ALQ - ALS Limited

[herzy]

Re: CPB - Campbell Brothers

It was their AGM today and they issued FY13 H1 guidance which the market clearly didn't like.

$130-$140m NPAT which isn't really that bad imo - full year EPS = ~$4 so $70 per share was too steep, but ~$48-50 is more than fair.

Unless I missed some of the outlook statement in the chairman's presentation otherwise it may be overdone.

Profit still up a good 25% on last year. Yeah they said ongoing revenues likely to slow down due to decreases in mining/resources sectors, china, europe etc.

Still, solid company - I think I'll buy in for a medium term, have been waiting for a sub-$50 opportunity.

 

[herzy]

Re: CPB - Campbell Brothers

Sacrilegious for a value-based investor like my self I know, but for any traders: A sharp drop is usually proceeded by a few days of continued droppage, correct? Or is there likely to be a bounce...?

If I intend to buy anyway, may's well try to get the best price!

 

[burnie]

At the moment ALQ is at $7.34 having come down from around $9.50 a few weeks ago when they split 5 for 1. ANy one know the reason for that? Seems like a solid company at a cheap price.

I bought some Campbell Bros shares, just before they split and became ALS Group, at around $46, thinking that was a good price, now they seem like a bargain. Keen to buy some more.

 

[herzy]

At the moment ALQ is at $7.34 having come down from around $9.50 a few weeks ago when they split 5 for 1. ANy one know the reason for that? Seems like a solid company at a cheap price.

I bought some Campbell Bros shares, just before they split and became ALS Group, at around $46, thinking that was a good price, now they seem like a bargain. Keen to buy some more.

I'm of the same opinion - keep getting hammered, and not many sellers so it may drop a bit more. The only reason I can think of is that people see it as a mining services stock, and it's getting punished as a result? If so, then that's entirely illogical. Not sure what % minerals testing contributes to overall revenue, but it can't be THAT much - and I feel like minerals testing wouldn't suffer as much as other aspects of mining either?

I agree, great company at a significant discount to historical prices. Would appreciate others' thoughts!

 

[Ves]

I'm of the same opinion - keep getting hammered, and not many sellers so it may drop a bit more. The only reason I can think of is that people see it as a mining services stock, and it's getting punished as a result? If so, then that's entirely illogical. Not sure what % minerals testing contributes to overall revenue, but it can't be THAT much - and I feel like minerals testing wouldn't suffer as much as other aspects of mining either?

I agree, great company at a significant discount to historical prices. Would appreciate others' thoughts!

ALS minerals is about 50% of revenue according to the 2012 FY investor preso.

edit: EBIT from minerals was in the mid 60s in 2012 (rough calcs), and at the rate of forecast growth will be somewhere near 70% of all EBIT by the end of 2013.

 

[Ves]

Too late to edit the above post, but:

I will leave the 2014 forecasts to you guys. With one caveat: have a look at how each division held up during the commodities slump / financial crisis a few years back. I think there will be downgrades, and the market is now starting to slowly realise that. Expect consensus earnings for 2014 to reduce in line.

However, long term... does this company have a competitive advantage? If so, can they use it to boost market share whilst other companies are struggling? The laboratories markets are fragmented, and industry wide growth is predicted in most of the segments that they operate in. The company used the super-cycle to diversify into some of these TIC segments.

Lots of things to consider, and if it keeps falling it may be an interesting pick-up if you can get the analysis of their whole of cycle returns close.

 

[oldblue]

ALQ having a nice run today - up 4% to over $11.

Well done to those who have bought in recent months! I'm holding at an average cost of around $3 and see no reason to quit them.

 

[Muschu]

ALQ having a nice run today - up 4% to over $11.

Well done to those who have bought in recent months! I'm holding at an average cost of around $3 and see no reason to quit them.

Not good days at the office recently though........

 

[piggybank]

Not good days at the office recently though........

Not much better atm in that it has dropped by 20% in just over a month.

 

[herzy]

ALQ just keeps dropping.

Mining slump has hit this services company quite hard.

Yield is getting higher and it's getting cheaper.

Will continue to watch. This is one company I'd like to buy into at the right time (big, diversified, able to survive the cyclical nature of resources, etc) - but I think there's more pain to be had in the resources sector yet.

 

[notting]

Another mining investment crisis?

 

[VSntchr]

View attachment 84877

Another mining investment crisis?

Extend that % change column to even just a few days and you got a vastly different picture for majority of that list

 

[greggles]

Nice 11.41% share price spike today for ALS Limited following the release of its FY18 financial results.

The highlights:

• Underlying NPAT of $142.2 million from continuing operations for the year ending 31 March 2018
• Underlying EPS growth of 21.9%
• Revenue from continuing operations of $1.44 billion, up 14.7% on the $1.27 billion recorded the previous year
• Statutory NPAT of $51.8 million, adversely impacted by non-cash impairments of $63 million
• Yearly dividend of 17c per share, representing a payout of 60% of underlying NPAT

 

[peter2]

Another pull-back opportunity in a stock that recently reported good news. The highlights are in the prior post. I like the chart because it shows a symmetrical abc correction that looks to have ended in the right place. If I'm right with my timing then the next swing should be an impulsive one higher to $9.

Exploration activity is high and they mostly get their assays done at ALS laboratories.

 

[peter2]

As it turned out my timing was wrong. The market experienced a strong selloff Sept18 - Dec18.
ALQ fell down to a prior low ($6.50) that may act as support.

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread.

Setup: Bouncing off support and I've pre-empted a BO-NH
Grade B as there's no HL and the market may test the last low
Buy limit: 7.25, iSL 6.6, initial target 9.00

 

[peter2]

The price movement on ALQ has me beaten. I've bought off support that turned out OK, got burn't by the failed BO in May19. Considered, but passed on another buy off support opportunity, now this latest unexplained price action. There's been huge volume traded in the past month. As far as I know the lab business is going well. I'm a spectator not a speculator on ALQ.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

https://www.afr.com/companies/minin...lab-70b-dilemma-of-fake-tests-20200417-p54krf

This seems like the kind of story @Dona Ferentes might like.

"Laboratories in Newcastle, Emerald, Mackay and Gladstone are named [by ALS], leaving big question marks over the quality of an enormous amount of Australian black coal, exported and consumed domestically, going back to the Howard era,"

These guys are literally this scene


ALQ trading up nearly 4% on this?????

 

[Dona Ferentes]

https://www.afr.com/companies/minin...lab-70b-dilemma-of-fake-tests-20200417-p54krf

ALQ trading up nearly 4% on this?????

clickbait

ALS told the sharemarket it had finished an internal investigation, by McGrathNicol, into coal certification. A whopping 45 per cent to 50 per cent of certificates since 2007 had been "manually amended without justification". Every single alteration improved the coal's supposed quality. Four people had been suspended and left. One senior manager was fired. The internal investigation was handed to police because of a belief that a serious indictable offence had been committed.

It was a "very serious breach of the ethical standards," Brisbane-based ALS's chief executive Raj Naran said."We report results as measured. In this case, the results were amended without justification, meaning they were amended without any true analytical results

Campbell's was a good biz in a growth market, but that's all 'resources boom/ China story' story. But the moat and lack of growth..... Haven't looked at them for a while

 

[peter2]

This thread has been pretty quiet for a while. I've been reading a lot of reports lately as I select positions for the Spec portfolio. Material exploration companies have been digging and drilling like crazy. When they're not D & D, they're raising capital so they can dig and drill some more. Most of these drilling samples end up at ALQ labs. I read that one company sent over 2500 samples (drill and field samples) to the local ALQ lab. Being a former lab scientist I been wondering how they handle the chain of custody of the samples. The samples must be coded for confidentiality. The drill location and the sequential order as they were drilled must be maintained.

I'd love to see this one day.

My case for ALQ is that their testing numbers should be back above normal levels with all the capital raises and drilling that's going on. Chart wise, price is near yearly highs and I'd be buying the dips.

 

[SyBoo]

As an EX-ALS lab tech, I can say that they are good at tracking samples, every sample gets a bar-code. 2500 samples seems like a lot, but the staff churn through it relatively easily.

Just my Guess; I think SGS and BV have taken market share away from ALS (especially in coal). The competition for the work is tough, discounts are big, margins squeezed. The increase in mineral work should offset any decrease in coal. (I should ban myself from posting in this thread.)