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AMT Model & Methodology

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following this mornings report.....


----- Original Message -----
From: frankd@fdtradeco
Sent: Tuesday, August 07, 2007 10:29 AM
Subject: Dilernia Report 7th August 2007


Discreationary shorts on open to trade Gap fill, exit 5953 and
move to neutral positions. (stops) above today's highs or
breakeven from entry if there is a bounce off R22 lows @ 5968.

Expectation gap will fill @ 5947, an 44 points down from highs
is 5946, so there is a cluster of support here for anyone looking
to trade longs, confirmed longs wound be trading with R22 hooks
to move back into highs.

Don't trade longs below 5947 today.




----- Original Message -----
From: frankd@fdtradeco
Sent: Tuesday, August 07, 2007 11:47 AM
Subject: Dilernia Report 7th August 2007


Expected support 5947 reached and R44 lows.

confirmed supported would need to see a R22 hook off these
levels, and then continue higher back into an R44 high.

Day traders buying off 5947 can partial exits @22 points up
from swing lows and run open position into R44 high or double
22 top. (if R22 swing high is reached move stops to below todays lows)

Not sure how the rest of the day into tomorrow will fair because
the DOW is drifting lower after reaching 13494, can only expect
much higher moves if US markets break 50% levels tonight.

Frank Dilernia
 
Partial exits around 95 points swing lows @ 13420, stops now above
3-day highs holding rest




Frank Dilernia
 
SPI...

Yesterdays expectation on SPI was trade either side of 6004,
with the expectation that gap needed to be closed @ 5947
first before the up move could continue into 6050.

Today the open aligned 6004 with the Rally into 6050, where there
is major resistance, and it doesn’t help when the market rallies
44 points because on most 44 point rallies sellers like to hit
the market or cap it.

However a break on this and the next up move will be into 6085
and then continue higher based on primary range bars and breakout.

No shorts are taken at this level, it’s partial exits with
the expectation the market is going to move higher.

The only weak pattern is if the market stalls at this level
today and then breaks back below 5998 tomorrow.



Yesterdays report on US markets highlighted the higher weekly low
in the forward weekly timeframe forewarning another up day
resulting in a break of the higher timeframe 50% levels.

Mostly weekly patterns that start from weekly lows (Monday)
breaking a 3-week 50% level the expectation is that markets
move from one level into the next, so the expectation is that
price can make higher highs back into 13875 on the DOW and
1526.50 on ES.

If Wednesday ends up closing below 13493 on DOW, based on
2 day rally 3rd day reversal, then market will probably be
choppy into end of the trading week, with next best trading
set-up next week

Frank Dilernia
 
Expectation market would continue higher today, with the break
of the range pushing market towards 6085.

6084 was an exit zone today, but not a shorting zone. Even though
my system shorted at the highs it was more for profit
protection because the model favours higher moves.

It doesn't happen often but the rotation down into an R44 low
which aligned with breakout support provided another long into close and exit at 6084 again.



Frank Dilernia
 
good shout for 6,085 Frank I see we hit 6,087 twice today for HOD
 
Frank D.... 1st August 2007 (recap)

If the market is going to head higher, the SPI needs to
stabilize around the 200 M/A (August lows) and continue to consolidate
for a number of weeks before any up trend can continue.

If we get support and consolidation for a few weeks then
swing traders should do extremely well into the end of the
Quarter, as prices rotate between support and resistance and large
Range days continue.

Market has completed the 2-period down move into August lows @ 5922.

The same pattern as in 2006....

This rotation down into Quarterly 50% levels and 2-monthly
extended down move happens every year, it is what occurs from
now that will give traders an idea how the rest of the quarter
plays out, because a Bullish market should move into a
multi-week consolidating phase using these levels as support
zone.

8th August 2007

“The only weak pattern is if the market stalls at this level
today and then breaks back below 5998 tomorrow.”

www.datafeeds.com.au/Dilerniareport10thAugust.pdf


Frank Dilernia
 
So much for 5988...its headed for the daily pivot S1, 5959! Well, thats on the Aussie200 anyway.

Nice work Frank.

Cheers,
 
There is a current thread running on Dr Doom predicting we are moving into
a bear market….

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=189929#post189929

Here are my thoughts...

I made the analysis at the start of this year that the market will run up
in 2007 and into Quarterly tops before the market got hit and probably
move down before the next up move in 2008.

I don’t think we are going into a bear market, I think in 2008 we will
back around the highs or even making new highs….

Crash patterns and bear markets are two totally different things, and at
the moment it’s neither. It’s a pullback after a run up, we have just run
up further than normal so the pullback looks more server.

A ‘crash’ pattern is if the SPI hits 4860-4900 (2007 50%) which is a
perfect time to start moving back into equities, and my opinion the
market will back to where we are now or higher in 2008.

I’m not suggesting the market will even go that low, but I know my
timing of re-entering stock positions on margin and it will be this year.

Bear markets need to move in a multi monthly sideways pattern in
1 year and then break lower the following year.

So if the rest of 2007 moves sideways and consolidates around the
current range (without reaching 4890) and is stuck in a channel for a
number months coming into 2008 then I’d be concerned if the market
takes out the 2008 yearly 50% levels.

If that’s the case then look for 2 years down.

I’m looking to buy back in when the market is aligned with my methodology
and model with the expectation markets will back around the highs again.

I won’t be looking to BUY if the market is in a bear market, and we
are certainly not in one now or the forseeable future regardless of all
the bad news floating around.




1st January 2007

Years ending in 7 are notorious for experiencing some of the heaviest selling because of some outside influence that has spooked the markets. I’ve never been a ‘market-bear’ and never will be a ‘bear’ because I think any selling in the markets is just an opportunity to buy at cheaper prices, but in 2007 I think that once we move up into the higher quarterly extensions in either Jan-March 2007, or July-October 2007 then I’ll be looking for any hint of sustained weakness with confirming change of 3-period cycles. Most of any selling comes around the same cyclical patterns in the trading year. From past experiences and if we subscribe to the markets often repeating themselves then those patterns are around extended highs in the first or the 3rd Quarter of the year.

Any weakness in 2007 will probably be just be a minor hiccup within the decade bull trend, just like May 2006 when markets tumbled before heading higher into the end of the year.

If there is a hiccup in 2007 then there will be a scapegoat or something to blame, but just as I’m painting a bearish picture for this year, it also allows us the potential too enter the market at cheaper prices. It seems a contradiction, but falling markets helps to increase our wealth because it gives us to opportunity to buy at cheaper prices

Regards,
Frank Dilernia
 


A excellent and objective point of view Frank.

I also read in the truth of the stock tape, that Gann also said that patterns of distribution require months to form.

Cheers
Joseph
 
sorry Frank, can I ask you which kind of technical software did you use to create this chart automatically?
is one tool of fibotrader or something else?
do you sell it with the book?

let me know
ciao
 
SPI..

Below is the SPI chart, I’ve circled lower opens and gap rallies
and Gap sells in the market based on the open of the trading
day, and the Primary Range alignment.

Right at the bottom of today I have a gap rally??? It doesn’t
show on the Chart, but let’s look at the R87.



Each rally or reversal in the market was followed with a
‘Gap’ in the Primary Range.

The down move from this week (6004) there were no gaps in
the market, each day open rallied 44-49 points reversed and took
out each R87 low resulting in trending down days following
the weekly pattern lower.

Even though there were gaps in the Day session, there were no
gaps on the R87 until right at today’s bottom…





So what happens today, they close the market down for 1.5
hours, open the market on a lower gap, and we have a Gap
rally!!!

Once it moved back above 5553 and took out the ‘Hook’ the
market went like a rocket and never looked back.

I would like to see the market settle around 5650 before the
next swing upwards.


Frank Dilernia


Market Dynamic Model The DILERNIA model ©

OTD Open Trading Dynamics © Frank Dilernia 2003-2007
 
That push down on Thursday on US markets and today’s rebound
off major support levels will probably send markets in a
massive consolidation phase into September. I don’t think those
lows will break lower again this month… (Spi) Yesterday’s drop
into 5650 and my view is that the market will rotate back to 5950.

Ideally I would like the market to come down Friday and form a
base and rise up from a lower weekly open, this will give traders
a much better option to capture any advance up move.
(August 17th 2007)




Monday opened above the 3-week 50% level @ 5749, it was above
this level for the first time in a few weeks, with the break of
the 3-day average highs (5784-805) sending the market back towards
major distribution zones on the SPI around 5950.

I’m still looking for consolidation into September with
massive swings in the market on a daily basis…..

Frank Dilernia
 
Market closes above the 3-weeks highs at the close of the trading week @ 6190...(24 hour market)

Market Risk level next week 6186... not expecting too much
downside, any rotation will be back into the Friday's lows
6071 which will be the 3-day lows and move into a
consoldiation phase into end of the week and into September.

Further rotation down more than likely to occur from September,
and Whilst trading above 6185 push upwards into 6255 before
looking for reversals in the market.




Most reversals off lows occured at the same level each day. All Buying support came off double R44 lows each day as it continued to follow the weekly trend higher



Above shows Dilernia Pivots using R44 ranges bars, each level is
clearly defined. The trader never trades against the Risk level. The trader
are trading as close to support or resistance with the expectation price
has to move 1 44 away until the range completes.

Previous days pivot plays an important role on trend direction.

Thursday's pivot was 6138, it opened at this level and pushed upwards
44 points, and then down 44 points once it crossed over.
Friday sell-off occured from Thursday's pivot 6138 into Fridays Pivot
low. (Information should be in new book (not finished yet)

Whilst price is either above or below the Risk level price has to move
1 min 44 point direction before it completes and continues with the Trend,
it takes the guess work out on trying to pick the direction on
intra-day moves and removes a lot of the noise.


Frank Dilernia
 
Hopefully the book should be ready by the end of September. i'll let you know when.

Due to Asic I can’t post the Dilernia Report in this forum or give my view on Markets because they think I’m giving specific trading advice. I gather Asic was informed of the Dilernia report and my posts because someone ‘dobber’ thought it was appropriate to inform them. In fairness I’m not licensed so I can’t do it.

So my posts from now on will be like every other technical view, thus being delayed. A bit like Elliot Wave, subjective, always lagging and late.

The Dilernia Report will continue for buyers of the book, it will be free for first month as an educational tool so traders get an understanding the contents of the book and how it fits in with markets on a daily basis.

As long as I don’t give BUY and Sell recommendations, and the report is only part of an educational tool and follow up to the book, then it’s OK. Just like Darryl Guppy does with his report.

I find it strange that I’ve called the market as I seen it for years, accurately and precisely, given heaps of free educational tips on trading, introduced so many to different ways of trading that has robust parameters and set-ups, which now many traders use directly or indirectly around the globe, and it was never a problem before. But once you start charging for a report someone feels threatened and they jump all over you.


The contents of the book will give an insight to principles of successful trading, whether you are a stock or futures trader. Objective, Clear and Precise

Brent Penfold is writing a new book, there will be an entire Chapter devoted to the Dilernia Model. Also my new book will be priced much cheaper than the previous one along with a free Daily Report on Trading.

Thank you for your support.

Regards,
Frank Dilernia
 
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