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AGY - Argosy Minerals

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DJ420,

would strongly agree with you....
*ATPTB*
all the powers that be
are behind the development of natural resources in Berundi, as well as DRC [Congo]....World Bank, IMF, UN, Berundi guv, major mining co.s....

so I'd hazard to guess that the April 23 meeting was not called in order to say NO to AGY....

can't shut the "big boyz" out, so a JV with whomever is probably a good guess....
 
Hi,

AGY had a strong day yesterday up 40% on speculation of Musongati Project. How significant is this project and what price direction will be the target. Any thoughts.

Cheers

Dom :)
 
well uranium its gone up around 100% in a week (or last two days of trading) so its obviously getting a big re-rating.

im not to sure how to put a dollar value on this one due to political instability in the past but ive copied sydneysider post from another site (hope you dont mind sydneysider just re-iterating what you posted)

Ludlin Mining has just announced a friendly purchase of Tenke Mining for US$1.34 Billion (A$1.6Billion). Tenke owns 24.75% of the Tenke Copper Cobalt deposit in the Congo (not that far from AGY's Mousangati). The operator is Phelps Dodge (BHP dropped out some years ago). The deposit contains 235,000,000 tonnes of cu at 3.01% copper and .31% cobalt.

The history of Tenke is a mirror image of what is happening at AGY. They bought Tenke in the late 1990's and it had also been drilled out just like Mousangati and was thereafter subjected to bouts of force majure as civil war raged. Recently terms for development were renegoitated and Phelps Dodge recently completed a detailed feasibility study which is available on the Tenke Mining website.

The deposit is 235,104,000 tonnes @ 3.01% copper and .31% cobalt. Tenke negotiated JV terms with BHP who transfered to Phelps Dodge at the time of very low coppor prices. Terms were Tenke 24.75%, Phelps Dodge 57.75% and Congo Government 17.5%. We can assume that AGY may be able to get similar or slightly better terms because of much higher commodity prices, say a guesstimate of around 25%.

Both Tenke and Mousangati are drilled but not yet developed. Tenke is a little more advanced as the majority partner has completed a new feasibility study.

Tenke has a per tonne resource value at current prices of US$252.23 whereas Mousangati is around US$650.00 per tonne. Tenke contains 7,073,000 tonnes of copper worth US$54.5 Billion v Mousangati's 2,400,000 tonnes of nickel worth US$115 Billion plus cobalt and PGM credits plus massive exploration upside. IF Tenke's 24.75% interest is worth US$1.34 Billion then maybe AGY's "potential" 25% interest is worth double or around US$2.68 Billion / A$29.24 a share. The number is simply staggering.


so regarding value im not sure, typically if it was in a political risk free country such as australia you could value up to around 5% of insitu value IMO, however maybe large discounts apply here due to situation. BUT having said that if we valued AGY at just 1% of insitu value ($170 billlion @ 1% = $1.7 billion) we would have a shareprice of $17.70.

NOW im not STATING the sp will get to that price im only putting a comparison figure on it and it does demonstrate the absolute monstrous size of the resource.

so we need the nod from burundi govt and also a JV partner, which given the spot price and demand for nickel isnt looking very hard to do. disc im holding for the meeting with burundi govt.
 
Yesterday's Press Release made commentary about the sulfides that underlying the massive and shallow laterite ni deposit at Mousangati (to a depth of about 40-50 meters). Several diamond drill holes were drilled thru the laterites and into the sulfides to a depth of about 300 meters, some of these holes are about 12,000 meters apart and carry disseminated PGM's over about 80-90% of the length of the entire hole. IF we try and put a number on the tonnage of the ore in the sulfides, conceptually we are probably several times the size of Voisey Bay (very speculative assessement here) on the amount of tonnage. BUT this does put a very interesting spin on AGY. The laterites carry about 6% of the world's know resource of nickel. What do the sulfides carry??
 
another good run from AGY, has gone more than 100% in last week, am suprised more people from ASF are not on it.

AGY directors have flown out to burundi now, getting a fair bit of interest on the back of AGY hoping to open up a massive nickel resource (6% of worlds nickel supply).

today has seen 15% rise with large volume again. consolidated yesterday and took off again today.
 
AGY is having a great run because its totally undervalued. After every period of consolidation it goes on another run. The consolidation times are getting shorter which I think will mean a major rerating for AGY in the near future.
 
i agree it is undervalued, even given its location 6% of worlds known nickel supply is not something to scoff about!

this one has major miner JV written all over it. its only a process of elimination, who hasnt invested in burundi yet, who wants a huge nickel supply etc. all speculation at the moment BUT given AGY last few ann i say something big is on the cards.

AGY director wanted approval of options for AGY securing a JV partner, AGY are meeting with burundi govt and have to demonstrate that they have a willing JV partner to help develop resource. BURUNDI govt get 15% of deposit value, so it is in their best interest to develop the mine.

all looking good for major re-rating
 
up over 25% today, looking good. i want to see close above $1 and hold now.

want some good support to build at these levels, and wait for burundi govt outcome.
 
wOw! was I pleasantly surprised when I got home tonight.....
AGY up 26% on near 5 million shares....

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
AGY 1.110 26.14% 1.110 1.120 0.870 1.135 0.865 4,996,650
 
dj_420 said:
i agree it is undervalued, even given its location 6% of worlds known nickel supply is not something to scoff about!

this one has major miner JV written all over it. its only a process of elimination, who hasnt invested in burundi yet, who wants a huge nickel supply etc. all speculation at the moment BUT given AGY last few ann i say something big is on the cards.

AGY director wanted approval of options for AGY securing a JV partner, AGY are meeting with burundi govt and have to demonstrate that they have a willing JV partner to help develop resource. BURUNDI govt get 15% of deposit value, so it is in their best interest to develop the mine.

all looking good for major re-rating
Click to expand...


It isn't undervalued at the moment. It has the posibility to gain the licence for the mine but that will be decided next week.The result of the meeting will be boom or bust, literally

Still at this point is a stock you should only have in what you are happy to lose. If it announces it has the rights to the mine there is still the possibility of civil war to contend with. The risks are real, which is why it is trading at these discounted levels.

Hard to put a value on it at this moment, will most likely get a real idea of it's value only after the meeting has concluded.

Good luck to all holders on this one
 
the barry said:
It isn't undervalued at the moment. It has the posibility to gain the licence for the mine but that will be decided next week.The result of the meeting will be boom or bust, literally

Still at this point is a stock you should only have in what you are happy to lose. If it announces it has the rights to the mine there is still the possibility of civil war to contend with. The risks are real, which is why it is trading at these discounted levels.

Hard to put a value on it at this moment, will most likely get a real idea of it's value only after the meeting has concluded.

Good luck to all holders on this one
Click to expand...

barry you have to realise that burundi govt will get a 15% stake in a potential mutli billion dollar project. for a country who is encouraging overseas investment and development would you really knock back this opportunity.

agree we have to wait till after the meeting HOWEVER it would seem that a LOT of people are taking positions before this meeting in anticipation of a positive outcome.
 
i also might add that there are guidelines that burundi govt has set and that is to have a JV partner for development of this resource. from this you could assume that AGY have a JV partner ready to go following outcome of this meeting.

you would assume that AGY would do everything possible to secure the deal and begin development.
 
dj_420 said:
i also might add that there are guidelines that burundi govt has set and that is to have a JV partner for development of this resource. from this you could assume that AGY have a JV partner ready to go following outcome of this meeting.

you would assume that AGY would do everything possible to secure the deal and begin development.
Click to expand...

Dj_420,
The Burundi government has only been in existance for a short time & who knows what they will do with AGY's position in relation to the mine.

Assuming anything is a dangerous thing, no such thing as a sure thing in the stockmarket.

By the way where is it stated that the governemnt has set guidlines, is that in an announcement or in an article? I'd be very interested to read this.

Is it written fact, speculation or heresay.
 
ok this section states whereby approval for AGY giving them mining concession will incorporate a new burundian company in which govt holds 15% interest. when AGY have finance for full mine development then the burundi govt will be reimbursed their previous expenditure of $US 8.3 million.

Mining Convention
In 1998, Andover Resources N.L. (“Andover”), now a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Registrant,
negotiated a Mining Convention (the “Convention”) with the Government of Burundi to explore and
develop the Musongati deposits. The Convention was ratified by the Burundian National Assembly on
March 10, 1999, giving the Registrant the exclusive right to develop the Musongati deposit. The
Convention is a comprehensive agreement that awards mineral rights to the Registrant and sets out a work
program and a detailed framework for future development and operation of a mine. During the initial 3-
year exploration period, geological and engineering studies were to be completed, leading to a full project
feasibility study. The Registrant planned a staged exploration program including scoping and prefeasibility
studies that would lead to a full feasibility study. The program included drilling, ore reserve
estimations, metallurgical testing, infrastructure studies and an environmental impact study. Upon
completion of the feasibility study and a decision to proceed, the agreement provides for the awarding of a
mining title known as a Mining Concession. The term of the Mining Concession is 25 years, renewable
twice for successive periods of 10 years. If the project proceeds, a new Burundian company in which the
Burundian government will have 15% interest, will be incorporated to develop and operate the project.
Within 30 days of receipt of project finance for full mine development, the government will be
reimbursed their previous expenditure of US$8.3 million. A 5-year tax holiday will apply to the project,
followed by a 35% income tax rate. Mine equipment, materials and fuels will be tax and duty exempt.
Force majeure and internatio nal arbitration provisions normal to the industry apply.

here is states the steps that AGY have to undertake to secure the extension of mining convention

In order for the Registrant to complete the current stage of the development of the Burundi Nickel Project
there must be a sustained return to political stability and security and it must conclude an agreement with
the government for an extension to the mining Convention following which, it must undertake various
steps, including the following:
i. secure a commitment from a financial and/or technical joint venture partner;
ii. establish the PGM potential at Musongati;
iii. complete the feasibility study;
iv. obtain any necessary approvals and permits required in order to operate the nickel processing
facility;
v. acquire the right to lands on which the nickel and cobalt processing facility and associated
infrastructure will be constructed; and
vi. create a Burundian company to be owned 85% by the Registrant and 15% by the government of
Burundi.
Once the Registrant completes these steps in its current stage of activity, and if the results of the
feasibility study are positive, the second stage in the development of the Burundi Nickel Project which the
Registrant must undertake is to obtain project financing to raise the funds necessary to be able to acquire
the land and construct the processing facilities. The third and final stage in the development of the
Burundi Nickel Project would be the construction and commissioning of the processing facilities. There
can be no assurance that any of the preceding steps will be completed to allow for the Burundi Nickel
Project to move forward.
As a result of not yet being able to conclude discussions with the government regarding an extension to
the Mining Convention, the Registrant was unable to conduct any significant activity at its Burundi
Nickel Project during 2006. Future activity depends on the Registrant obtaining an extension to the
Mining Convention and continued improvement in the security situation in Burundi.


so i am assuming that these steps COUPLED with the fact that one of the previous ann from AGY was regarding options following successful JV partner could show that AGY may have JV partnership on the table BEFORE going to the burundi govt.

i agree these are assumptions but there are some guidelines the burundi govt has implemented, which would need to be resolved to carry on development of the mine.

what i actually see is

1) AGY need a JV partner to develop mine
2) AGY have asked shareholders to grant options for successful JV partner
3) AGY would best have these steps taken care of before meeting with burundi govt to best ensure they agree to granting the mining convention


this was taken from ann AGY annual information form on 3/4/07
 
Any long term investors out there on this one? I'm looking for a short (now to 1 month) term, medium term (1 month to 6 months) and long term (6 month to 5 years) predictions for Argosy.

I'm not a trader, I'm more of a long term investor that plans to stay in it for the long haul. ANY predictions are appreciated. Much thanks for any input.
 
ZzzzDad said:
Any long term investors out there on this one? I'm looking for a short (now to 1 month) term, medium term (1 month to 6 months) and long term (6 month to 5 years) predictions for Argosy.

I'm not a trader, I'm more of a long term investor that plans to stay in it for the long haul. ANY predictions are appreciated. Much thanks for any input.
Click to expand...

Please re-read the previous posts on the methodology of the valuations. Based on the size of the deposit, its location and very current valuations for monster deposits within the immediate proximity we get the following (1) Last weeks friendly share scrip buyout of Temke Mining by Ludlin gives us a "ball-park" valuation on AGY of $29.00 per share, assuming we have a JV partner and a completed BFS and that AGY retains a 25% interest in Mousangati and no further dilution (from 110 million shares which includes current issued shares and options and proposed options issue) and Burundi confirms the JV extension as happened at Temke (by the Congo Government) following several bouts of force majuere. The completion of the BFS should take about 12-24 months (2) A very short term target IMHO would put us in the $5 to $10.00 range which may come into play on confirmation of terms for JV and go-head from Burundi Government. This target comes into play within days or weeks BUT is very dependent on a major JV partner signing on. I think the issue here is not when but who gets the prize. The laterites at Mousangati contain 6% of the world's nickel (which is almost about the same size as the ni content of Voisey Bay). This does not take into account the potential ni content of the sulfide zone that extends down to at least 300 meters and is at least 12 kms long and underlies the laterites. We do know that the whole area from the surface laterites down to at least 300 meters carries disseminated PGM's (at least where there has been drilling). AGY has made reference to several holes that are 12,000 meters apart that carry disseminated PGM values over about 85-90% of their entire core. The stats on Mousangati and its potential is simply staggering.

IMHO the re-listing of AGY in North America is a certainty and this exposure will drive it towards these valuations. No-one knows what lies ahead but assuming that the world economy maintains its current growth and we do not get an "unhinged" Middle East we have a very strong chance of getting within these numbers of somewhere between $5.00 - $29.00. IF Mousangati carries high and economic nickel values in the sulfides and the PGM values are decent and widespread then you can add an additional valuation layer. I am simply amazed at these numbers and am hold a position in AGY both for long term and trading. In the very short term ( hours to several days) i would not be surpised to see $1.50 to $2.00 as a trading range. The selling on the way up from 10 cents (amazing) to $1.13 has been extremely lite and i would expect this to continue.
 
Thanks for that Sydneysider. Good to see you are (at least partly) in it for the long haul too! I can look forward to your posts on down the road.
 
ZzzzDad said:
Thanks for that Sydneysider. Good to see you are (at least partly) in it for the long haul too! I can look forward to your posts on down the road.
Click to expand...

In 2002 between bouts of force majuere AGY re-analysed a number of diamond drill cores and re-assayed for PGM's. At Buhinda (which is the main of three mineralized zones at the principal Mousangati deposit), three holes illustrate the PGM potential in the very shallow nickel laterites. Those three holes were 36.0 meters @ 3.73 g/t, 3.0 meters @ 11.28 g/t & 10.75 meters @ 4.2 g/t of PGM's. Another hole that drilled thru the laterites and down into the sulfides to a depth of 303 meters was sampled over eight 5 meter bands of which two appear to be in the laterites 5 meters @ 3.8 g/t & 5 meters @ 3.1 g/t PGM's. The remaining six bands in the laterites averaged out at 2.93 g/t PGM's over 30 meters. AGY re-assayed this hole and more on this later.

The picture that is emerging from these widely spaced holes is that Buhinda carries a very substantial quantity of PGM's. I did some rough and very speculative and very unscientific guesstimates on the PGM potential by assuming that a PGM zone of about 35% of the thickness of the laterite zone carries an average of the above four holes and this adds up to almost 12,000,000 ounces of PGM's. Rubara was also drilled with similar results.
 

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