AKE - Allkem Limited

[Miner]

Miner, my thoughts, pull back from overhead falling resistance line coming from January 2009, which is also the 200dsma, double whammy. This fall is reflected in the major US Global lithium ETF which has been falling in concert with the recent falls on Wall Street. Gotta watch those falling overheads, they will get you every time! (mostly )

...and the inevitable chart

View attachment 92777

Briefly read quarterly report published today.
Some good points specially record production. But market will also see the margin, demand forecast, cost and what goes to kitty.
Yesterday price was already factored for a better result today. But is it a better one per market expectations?
I have started reading charts and honestly engineering and MBA were easier. May be decreased learning capacity with age . So @tech/a , @Ann , @So_Cynical , @peter2, @barney and other gurus would your chart show falling knife today after market opens ?
Hope not as I am a holder as well.
Have a safe and profitable day .

 

[tech/a]

Hi Miner

The chart itself is pretty ho hum.
Nothing of real interest. Cant say
that I see any factoring in of good
financials as price and volume have
both been stable for months.

Often it takes news which surprises participants to ignite a stock.
Currently trading around its lowest levels over the last 3 years its
a stock that the Duck would not hold--but you may like the stability
dividends etc.

So my bet --more of the same.

 

[Ann]

Descending Triangle somewhat bearish considered a continuation pattern. Let see what happens..

 

[Miner]

Descending Triangle somewhat bearish considered a continuation pattern. Let see what happens..

View attachment 93873

Surprisingly ORE opened with a 3.35% rise as I write. Don't understand it but not complaining either

 

[Ann]

Surprisingly ORE opened with a 3.35% rise as I write. Don't understand it but not complaining either

Not surprising Miner. It had a good rise yesterday from a recent fall of five days (see dark candles) and it may see further rises trying to test the falling overhead resistance line of around $3.85.

It would be trying to break above that falling resistance line. It may succeed or it may fall back and continue to travel sideways back and forth between the bottom $3 support line until it moves beyond the downward pressure of the falling resistance. It would make for a stronger future rise if it did hold onto the bottom support line of $3 and move sideways for a while.

A closer view with an extended chart pattern....

 

[barney]

Surprisingly ORE opened with a 3.35% rise as I write.

Hi Miner ….. Some chart musings below ……….. At the moment price is in limbo/equilibrium/tight range …

Basically, what @tech/a said above with pictures

Fundamentally …. They are a Producer so are ahead of the pack in many ways.

Lithium price has been soft in China so their profits were affected last Quarter.

In the short term the Chart says exactly what the Fundamentals say … ie. Nothing much happening until something happens

In the longer term, my view is producing L stocks with good management will do pretty well …

Sometimes you just need to buy a bigger bag of popcorn and sit it out

 

[Miner]

Hi Miner ….. Some chart musings below ……….. At the moment price is in limbo/equilibrium/tight range …

Basically, what @tech/a said above with pictures

Fundamentally …. They are a Producer so are ahead of the pack in many ways.

Lithium price has been soft in China so their profits were affected last Quarter.

In the short term the Chart says exactly what the Fundamentals say … ie. Nothing much happening until something happens

In the longer term, my view is producing L stocks with good management will do pretty well …

Sometimes you just need to buy a bigger bag of popcorn and sit it out

View attachment 93886

@barney I never knew with stocks you also write lyrics and poems to sing a song

 

[barney]

@barney I never knew with stocks you also write lyrics and poems to sing a song

Lol .... Well I have been a Muso for just on 50 years … Goes with the territory

 

[Miner]

Lol .... Well I have been a Muso for just on 50 years … Goes with the territory

Lol.
So I picked the muso trait correctly

 

[barney]

Lol.
So I picked the muso trait correctly

Indeed!! …… Hum me a few bars and I'll cut a riff for you

 

[Iggy_Pop]

Orocobre Limited (ORE) is a mineral exploration company focused on the construction and operation of its portfolio of lithium, potash and boron projects and facilities in the Puna region of northern Argentina. Currently, ORE's flagship project is Olaroz Project.
From the 2019 annual report -
FY19 production of 12,605 tonnes, FY20 production expected to be approximately 5% higher than FY19
• Olaroz Stage 2 Expansion finance is now complete, construction of ponds is well advanced, finalising process engineering
• 10,000 tpa Naraha Lithium Hydroxide Plant has commenced construction Operational improvement program clearly defined and currently being implemented Lithium chemical prices are lower than previous periods but long term fundamentals remain intact.

One of my picks for 2020

Iggy

 

[fergee]

One of my picks for 2020

Iggy

I was just reading the short report posted by @frugal.rock (see link below) that ORE has dropped from being 13% of total shares short on 31/12/19 to 10% short on 03/01/20. herehttps://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/did-you-know-useful-tidbits.35120/#post-1051320

Looks like the beginning a short cover rally or possibly a change in sentiment and a rerating.

 

[fergee]

Charts look interesting...

#1 The Monthly I can see a touch of a 10+ year support line then a break of the recent down trend. The RSI seems to have hit the lower bound from previous corrections and turned up again.

#2 The weekly a nice double bottom formation looks to have set up confirmed by the RSI positive divergence from 2018-2019.

#3 The daily seems to show a range with a break out level of $2.85 and a bit of a 1,2,3 set up ala @peter2 . A close above this on the daily and then weekly would be strong confirmation the range was broken and a move up to T1 to close the gap at $3.48. This is also the 0.236 fib retrace level of the down move from the all time high.

This is just my I thought it looked like interesting set up right here. I would be keen to hear other peoples thoughts on the chart and the fundamental outlook for ORE

 

[fergee]

The Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) which holds ORE as 1.8% of its fund has broken out in a similar fashion. The break out coincided with the increase in oil prices over the last few months which makes logical sense as battery tech is the substitution to fossil fuels. If this tension with Iran is to continue oil and Lithium may both be great plays.

This is a good proxy for the battery industry imo although not perfect as its not just lithium stocks I still think it is a good indication of industry sentiment as a whole.

I have attached a chart with a comp between TSLA and LIT as I noticed they like to follow each other round the playground although its rather subjective who's running away and who's chasing as they seem to take turns over time but right now I think TSLA is trying to get away ....fast

 

[peter2]

LIT ETF broke out much earlier and in fact preceded the price rises on all the main ASX Li stocks (PLS, ORE, GXY). I noted the rise of LIT at the right time and also noted that the ASX lithium were not responding appropriately. They have risen a little since then as you've also noted.

I can't trade the ASX Li stocks because they've been beaten down for too long. ORE is right at a resistance level (2.85) as you've noted on your charts. There will be short term opportunities but I'd rather wait until ORE gets above 3.00 before looking for my weekly setup.

 

[fergee]

ORE has almost closed the gap around $3.48, which is near the 0.236 fib re-trace level. It looks like a good time to take some profits off the table and increase the stop loss right now to de-risk the trade a bit imo.

 

[peter2]

Nicely done @fergee . You brought this to our attention at the right time, when price was at a resistance level.

 

[Trav.]

ORE had a nice run yesterday and some resistance at $2.50 to contend with now, so if it can break and hold that then $2.64 is next level.

Good one to watch as it has plenty of upside

 

[Dona Ferentes]

ORE had a nice run yesterday and some resistance at $2.50 to contend with now, so if it can break and hold that then $2.64 is next level.

Good one to watch as it has plenty of upside

✓ yep, noticed lithium stocks awaking from their slumber. A little bit

 

[Trav.]

ORE had a nice run yesterday and some resistance at $2.50 to contend with now, so if it can break and hold that then $2.64 is next level.

Don't worry about the $2.50 resistance, ORE blew past that today and Closed @ 2.60 ( +4.84% )