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AKE - Allkem Limited

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Orocobre Lithium

Hi,

Does anyone here follow Orocobre?

They have a lithium project in Argentina, in Which Orocobre owns 66.5%, Toyota Tusho owns 25%, and A local Argentinian government owns 8.5%. My concern is that Toyota Tusho is part of the Toyota motor group and their reason for involvement in this lithium project is to secure a supply of Lithium for themselves.

What if they buy all the lithium from Orocobre but at below market lithium rates so they get cheap lithium? This would mean less profits for Orocobre right? Is there a conflict of interest here? Or have I misunderstood the structure?

This is what I am looking at... http://orocobre.com.au/PDF/ASX_17Oc...h Toyota Tsusho for Development of Olaroz.pdf

Would be good to have someone's input who knows more about investing than me.

On page 1 it says "with TTC’s conditional 25% participation". What if the condition is that at a later stage TTC's share in the project rises and Orocobre's decreases, in which case TTC would have more power over sales and prices of lithium.

Thanks in advance
 
Also can Toyota Tusho force Orocobre to sell the lithium at a certain price? Does it have the power and legal right to do so? or is lithium sold only at set market prices?

Would I be able to find a detailed document on the ins and outs of the agreement with a securities commission that must be filed by the companies? If so where? I would love to read more detailed version of the terms of agreement between Orocobre and Toyota Tusho

Please help
 
Has anybody taken a trade in ORE since the last mention?
No, I missed it as well, until it popped out of my daily Trinity Scan today.



Last time it showed some "W"arning signs, suggesting a possible bottom reversal, I dismissed the signals because of unconvincing volume. Have to draw the line somewhere; too bad I didn't break the rule in June
This time, volume is quite a bit better. Will the price perform the same way?
If it retraces tomorrow, I'll try for an entry as close to $2.60 as possible; then add on break above $2.75, with a $3 first target. Trailing Stop will depend on if and when I can get an entry away.
 
That Feb 16 setup got us into a good trade that topped out at 5.00.

I've started a new one in the ASX Momentum thread. This daily setup looks good but it looks better in the weekly chart. There's no doubt it's a reversal setup and I'm always cautious about trading reversals in a rising market.

The weekly chart of GXY looks like a classic EW 5-3-5 abc corrective pattern may have just ended. It's ended between the 50-61.8% pull-back zone and the target would be the old highs near 5.00.

I'm no EW expert, but the basic knowledge is enough to aid in the understanding of corrective swings. Impulsive moves start when the corrective move ends. The aim is to get into the impulsive moves when they start.

 
Interesting chart.

Agree with the wave count but adding to the bullish case for me are the time cycles.
There is a cluster all around the same date. The 3 projections do span 1 month but remember we are looking at the weekly chart so it's acceptable. Wave equality projection $6.34. Important the recent low at $2.62 isn't breached as it will weaken the wave count.
 
That popped up in a EW setup scan a few weeks ago. A TS3 is a Trade Setup 3 which is an ABC correction with a software calculated entry, stop and a min target. (The $ figures in there are based on a $20000 account with $1000 at risk)
In the recent market a lot of these are not making their targets or are taking a long time to get there, a few years ago it was different.

Weekly chart
 

Feels like a significant move and a pretty solid finish today. Although ORE is pretty volatile and can have big gaps on news without warning. It is THE most shorted stock on the ASX (@20.34%) though so that's probably to the benefits of the longs... I always get the feeling that the last 5-6% of shorters (above 14-15% shorts outstanding) are late to the party and are probably going to be wrong.

http://www.shortman.com.au/
 
ORE is having another attempt at the break-out level slightly above 3.00. If demand can frighten the large short position (~20%) the price could move higher very quickly as the shorters are forced to buy and cover.

It's an interesting battle. I'd put this trade in the daily momentum portfolio only it's fully invested atm.
 
I've heard on the radio that Google is interested in Orocobre. Perhaps they want to support Orocobre with new robots. It is not yet sure what the reason is.
 
Another basing liftoff scenario in the last few days. Selloff today with tomorrow revealing more regarding a run higher. or not. The Google rumour is bull dung.
 
ORE had an overcrowded short participation which has had a bit of an unwind over the last week or so!
When shorts are hard to get, you don't want them!! This is a good example of that.
 
Had some interest in Orocobre for years now but was content with PLS lithium investment. Seems the LIT ETF is a benchmark and the lithium stocks have come off the boil so to speak. More to the point maybe the larger lithium stocks pulled the run down. After mentioning the pitfalls of buying on the otherside of an up trend broken, I find myself looking at exactly that again. Finding the resumption of an up trend is not an easy play. Maybe it has further to decline. 5 ish was a place of interest but awhile away yet, if ever.
 
Looks like Orocobre Limited found bottom at around $3.50 in early September. Since then its share price has risen to $4.68, where it closed today at its high for the day, up 11.4% on yesterday's close of $4.20. Today's share price increase has sent ORE confidently through resistance at $4.50.

Some good drilling results from the Cauchari JV boosted the share price on 19 September.

The company announced yesterday that Mr Martin Perez de Solay has been appointed as the new Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director after an extensive global search by recruitment specialist Egon Zehnder. Martin will commence in these roles following the upcoming Annual General Meeting and a transition period with the current Managing Director and CEO.

The market seemed to like the announcement. Things seem to be going well for ORE at the moment. It all feels very positive.

 
Ore posted a report last night after market closed. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190307/pdf/4439h18gmk8zgn.pdf
On prima facie it was IMO an encouraging report. But market reacted or behaved, to depress the price today significantly.
Could any one following this stock/thread suggest what could be the reasons or the report was not really a good one even I looked it as positive?
Disclaimer - holding
 
Miner, my thoughts, pull back from overhead falling resistance line coming from January 2009, which is also the 200dsma, double whammy. This fall is reflected in the major US Global lithium ETF which has been falling in concert with the recent falls on Wall Street. Gotta watch those falling overheads, they will get you every time! (mostly )

...and the inevitable chart

 
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