AGY - Argosy Minerals

[dj_420]

seems that they are still talking to govt to figure out best way to proceed with the mine. AGY sp probably ran ahead of itself last week and a retracement was prob on the cards.

however for the future it does look good, a panick selldown this morning and we now just have to await for more details of the meeting.

 

[the barry]

seems that they are still talking to govt to figure out best way to proceed with the mine. AGY sp probably ran ahead of itself last week and a retracement was prob on the cards.

however for the future it does look good, a panick selldown this morning and we now just have to await for more details of the meeting.

The market doesn't like uncertainty, that is what has caused the sell down this morning. Has bounced back well after initial sell down and if it could consolidate around the 95 cent mark would be great. Reading the announcement i would think it will take a couple of months before we really know where they are at. I still hold, still think things look positive.

 

[noo]

If you read anns today.....

(Discussions remain ongoing and at this stage it would be premature to speculate on the outcome.)

Government is not deciding yet.

(Andover is now taking steps to re-open its office in Bujumbura, the Burundian capital. This will
be an important move for Andover in re-building its presence within Burundi.)

Government is saying "You want to do business with us but you don't even have an office in our country yet"
"So,open an office and we'll talk"

How long we have to wait to receive the proper progress from Burundi Government?

 

[UPKA]

I think the market is over reacting to the result of the meeting, the share dived 35% today!! Hopefully it'll recover over time.

 

[Ruprect]

I dont know, this might take some time to settle. Much of the push over $1 was based on the expectation of a positive announcement. Short termers have been dumping, they dont want to wait it out. Dont forget that the AGY was half its current price just a couple of weeks back, and a lot less than that at the start of the year.

The annoucement today wasnt terribly negative, but it wasnt what the market was wanting.

If the discussions prove favorable over the coming weeks, it will rocket again.

 

[the barry]

the barry AGY are re-opening their office in burundi hardly seems like bad news to me, i dont know why the sp would take a hit, it seems to me a thinly veiled hint that government OBVIOUSLY want the mine developed.

from ann:

Argosy is pleased with the discussions, which addressed the best way forward to complete
exploration and feasibility studies on the deposit.

which to me indicates that AGY will be moving forward in the right direction.

There is no mention though of them playing any part in the completing of the exploration & feasibility study.The market was looking for confirmation of their involvement. Looking for a confirmation from the Burrundi government that Andover's Mininig Convention is still ok

Opening the office seems positive but again no guaruntees. It is impossible to read anything inot the announcement, The announcment is totally ambiguous.

It's a worrying announcement for mine, I would have hoped that they would have been able to announce something a little more concrete than todays content

 

[sydneysider]

the barry AGY are re-opening their office in burundi hardly seems like bad news to me, i dont know why the sp would take a hit, it seems to me a thinly veiled hint that government OBVIOUSLY want the mine developed.

from ann:

Argosy is pleased with the discussions, which addressed the best way forward to complete
exploration and feasibility studies on the deposit.

which to me indicates that AGY will be moving forward in the right direction.

IMHO there is a very definite plan in place here and that is to get the BEST deal for the shareholders of AGY. AGY can do a deal with a major any time they want BUT IF they complete a drilling program on the Mousangati laterites for PGM's and re-confirm the grades on the ni,co & cu values they can proceed to a fully independently verified JORC compliant resource. IF they have such a document the value of the resource increases dramatically. AT this stage they can open the bidding for a JV in about three to six months time. The money for the drill program of about 400 very shallow holes (50 meters deep or thereabouts) and a small number of deep diamond holes, say 10-20 holes to 300-400 meters can be funded by relisting the shares in North America and raising C$5,000,000.

 

[ZzzzDad]

Sydney, if they re-list the shares here in North America, wouldn't that mean creating more shares outstanding? Right now, with director's, etc. options included there are about 110 million shares outstanding. Am I understanding that they would have to add the number of shares to raise that money?

Although I'm disappointed with the market reaction of yesterday, I'm still holding all my shares for the long haul. Let's just hope their plan works in all our best interests.

 

[sydneysider]

Sydney, if they re-list the shares here in North America, wouldn't that mean creating more shares outstanding? Right now, with director's, etc. options included there are about 110 million shares outstanding. Am I understanding that they would have to add the number of shares to raise that money?

Although I'm disappointed with the market reaction of yesterday, I'm still holding all my shares for the long haul. Let's just hope their plan works in all our best interests.

North American markets love "big picture" stocks. The BFS could be updated with JORC compliant resources numbers very quickly for probably a few million dollars so the issue of shares would be very small AND give AGY a shot to develop its PGM project as a first stage leading to the development of the lateritic ni project.

 

[the barry]

North American markets love "big picture" stocks. The BFS could be updated with JORC compliant resources numbers very quickly for probably a few million dollars so the issue of shares would be very small AND give AGY a shot to develop its PGM project as a first stage leading to the development of the lateritic ni project.

Sydneysider,
Do you think at this stage the existing mining convention still stands? As in the anouncement it uses the words" held by it's wholly owned subsiduary Andover resources as pursuant to an existing Mining convention."

When do you think we might here whether they can proceed or not, Why at this stagge do you think that they can't give an indication. Do you think it was positive/negative that another meeting wasn't set?

It has to be positive that they are reopening their offices bujumbara, what are your thoguhts?

Do you think the risks left are more civil instability & the chance the Burundi governemtn will reject their existing mining convention giving them no rights to the deposit? After all it was an earlier governemnt as well
Thanks mate from a nervous holder.

 

[UPKA]

I went into this stock fully prepared fo scenarios like this, so im prepared to lose out. I think this is going to be a tough negotiation round. The Burundi knows that they r sitting on a "gold" mine, I'm sure that they will wait till more is offered on the table before they decide on anything. I just hope they dont drag it on for too long, for all we know the president can be assasinated again and there could be another civil war in a few mths time.

 

[sydneysider]

Sydneysider,
Do you think at this stage the existing mining convention still stands? As in the anouncement it uses the words" held by it's wholly owned subsiduary Andover resources as pursuant to an existing Mining convention."

When do you think we might here whether they can proceed or not, Why at this stagge do you think that they can't give an indication. Do you think it was positive/negative that another meeting wasn't set?

It has to be positive that they are reopening their offices bujumbara, what are your thoguhts?

Do you think the risks left are more civil instability & the chance the Burundi governemtn will reject their existing mining convention giving them no rights to the deposit? After all it was an earlier governemnt as well
Thanks mate from a nervous holder.

IF the mining convention and agreement between AGY's wholly owned subsidairy Andover was nullified by AGY's conduct then we would have been told in clear and unambiguous language in a Press Release to the ASX. This has not happened. There is a mirror image situation nearby in the Congo held by Temke Mining which was ratified and is proceeding with Phelps Dodge (please see my earlier post for a full explanation). My reading of the political situation is that Burundi is returning to more civil times and the economy has ben growing for the last couple of years. There are plenty of news stories to back this view up along with many stories about efforts that have been underway to rebuild the infrastructure of this very poor nation. Many of the stories also stress the efforts of the current government to move the nation into a free and open market economy and efforts to stimulate growth in the mining sector. IF the government reneged on their contract with Argosy they would be pouring cold water on any new development of their mining sector and funding for projects would dry up very quickly.

IMHO the whole situation remains very positive, the stock price and technicals still look very positive to me and that includes yesterday's violent retrace. There is a certain amount of trading in the stock where manipulators are still trying to "scare" sellers out of the stock but i do not think there are many shares left to sell as my feeling is that the stock is very tightly held. I bought more both yesterday and this morning but am actively trading AGY to build up my core longer term holding.

 

[sydneysider]

We have had a massive and swift retrace from the hi of $1.34 followed by a "triple bottom" that attempted and failed to penetrate below 65. Now we are pushing towards 75 with a very decent possibility of running higher from these levels. Sellers seem far and few between sales to-day and there have been some very sizeable orders placed into the market this morning that remain unfilled. They may be indicating the presence of predators. My comments may be considered very speculative. Please do your own research.

 

[dj_420]

We have had a massive and swift retrace from the hi of $1.34 followed by a "triple bottom" that attempted and failed to penetrate below 65. Now we are pushing towards 75 with a very decent possibility of running higher from these levels. Sellers seem far and few between sales to-day and there have been some very sizeable orders placed into the market this morning that remain unfilled. They may be indicating the presence of predators. My comments may be considered very speculative. Please do your own research.

yes it is very speculative at the moment with rumours that AGY mining convention has lapsed and were seeking to have it re-instated by burundi govt. if it really came down to it and convention was lapsed govt could actually have control over resource and put resource up to bid by tender.

not sure where this one will go, on sidelines at moment watching as many people been burnt already.

 

[sydneysider]

yes it is very speculative at the moment with rumours that AGY mining convention has lapsed and were seeking to have it re-instated by burundi govt. if it really came down to it and convention was lapsed govt could actually have control over resource and put resource up to bid by tender.

not sure where this one will go, on sidelines at moment watching as many people been burnt already.

I think many people are misreading the situation. IF the Mining Convention was at an end then we would have been told that it is ended. My understanding is that it is OK and that AGY are proceeding to complete negotiations both with the Burundi government and with potential JV partners (which is exactly what their PR says). IMHO these things take time to execute with minor delays along the way. IF the deal was off the sp would have collapsed in a complete heap back from whence it came. It has not. In fact there seems to be a number of buyers circling the stock and eyeing about 330,000 shares posted for sale between 74.5 and 80. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before someone rushes forward to scoop them up.

 

[the barry]

I think many people are misreading the situation. IF the Mining Convention was at an end then we would have been told that it is ended. My understanding is that it is OK and that AGY are proceeding to complete negotiations both with the Burundi government and with potential JV partners (which is exactly what their PR says). IMHO these things take time to execute with minor delays along the way. IF the deal was off the sp would have collapsed in a complete heap back from whence it came. It has not. In fact there seems to be a number of buyers circling the stock and eyeing about 330,000 shares posted for sale between 74.5 and 80. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before someone rushes forward to scoop them up.

Would AGY have an obligation to inform the market by announcement that the mining convention had lapsed?

 

[UPKA]

Would AGY have an obligation to inform the market by announcement that the mining convention had lapsed?

I would think so as it is a price sensitive information, one of the condition to be listed as a public company is that it has to be transparent. I'm sure they'll get ASIC sniffing up their **** if they r hiding or holding information from investors.

 

[the barry]

I would think so as it is a price sensitive information, one of the condition to be listed as a public company is that it has to be transparent. I'm sure they'll get ASIC sniffing up their **** if they r hiding or holding information from investors.

This is an extract from their announcement in relation to the Musongati Nickel deposit:

"During this trip, Argosy representatives met with senior members of the Burundian government in relation to the Musongati nickel deposit, held by its wholly-owned subsidiary Andover Resources pursuant to an existing Mining Convention."

I ask about the mining convention as there are a lot of rumours floating around that the Mining convention has expired & that the mine will go out to tender.If it is the case that the mining convention has expired it would be very devious indeed if they(AGY) didn't disclose this infomation. Surely this whole issue will come down to wehter the Mining Convention still stands, which according to the statement above given to the ASX on the 26th of April they still do.

It's an interesting buy/sell chart at the moment, a few people must be confident that the outcome in regards to the Musongati Nickel deposit will be positive. 2 buyers want 460,000 between them at .72 cents

 

[the barry]

Taken from the Annual Infomation night on 3/4/07:

As a result of not yet being able to conclude discussions with the government regarding an extension to the Mining Convention, the Registrant was unable to conduct any significant activity at its Burundi Nickel Project during 2006. Future activity depends on the Registrant obtaining an extension to the Mining Convention and continued improvement in the security situation in Burundi.

I understand that with a new governemnt coming in in 2005(?) that they would possibley need to get reassurance & the ok to go ahead with developiing the musongati mine, it seems a bit worrying though that the mining convention seemingly has a limited time line that has run out.

The highlighted section suggests that without an extension being granted
to the existing mining convention then the origional convention is useless & AGY has no more right to the Musongati mine than anyone else?

Thoughts....

 

[UPKA]

That is a worrying sign, is there a way of requesting this information? I'm sure that the company will disclose this information if we all request it?