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ALD - Ampol Limited

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Refinery is a low margin business and high capital requirement I don't think it is a good idea to buy such a business when you face much better and cheaper players from Asia.

I don't have ctx business model like this will get hammer big time in bad times with a little room for error
 
an update on caltex - reported revenue up 3% with a "this is the bottom for us" statement from Segal, and a reinstatement of dividends (30c).
It is good that the cash comes back to the shareholders, but a bit disappointing that there weren't any new plans to expand and use the cash to enhance the business - conservative move I guess, but considering the low margins on refining in Australia and lack of any upcoming excitement in this company, will they just go on producing and taking whatever prices they can get?

It seems a very dreary company to me, something for the buy and hold investors with plenty of downside....! Why not just buy product from the Asian refineries and shut down Australian ones and focus on the retailing side of the business which they are making money on?
 
CALTEX (CTX) -22.10.10 :

The price is testing the white line which acts as a resistance line, this line is also part of a symmetrical triangle.
if this line broken up successfully we would anticipate further upward movement and target cloud be up to red line (more than 20 $)
 

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CALTEX (CTX) -08.01.11 :

As it was posted on 22.10.10 when price was around $12. (above) . price passed up the resistance line (upper line of the symmetrical triangle and upper line of the downtrend channel. now the price testing $15(%25 above $12) . the targets of triangle and upper line of the downtrend channel are above $20



but is short term we might have divergence between price , RSI and Momentum and a correction. (the green line and EMA 20 will be the resistance levels)

 
CTX- 3 Feb 2011:

as it was predicted the divergence between price and RSI and CCI caused halt in price rising and we saw the correction. in short time view there is a possibility we have a Bullish Head and Shoulders. but we must wait for forming the right shoulder and then breaking the neck line with strong volume, then the target would be around 15.40

View attachment 41168

in longer term after successful break up the triangle and channel we now have important fibo 32.8 around 14.60 , the next resistance will be fibo 50 % around 17.15 . but the final target would be the highest price around $28.

View attachment 41169
 
CTX-10.02.11

As it was predicted above, CTX could form the Left Shoulder , if the neckline will passed up successfully the target of this Head and Shoulder pattern would be around $ 15.40

 
CTX-17.02.11

As it was predicted above, CTX forms Head and Shoulders pattern, Today the neckline breaks up with increased volume. the target of this Head and Shoulder pattern would be around $ 15.50



in longer term view the downtrend channel is broken with target above $20



also there is a Andrew Pitch Fork and the price after passing of the middle line will have the upper line as s resistance line.

 

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CTX - 21.02.11

as predicted in previous posts after forming the right shoulder, the neckline passed up and the price reached 15.33 . the target of the pattern was predicted around 15.50



but the price around 15.50 has middle line of Andrew Pitchfork as a serious resistance line. maybe it can not break this line at once. but when it will, we might see price increase to the upper line of the pitch fork.
 
CTX - 17-06-2011

CTX is located in a very important situation, it has the green (upper line of the channel) and red support lines. the target for channel and shown head$shoulders have the same target and the recent drop would be considered a pullback for H&S in weekly chart.


also the shown Andrew pitch fork shows the support line for the price. Price couldn't pass the middle line of the fork.



in Linear chart we have the Head and shoulders with target around $11.00 (which we are near to this target) at this target price would touch the valid and important support line (which has formed the lower line of the channel)



around 11.00$ (or even the current price) we have strong supports , if these supports cant hold the price , more severe short should be anticipated .
 


Looking for $12, waiting to see a report about their difficult refiner margins or something similar although latest news about refinery changes potentially a change for the better...
 
another big company that's been largely ignored by share Fora.
After a strong move in May, it dropped back into EOFY before giving me another strong Buy signal. That move has swung up hitting the Fibonacci target square on; now we're already short again, aiming for the 100% level, if not lower: See the gap???



But "Safety first": I'll stop out of the Short if it runs above $14.70.
 

These guys have a seriously profitable business when the volatile refining business is stripped out, and it's been growing at ~20%/year for the last 5 yers. They have basically said they want to get out of refining or drastically scale it back and rely more on imports from the Asian super refineries. If that all goes to plan then they should be about ~$20/share.
 

McLovin do you still hold?

What an absolutely stellar run these guys have had! You hit the nail on the head with this one - imports seem to be helping them a lot.

I guess there are 2 main questions:

1 - Can they continue the growth and the shares power along?
2 - Will a downturn in the AUD affect their importing?
 
JTLP said:
1 - Can they continue the growth and the shares power along?
Click to expand...

Can they continue the growth at above average rates, yes. I wouldn't be buying now, though.

JTLP said:
2 - Will a downturn in the AUD affect their importing?
Click to expand...

When CTX refines they basically are affected by the margin on the cost of refining here v the cost of refining and shipping to here. By switching to import terminals they remove the volatility of having to compete with Asian refineries and essentially just "clip the ticket" on refined oil passing through their terminals. If the AUD continues to affect the import business it will be at a significantly reduced level, and the marketing segment should be relatively unaffected by AUD changes given the demand inelasticity of fuel.
 

For those of you who follow Camden on the other forum he's pretty much formed the same opinion I had way back in early 2012 (pardon the hubris) and has done a pretty lengthy post, well worth the read. The transformation remains on track. I still hold. Bought in at ~$12.
 
McLovin said:
For those of you who follow Camden on the other forum he's pretty much formed the same opinion I have and has done a pretty lengthy post, well worth the read. The transformation remains on track. I still hold. Bought back at ~$10.
Click to expand...
I did read that actually. Fantastic analysis as usual. I've also been buying on any weakness, slowly trying to build a position. I've always had CTX in the back of my mind, but for some reason thought it was expensive on the way up from high single figures (to almost double that now). In the end I paid a fair bit for increased clarity, but on the same hand I certainly don't think it's overly expensive at the moment.
 
I saw Camden's post re 2015 forecasts today for CTX post-Kurnell for EBIT about $725m which is around consensus. I had around $700 EBIT with potential growth at around 5% per annum (which may or may not be a bit conservative considering the phenomenal growth their distribution / marketing segment has achieved in the last 5 years).

On my calcs - EV is around $5.8b, plus say account for an additional $500m for the conversion.

On an EV of $6.3b a post-conversion EBIT of $700m means a multiple of only about 9 times on current market prices. That is fairly cheap for a company that has considerable market share and sustainable competitive advantages from their infrastructure in NSW and national network alliances and branding (having Chevron dominant on the shareholder register never hurts either).

It's a pity I didn't listen to you a little bit earlier on this one McLovin, but the numbers didn't make sense to me at the time.
 
Ves said:
It's a pity I didn't listen to you a little bit earlier on this one McLovin, but the numbers didn't make sense to me at the time.
Click to expand...

That's alright! I'd rather you understand for yourself than take my word for it. I was pretty vague about it anyway, as I usually am. Around the time I got interested CTX was only discussing the idea as an option. What convinced me that it was all but inevitable was when you looked at the competitive landscape in Asia. A super refinery in Asia (Singapore is especially relevant to Australia) has the same capacity as all the refineries in Australia. That gives those guys massive economies of scale. Until recently, Australia's enviromental controls meant that sourcing fuels from Asia was a "specialty" product for those refineries, however so much of Asia has now moved to Euro III and higher that Australian grade (iirc we are on Euro III too) is now mainstream. When you take into account that, and that the underlying business was being discounted because of the refining volatility and that there was no loss of CTX's competitive position by switching to an import terminal, it just seemed to make perfect sense.
 
Updated 2013 full year results outlook looked pretty solid to me.

My main interest is the long-term performance of the marketing business. 4% EBIT growth forecast for the full year (which includes a $10m adverse impact of supply interruption in Sydney).

Refining will be bumpy until Kernel finally shuts down. And may provide opportunities for further entries. I picked some more up in the $17.40s on Monday.

Brokers were predicting no growth in marketing business last week from memory. Probably why it bounced today.
 
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