AIM - AIM Resources

[powerkoala]

from my view, sp got a lot "unseen" resistance in 25c area. once this breaks, it will be back to previous high no doubt due to zinc price back to its high.
good luck to all holders.
cheers.

 

[adobee]

Lots of interest in AIM this morning up 10% and about 8 million shares traded so far... share price around 29c which I think has push through some resistance and now expect the next barrier to be around 32c..
I am expecting a forth coming annoucment due to the action and the history of action prior to annoucements.. (not huge buying yet but if it gets up to 30Million + I will be buying some more)..

 

[elgaes]

AIM is going down like a fast sinking boat and steering by a bunch of idiots at the helm. Look like they have no interest in protecting share value for share holders. bombarding the market with fund raising after fund raising, while no progress have been made with the mine development. More free shares for the directors without meeting any perform hurdles! The question is why they need so much money and what have they done with the money from the last fund raisings? as far as I can see the current mine development project is no more than just a sh.. hole in the ground. Have they paid more focus on using those money from the previous placements to accelerate the mine development and stop all other distracting activity, by now the mine would have been in operation and soon generate enough cash flow to fund more other exploration activities hence protecting share values. The management board is selling the value of the company for cheap at the moment!! my recommendation ..............to replace the current bunch and until any substantial progress have been made regarding the current mine development.

 

[sagem]

AIM RESOURCES FAR TO CHEAP

Whatever the situation is with North Sound and AIM management does not alter the fact that the PERKOA ZINC MINE is still in the ground and we still have all that very high grade Zinc which valued the share price MUCH HIGHER some month's ago and it was tipped to go A HELL OF A LOT HIGHER STILL
The shares are now far to cheap ....its not as though the company is going bust or gone, this is a bargain price and I am sure we will see some big buying going on in the new year THIS COULD BE AN EVEN BIGGER INVESTMENT THAN BEFORE. Does anybody hold the same view as me. U.K INVESTOR

 

[yawomanjas]

Re: AIM RESOURCES FAR TO CHEAP

Whatever the situation is with North Sound and AIM management does not alter the fact that the PERKOA ZINC MINE is still in the ground and we still have all that very high grade Zinc which valued the share price MUCH HIGHER some month's ago and it was tipped to go A HELL OF A LOT HIGHER STILL
The shares are now far to cheap ....its not as though the company is going bust or gone, this is a bargain price and I am sure we will see some big buying going on in the new year THIS COULD BE AN EVEN BIGGER INVESTMENT THAN BEFORE. Does anybody hold the same view as me. U.K INVESTOR

I am a BIG AIM fan but unfortunately, due to the current climate, zinc price falling and bloody cap raising has hurt this stock.....I truly believe aim is not a spec stock...it does have the mine....I really believe AIM is a 08/09 story and we just have to be patient...

I reckon North Sound are checking b/c they are probably peeved off at the current share price...

if u have a look at the zince price chart for the last 6 months and that of AIMs, they look virtually identical...note other zince stocks have fallen badly of late...i.e ZFX, PEM

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi guys,

I've taken a position in AIM today becuase I think its oversold and at a floor

The company has $80m in cash = 8c a share roughly in cash alone

Based on this and the fact that the 10c level seems like a floor I'd say the stock is ready for a re-bound much like MEO when it got oversold

On the plus side its Perkoa Zinc project is very advanced and should be near production towards later this year, making AIM one of the few companies like JML to actually get its base metal project into production

Based on some old reports the company's Perkoa project was valued at an NPV of $165m using a Zinc price of 90c/lb

 

[Gekko]

Hi guys,

I've taken a position in AIM today becuase I think its oversold and at a floor

The company has $80m in cash = 8c a share roughly in cash alone

Based on this and the fact that the 10c level seems like a floor I'd say the stock is ready for a re-bound much like MEO when it got oversold

On the plus side its Perkoa Zinc project is very advanced and should be near production towards later this year, making AIM one of the few companies like JML to actually get its base metal project into production

Based on some old reports the company's Perkoa project was valued at an NPV of $165m using a Zinc price of 90c/lb

YT, it looks good. Chart looks like a bottom. What do you think of the zinc price. Has it too bottomed? I noticed zfx and pem were up strongly?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi Gekko,

Umm thats a tough question and probably more suited to the Zinc price thread discussion,

But the company has shown in a study that based on a US 90c/lb Zinc Price the project has an NPV of $150m or so = 14c
I think the project is so resilant to weaker Zinc prices because of its higher grade ie 14.5% Zinc

 

[Gekko]

Hi Gekko,

Umm thats a tough question and probably more suited to the Zinc price thread discussion,

But the company has shown in a study that based on a US 90c/lb Zinc Price the project has an NPV of $150m or so = 14c
I think the project is so resilant to weaker Zinc prices because of its higher grade ie 14.5% Zinc

Hey YT, nah wasn't after a detailed analysis on Zinc and its pricing just curious about your thoughts on Zinc price as it obviously has a major influence on AIM one could even assume the downward spiral in the shares is corelated to the downward spiral in the zinc price.

I personally think Zinc may have bottomed as evidenced by the rumours that oxiana is making an offer for zinifex. Maybe Hegardy thinks zinc has bottomed too.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Mate like I said not sure whether Zinc price has bottomed, maybe, I would have thought $1 seemed like a floor on the Zinc price,

But you didn't read my reply, I said that the company has shown in studies and older broker reports that based on a US 90c/lb Zinc Price the project has an NPV of $150m or so = 14c

Also I haven't heard anything about OXR approaching ZFX, but more relevant is the fact that HER got taken over,

Do some research on HER, you'll see its a very similar company to AIM and currently there is a takeover battle ensuing on HER

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

AIM​

Mkt Structure

Shares
1070m
130m 10c options
160m 40c unlisted options


Mkt Cap @10c = $107m Current Undilluted

@ 10c = $120m fully dilluted with $95m cash



Cash
$80m note + $13m if options are exercised


Projects


Perkoa Zinc, 90% note Govt has other 10%, Burkina Faso Africa
JORC 6.3Mt's@ 14.5% Zinc = 900kt's Zn

Offtake agreements with Xstrata, in the final stages of completing their Gold Project, they expect production later this year.

This project is very very important to the Burkina Faso people as it would be their largest

TAKEOVER POTENTIAL
A comparison to HER is very interesting

HER 200m shares Cash $50m 80% Interest in JORC 6.5Mt's@ 11% Zn + 6% Pb = 17%-18% Zinc Equiv

Now HER's Dairi project was also at an advanced stage ie nearing production when a predator pounced and made a $2.25 cash take over offer ( $450m) for HER since then the Govt partner that held 20% in the Dairi project has uped the bid to $2.50 cash offer ($500m)

Now AIM's basics are 1100m shares and the JORC is 6.3Mt's@14.5% Zinc, not as high as HER's given Dairi's Lead content but comparable nevertheless, now AIM's partner is also the local Govt and they have made it clear that in order to improve the economic poverty in Burkina Faso the Govt is encouraging all forms of mineral projects,

The Perkoa zinc mine will be the largest mine development undertaken in the country to date and there is a growing level of excitement over its progression. A Mining Code drafted in 2003, which adopted the principals of worlds’ best practice, sets the terms and conditions for the development of mining projects. The Government is currently upgrading the road to the mine site and has constructed the Seboun Dam that will provide water for the project. In addition, a rail line, built eight years ago, passes through Koudougou, within 30km from the mine site.

Now takeover predators pounce just after all the hard work has been done but just before the major rewards are reaped, ie prior to production as with HER, AIM is nearing production so its my guess that if it languishes at these near cash levels a predator will soon emerge to swallow them up and just like HER, I'd expect the Burkina Faso govt (the 10% partner) to step up and up the offer in order to secure its economic future (ie like HER and Dairi)



Summary


- Chart wise 10c seems to a floor
- The company has cash backing of 8c
- Given the technical picture and the cash backing I'd expect a rebound like MEO once the last few sellers are done
- Perkoa offers alot of upside, even at much lower Zinc prices it is still profitable due to its high Zinc grades
- HER has shown companies with good resource projects nearing production that are undervalued are ripe for a take over
- The project appears vital to the Burkina Faso Gov't who may like the Indonesian partner of HER up any takeover bid
- A valuation is hard to give, but 8c is the cash backing, technically once 11.5c is cleared we may see a run to 15c-16c, as far as takeover you'd think at least half of what was thrown at HER seems reasonable is $250m = 22c ish


Info on the company http://www.aimresources.com.au

Broker reports http://www.aimresources.com.au/investor/brokerreports/

Project info http://www.aimresources.com.au/projects/

 

[bvbfan]

I've held AIM and HER before and I do think there are similarities.

However AIM I would consider a little further advanced on development. HER are still waiting on forestry approval from Dept of Forestry in Indonesia.

As far as I'm aware AIM doesn't have issues regarding permitting and early construction has already started.

With the coal issues in China forcing a copper smelter to shutdown how long before it flows into zinc too.
I think that if the US can settle (ie not have a major drop) then base metals can stabilize for now.

Zinc I think has further upside.

AIM - Perkoa details
Plant throughput 525,000 tpa Head grade 14.5% Zn Zn recovery 92% Concentrate production 130,000 tpa Concentrate grade 53% Metal production 68,000 tpa Zn

At current prices thats revenue of about $175million AUD. If costs are around 60c a lb then profit of around $80million on a conversative side.
Using 5x cashflow (conservative again) then around 28c isnt unrealistic.

($80mill x 5 / 1.4billion shares)

AIM up about 7% in London now also

 

[yawomanjas]

Like I say..AIM will be a 08/09 story....

Unfortunately some uncertainty prior to end of last year didn't help the cause...

Zinc price falling

Cap raising..then cancelling it...

Market sentiment....

 

[Thadius]

Hi guys,

I've taken a position in AIM today becuase I think its oversold and at a floor

The company has $80m in cash = 8c a share roughly in cash alone

Based on this and the fact that the 10c level seems like a floor I'd say the stock is ready for a re-bound much like MEO when it got oversold

On the plus side its Perkoa Zinc project is very advanced and should be near production towards later this year, making AIM one of the few companies like JML to actually get its base metal project into production

Based on some old reports the company's Perkoa project was valued at an NPV of $165m using a Zinc price of 90c/lb

YT,

Well done for seeing the value in this stock. I have been in this stock since the BFS back in 05, with a position of over 1.4mill options and shares. This position was reduced late 2007 due to the price of zinc declining and my fears on where management were taking this in regards to the final $50MILL OR SO FUNDING REQUIRED TO COMPLETE THE INITIAL CAPITAL INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIRED.

In saying that, I think that North Sound who are a hedge fund have taken matters in their own hands and have demanded to see the books and I think they will try and get a board seat and more managerial influence. I read they did it with another miner who was out of their depth, and they turned them around. I think they will do the same here and may even fund the last $'s needed themselves, if they get more control of management.

The other major plus with AIM is it's JV with BHP at Mumbwa Zambia, which has one hole drill result of 655m with most at average .79% copper. More holes are only now being done so results will come in by March 08. It may confirm a massive IOCG deposit which from their reports suggest Olympic Dam style and size. (I know every company seems to be saying this, but at least we have BHP as JV and they should have som idea)

10c is a great get in price, as it was when I was still buying in 05/06. This is the bottom from TA and FA and I am ready to buy some more once again, but I doubt I would need to wait as long from now to see a good return from here.

 

[Gekko]

YT,

In saying that, I think that North Sound who are a hedge fund have taken matters in their own hands and have demanded to see the books and I think they will try and get a board seat and more managerial influence. I read they did it with another miner who was out of their depth, and they turned them around. I think they will do the same here and may even fund the last $'s needed themselves, if they get more control of management.

Can anyone else see North Sound getting into the books and then taking the company private? They have persisted with their investment for a long time, so their position on the company is clear. They are bulls. Long term bulls. And for many of these hedge funds, this is how they work. They seek control, and they would want nothing more then to run the show.


North Sound Capital are a Greenwich, Conneticut based hedge fund.
https://secure.northsound.com/restricted/page/index

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Thadius,

Yeah your right, I did a check on AIM's other projects and they too look promising

Mumba IOCG, 70% JV with BHP 30%, Zambia Africa
Recent drilling hits 300m's@0.8% Cu + 42m's@2%Cu + 4m's@6% Cu

Further drilling is underway here



Mokopane Nickel/Copper/Platinum Group metals, 74%, South Africa
JORC 40Mt's@0.146% Ni + 0.085% Cu + 0.22g/t Platinum + 0.33g/t Palladium

Good potential to expand the resource

Be interesting to see what the Ni or Cu Equiv grades are based on all the credits from all the other metals

I also would like to know what the recovery and processing factors are given the diversity of the deposit

 

[Gekko]

Long term holders, is it percieved as common knowledge that the only reason the hedge are seeking access to the books if for a possible TO offer? What other reason could there be? Willing to listen to all scenarios.

 

[Thadius]

Long term holders, is it percieved as common knowledge that the only reason the hedge are seeking access to the books if for a possible TO offer? What other reason could there be? Willing to listen to all scenarios.

My understanding is that their intentions is not to take it over. They feel management have not been upfront with shareholders in regards to progress.
As the accounts don't provide detail of expenditure they want to see where the money has been spent and I suppose any other info to give them clarification of the real state of play. At the AGM they said that their questions were not answered adequately.

 

[WRONG'UN]

Hi Guys
I've been in and out of AIM at various times over the last three years and since I was last stopped out at 25cents a few months ago have been watching it's (lack of) progress from the sidelines, but with interest.
I have now decided to test the water again.
In mid 2007 I compiled some notes on the Mumbwa copper project, and have updated them several times since, as the copper price, the exchange rate and AIM's share price have fluctuated. My notes are basically an attempt to quantify the size of the potential Mumbwa resource, by pulling together the various known facts, and making a few assumptions - my notes, updated to 4Feb 2008, are attached.
I believe the market is treating AIM as a pure zinc play, and is battering it along with the zinc price. But, as others have already noted, it is also a copper play ( also Pt, Ni and even Au ) and the sp should reflect this.
YT, your contributions are always top notch and it is pleasing that you are taking an interest in AIM - can you suggest a valuation for the potential Mumbwa resource, if and when it gets to "inferred" status - I have a figure in mind of about 0.5% of the in-situ value of the resource, ie about 20c per AIM share if my projection is valid, but your opinion on this would be helpful. Whatever it is, it would need to be added to the valuation for the Perkoa zinc project.
Cheers, Wrong'un.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi Wrong'un, thats some very detailed info you've put together there

As I said its hard to put a value on AIM, as given the Zinc price volatility Perkoa could be worth anywhere from 10c - 40c on its own,

What is for sure is that the company currently has 8c of cash per share

Moreover Perkoa does imo represent an attractive takeover for the Burkina Faso Gov't (similar to the Indonesian Gov'ts takeover of HER)

As for Mumbwa and Mokopane, they too are hard to value, Mumbwa is far too early stage to place a potential resource size and thus expected value, however if the figures you put forward are correct AIM is certainly got the tiger by the tail,

Mokopane's grades are low but given the multi commodity nature of it a single Cu Equiv grade would be good

I can't believe AIM is still at these levels though when most if not all serious stocks have rallied of their lows