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AGY - Argosy Minerals

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Kennas, bears careful watching. No pump and dump. Has "crawled" up from 29 over the last few days on very moderate volume to 37.5.
 
I'm new to this board One question: Is the fact that the stock is holding up on lower volume a good sign? Explain.

This is a stock I bought many many moons ago. It is one of those I didn't sell because I haven't needed the tax loss. I bought it during the '90s when it was Argosy Mining, and the focus was on Kremnica (sp?). It dropped so low after that didn't pan out, that I put it in my trash pile to be used as a tax loss when I needed it.

Got my hopes up during the New Caledonia thing, but didn't get out before the collapse when the deal fell through. 31,700 shares.
 
The good thing is the day traders are out, hence the lower volume compared to last week & monday. Its pull back from its high of 46, has been on lower volume which is good. Averaged mid 30's for most of the week, on low volume, someone accumlating imo. Due to only 95mill shares on issue, if someone wants some they have to do it discreetly, or risk the sp running too high, and have the DT's come back in. One thing for sure if the JV news is positive this will run that quick it wont be funny.
 

Hit 40.5 now trading at 40 on decent volume. Technically we have broken upwards from a consolidation pattern and we have some opportunity here to see higher prices.
 
AGY have held around the mid thirties for last week. any news of JV will mean blue sky for this one.

with a insitu resource value of 170 billion, its hard to see why majors havent snapped up JV deal IMO. burundi govt gets 15% of resource value which still leaves a lot for a prospective JV partner to get in on.

IMO the stability of the country will be the ultimate deciding factor that will pan out and show us if the 6% of worlds nickel supplies will be developed.
 

Hit 42.5 on 1.4 million shares. Someone wants more, blue sky on this run at 46
 
technically this is all short term however does look good.

original breakout was on massive volume and saw spike up to 46 cents. consolidated and found bottom at 29 cents. share price on closing has run a short term channel in 34 - 38 cents range on smaller volume.

todays trading has shown a break above the 38 cents on a slight increase in volume compared to last week. short term resistance would be 46 cent mark.

i put short term support at 34 cents as a downside. from here i want to see sp close above the 40 cent region and build a new base.

this one will have large interest leading up to discussions with burundi govt. with market cap of 36 million i see significant upside to a positive ann from AGY regarding JV partners and possible devlepmont of burundi resource.

volatility is expected on such a large increase in sp.
 

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great close, AGY closed on the high of the day. more and more this story is been told, all this one needs now is political stability! oh yeah and a JV partner!
 
AGY touched on 50 cents, is anyone else on this one???
perhaps we have ann coming regarding JV with a major, could explain massive buying up, up on good volume.

also has been some press coverage about situation in burundi, currently govt is focusing on maintaining peaceful situation perhaps they want their slice of the burundi deposit pie!
 
IMHO BHP is one of a small group of majors who signed confidentiality agreements with AGY (see US SEC 20-F) some years ago and they have had several years to review a substantial amount of drilling data and various studies completed by AGY into the feasibility of mining Musongati. We are now trading in the low 50's and IMHO we will not stay there very long.
 
surely someone from ASF is on this one also???

around 15% increase on 4 million traded today, sellers thinning right out. what do people think of this one? surely in those 4 million traded someone on this site has entered a position
 
DJ 420,

I took a posie this arvo after your post in the breakout thread. On as per the blue sky rule but wouldn't have seen it till after close so thankyou and good luck. Tomorrow should be interesting lets hope the dow is in the green.
 
dj_420 said:
surely someone from ASF is on this one also???

around 15% increase on 4 million traded today, sellers thinning right out. what do people think of this one? surely in those 4 million traded someone on this site has entered a position
Click to expand...


Got greedy waiting for it to go back down to mid thirties. Silly me

Bought in this afternoon & eagerly await the outcome of the meeting in April.

AGY Should be an interesting ride.
 
dj_420 said:
BHP been taking stakes in burundi, maybe next one on list is AGY

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/article.php?a_id=102678
Click to expand...

Xstrata has just announced a friendly US$3.6 billion takover of LionOre. This monrings Wall Street Journal quoted their management as saying that they want to explore (nickel) opportunities in Central and Southern Africa. AGY's current non JORC resource base of 2.4 million pounds of ni (from one part of Mousongati) is only slightly smaller than LionOres 3 million pound ni resource. IMHO AGY's current valuation of A$48 million is set to increase rather substantially and Xstrata may be seriously interest in AGY because of the massive size of the resource and Xstrata's operating experience with laterites.
 

Correction. The correct amount of ni at Mousangati is 5.3 billion pounds in a drilled out resource. The Wall Street Journal has run several articles about BHP & Xstrata seeking major deposits including Burundi recently. The other two major producers are Norlisk who did a massive breach of contract on AGY in Caledonia and the Brazilians who run a company whose name I cannot pronounce. As a speculator i would have to guess that the majors would be very interested in Musongati due to its massive size, decent grade shallow open pit and very large potential for deeper goodies.
 
the political situation has changed dramatically overnight in burundi. rebel forces have left the negotiation table meaning that the shakey peace deal may break down.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L27342742.htm

i suppose the whole project was wrought with sovereign risk and as such i parked money on sidelines at a decent profit to see what pans outs.

i dont believe the risk is justified to losing a substantial sum of my capital just because rebel soldiers refuse to play nice.

so it was a great breakout opportunity and now will see how it pans out. if situation changes i will re-enter but not until then.
 

The group that has refused to honor the peace accord is run by Agathon Rwasa and is a faction of the FNL. They are based in NW Burundi and last year they consisted of between 1,500 to 3,000 fighters before some of them laid down their arms late last year. They support themselves by enforced taxation on the local population i.e. $0.50 to 1.50 per cow. Rwasa has a history of mass atrocities directed at every minority both inside and outside Burundi and includes the murder of English tourists. His group is complaining about the presence of Burundi police and military in his province (probably because it affects his efforts to enforce taxation, which includes violence against the local population if they do not pay).

IF u believe that his miniscule group of militia can march across a nation of seven million people, right thru the Burundi army and attack Musongati in force then u have been completely suckered by a group of skillful internet posters who are happily buying up cheap stock in AGY as they continue to spew this nonsense.
 
well sydneysider ive done a lot more research on this one and as such have jumped back in again. also due to ann today which hints at the fact that the JV is already a done deal.

coming off the highs from last week, able to get in at what i see is a small market cap compared to resource size.

a lot of news articles on burundi recently focusing on how burundi govt wants to encourage investment and development in the area. indian investors have been moving in and we have also seen BHP and Xstrata taking up positions in burundi.

once we get JV announced will be blue sky, the ground will be set for development as long as burundi govt can hold the truce between rebel soldiers and themselves.


like i said there is a lot of political risk on this one, BUT if you think getting a major onboard will change the situation and help development then this one does have massive upside potential.
 
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