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ALD - Ampol Limited

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results out; Lytton refinery doing very well with monster margins (unlikely to be sustained)

Replacement cost operating profit (a figure most closely watched by the market) surged to $471 million in the six months ended June 30, excluding one-time items, from $187.3 million.
Bottom-line net income, which includes the effect of changing prices for oil and fuel products on the value of inventories, went from $325.5 million to $695.9 million.
In convenience retail, EBIT fell to $127.3 million from $149.4 million. Ampol cited the combined effects of omicron, floods and higher retail fuel prices, which reduced demand and squeezed margins

CEO Matt Halliday said the result, the strongest for a six-month period in the company’s history, “demonstrates the benefits of Ampol’s integrated supply chain”.

Current trading conditions
  • Since the end of the half, global crude and product markets have continued to experience significant levels of volatility, falling in mid-July. The Lytton Refiner Margin eased to US$16.46/bbl for July, driven largely by weak gasoline product cracks, but remains above historical averages. Irrespective, supply/demand fundamentals are largely unchanged with Russian sanctions and variable levels of Chinese refined product exports constraining supply.
  • On the demand side, global inventory levels are low ahead of the traditional inventory build for the northern hemisphere winter. During July, both Convenience Retail and Z Energy experienced a strong recovery in retail fuel margins as refined product costs eased. As a result, Convenience Retail exited July with EBIT in line with the prior year, on a year to date basis.
  • The recent easing in refined product costs is also expected to release working capital and improve operating cashflow in the second half.
 
Results for ALD EOFY 12/22 released this am (20/2/23).....
The "Knee-Jerk Mob" bumped the SP up to $33.20 at one point......
IMO it's going to take a day or 3 to flush out the Balance Sheet Gremlins - Then we can make an educated calculation on just where their Intrinsic Value is....
ALD's IV as at 25/2/22 was $26.32 to $28.52, so todays $33.20 is a bit rich IMO.
I would suggest caution.
 
Looks like I got ALD wrong yesterday when I said $33.20 was a bit rich.....
Just completed my FA for ALD......
And to my surprise ALD's IV is currently $35.74 to $40.13....
My ideal Entry Price is now $27.18, and I would expect a TP of approx $43.00......

Ahh well "ya win some & ya Loose some"....

not going to post my spreadsheets anymore, unless anyone asks to see them - everybody knows how in depth my calculations are.....
Looks as though the Gremlins I was expecting to find are still in ALD loft, so to speak.....
Maybee the "Proverbial will hit the Fan" sometime during the next 12 mths.....

I don't often admit that I "got something wrong", guess there is a First for everything.....
Maybee I got it wrong yesterday, but I'm still gunna spend the next 12 mths flushing out those damm Gremlins......
DrB.
 
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A few posters convinced me to keep posting my analysis spreadsheets.....
Here are my ALD IV Calculations......
The Following Data Input - ......


Produces the following results....


Cheers.....
DrB....
 
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Interim and final dividend payouts for ALD were both ,whoppers.
Woke this bone-lazy investor out of his stupor. ( Still thinking of this dull thing as Caltex )
Anyway , latest quarterly results are out : second highest cash flow in its history , despite Lytton refinery . It's the side valve thing , this time apparently . Repairs are on track , praise the lord. Not much else to report.
 
4/5/23 @ 2.15pm – ALD @ $29.00 looks Interesting…..

A Failed Triangle, along with too many Sellers in the past 5 weeks, and Lower Highs and Lower Lows since 2/3/23, all combined in producing the current ST Downtrend for ALD… So my previous call when ALD was abt $33.00 were correct....

The Chart below has a few other clues that are influencing ALD atm, like a Tweezer Top (page 13), and a Current GAP Down PLUS an Old Gap Down (pages 203 to 212), and a Bearish Engulfing (page 7), and the fact that the sellers 5 week long push down from late March 23 to yesterday, maybe came to an end (probably shorters), plus a few other minor TA signals as well….

Anyhow, here’s the Chart…..


However….

Today’s Candle (so far) is a Bullish Piercing (see the DrB TA Help for Beginners Forum for an explanation), also note the CCI & MFI Tandem Indicators….

Personally I need to see a Confirming TA Signal B4 Entering ALD, Maybe tomorrows Candle will be what I need to see, or maybe it will be my CCI & MFI continuing Upwards, or maybe other Indicators will divulge their individual slant of what happens next to ALD….

Remember This Type of TA Suits My Needs – SO DYOR….

Cheers…

DrB.
 
Not bad Half year results out today .Well worth a read.
Quite remarkable in fact. Sent the S.P up $ 1.30 , today .
That old fossil , Lytton is pulling in the cash again after a good belting with a 4 pound hammer on the Cracker's dodgy slide valve. Refining margin ( $ US ) of $ 5 for the first half , is over $ 12 in June. More big divs a comin' ?
 
dyna said:
That old fossil , Lytton is pulling in the cash again after a good belting with a 4 pound hammer on the Cracker's dodgy slide valve. Refining margin ( $ US ) of $ 5 for the first half , is over $ 12 in June.
Click to expand...
Fossil with a gov't guarantee.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
results out; Lytton refinery doing very well with monster margins (unlikely to be sustained)
Click to expand...
And sustained they were not... (funny about that) (what; refinery biz was not a 'cracker'?)
.
An unexpected breakdown at Ampol’s only oil refinery drove a 26 per cent drop in first-half core profit, but chief executive Matt Halliday said the result was “strong”, and reliance of domestic fuel supplies is reducing.
  • net operating profit excluding one-offs slid to $329.6 million in the six months to June 30, from $444.7 million a year earlier.
  • Statutory profit slumped 88 per cent to $79.1 million, driven by a loss on stockpile values.
  • Dividend down to 95¢ per share, from $1.20 a year ago, with the payout ratio being towards the top of range.
Earnings at the refining unit, the Lytton refinery in Brisbane, dived 77 per cent to $100.3 million in the first half, contributing to a 47 per cent slide in earnings before interest and tax in the fuels and infrastructure business, to $303.9 million

Ampol pointed to positive elements early in this second half, with higher-than average refining margins in July and a “promising” start to August.

While fuel margins for convenience retailing softened in July, these should “normalise” as prices stabilise and Ampol said it expected “continued strong shop performance” in the current economic environment.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
An unexpected breakdown at Ampol’s only oil refinery
Click to expand...
Not again ! Jeebus.
Those night-shift fitters have been playing cards again. C.F. M . E. U. members , see...... Don't give a rats.
Gonna need a bigger hammer , then.

S.P. doing well , though . Up 5 % last week . $ 33.79 close , yesterday.
 
AMWU I think that should be. Goody -two -shoes compared to my old union , the ratbags of the age . Wanna 200 grand a year job ? Standing around holding a lollipop ? Where's ya ticket ? ( Star casino hanging on for dear life at 99 cents ! )


Back on topic : Black Rock held 6.15 % of ALD beginning of the year . Six months of steadily buying 17 + million shares , now gives them exactly 1 % more. Reported to market , today.
 
I stopped at Pheasants Nest recently, and it is a big investment ..... the Ampol redevelopment has created a mini city with multiple food outlets, battery charging, segregated truck and vehicle service areas. Northbound, an hour before Sydney outskirts, seems much a larger footprint than Southbound.
 
Did you pluck any pheasants whilst there?
If not, I nominate you as an honorary pheasant plucker anyway.

"multiple food outlets" hmmmm, food? Really?
You call that food?
 
frugal.rock said:
Did you pluck any pheasants whilst there?
If not, I nominate you as an honorary pheasant plucker anyway.

"multiple food outlets" hmmmm, food? Really?
Click to expand...
thanks for the correction, yep, all franchises, reheated microwave muck. all the players we've come to know and avoid.

... just used the bathrooms. fuel way cheaper down the road!
 
Ampol says its full-year unaudited replacement cost operating profit will be slightly ahead of its record in 2022, with growth in earnings from non-refining divisions “offset a reduction in refinery earnings from the historically high levels in the prior year”.

Updating the refiner margin at its Lytton oil refinery in Queensland for Q4, refinery volumes totalled 1428 million litres compared with 1580 million litres in the prior corresponding period.

The reduction in volume in the quarter was “largely reflective of an unplanned outage towards the end of December with the refinery now returned to normal operations”.

Ampol booked its Lytton refiner margin at $US10.52 per barrel in the quarter, tracking a rise in landed crude premiums and product crack
 
super premium

ANOTHER YEAR OF STRONG FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Key points
• Full year 2023 Group Replacement Cost Operating Profit Earnings Before Interest and Tax of $1,296.6 million
• Result underpinned by earnings growth in non-refining divisions and full 12 months’ contribution from Z Energy
• Z Energy delivered expected acquisition benefits and synergies
• Record total sales volumes of 28.4 billion litres, up 17 per cent compared to 2022
• Statutory Net Profit After Tax (Attributable to Parent) of $549.1 million
• Strong balance sheet with leverage at the end of 2023 of 1.6 times
• Final ordinary dividend declared of 120 cents per share, fully franked. Full year ordinary dividends of 215 cents per share, fully franked, at the top of the payout range for the full year
• Additional special dividend declared of 60 cents per share fully franked, taking total dividends to 275 cents per share, fully franked, a total of $655 million declared for 2023, or 89 per cent of RCOP NPAT

 
dyna said:
Holey moley , biggest div payout ever. $ 1.80 .
ALD shares looked cheap at $ 30 .( Not now , though )
The non - refining side of the business was quite the surprise , I thought.
What's that ? Sugar and junk food ?
Click to expand...
The prices are pretty much the same as the supermarkets these days so just buy at the service station if you want some energy drinks or sandwiches on the run.
 
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