the share price is at a discount to my calculation of intrinsic value. Normally 20% plus.

I mainly use Roger Montgomery's method to calculate IV.
 
Okay, all the best with your investment strategy for the future.
 

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