AGS - Alliance Resources

[Sean K]

Eeeeeek!

Cap raising at 68 and 60c, while the stock is running at 85c.

Eeeeeek!

Haven't read too many details, but for tech traders, eeeeek!

Unless there's an oversell and you grab the knife.

Eeeeeek!

 

[slig]

Announcement on Four Mile today, looks like the project is go go go

Been some good buy volume already, very positive news

 

[pb112]

Its been a while since the last post on this thread. On Dec 15th the 1st court hearing takes place so should have some news the next day or 2 after this. For those who did not attend the AGM, the annual report on the AGS site is good reading. http://www.allianceresources.com.au/IRM/content/home.html.
Some upward movement in the share price over the past week has been positive for AGS as well.

 

[jonojpsg]

Anyone got any thoughts on this?? Settlement over FMC looks possible from last announcement? Last real data was optimisation study which looked pretty good - $200m capital cost for standalone 5MTpa plant with op costs of $21/tonne giving a good $20/t margin ($100m per year). Give 25% of that to AGS and they are well undervalued given that they have about 10c per share in cash and only just ticked up to 16.5c today - MC of $60m-ish at todays price.

Anyone know whether FMC is likely to get built ever?

 

[jonojpsg]

Anyone got any thoughts on this?? Settlement over FMC looks possible from last announcement? Last real data was optimisation study which looked pretty good - $200m capital cost for standalone 5MTpa plant with op costs of $21/tonne giving a good $20/t margin ($100m per year). Give 25% of that to AGS and they are well undervalued given that they have about 10c per share in cash and only just ticked up to 16.5c today - MC of $60m-ish at todays price.

Anyone know whether FMC is likely to get built ever?

Looks like Mr Market likes it - pushing 19.5c atm - I'm in now, first trade in a while

 

[namrog]

At the moment there's 103 buyers for 4,777,257 units and 18 sellers for 475,886 units .

So looking good .

 

[marioland]

Soooo sooo goood!

 

[jonojpsg]

At the moment there's 103 buyers for 4,777,257 units and 18 sellers for 475,886 units .

So looking good .

Mmmm, sellers drying up quick smart Hopefully will see a good night on Wall Street/Europe tonight and tomorrow will be a quick run through the sellers and another 10c jump!!

Anyone know offhand what the NPV of FMC to AGS was/is? (gotta love TLAs [Three Letter Acronyms])

 

[laurie]

Hopefully Tuesday will tell the full story when the trading halt is lifted

 

[Boggo]

Hopefully Tuesday will tell the full story when the trading halt is lifted

The writing has been on the wall for a while now on this stock laurie, something has supported the run to now.

The fundamentals are about to confirm what the chart has already told us, never the less a stop is in place just in case.

My previous reference to AGS...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23881&p=684929&viewfull=1#post684929

 

[mr. jeff]

I have watched this stock for 3 months and have not made an entry due to the large up moves which I considered too large to risk entering after. Turns out that was foolish. Always wary of chasing and then miss out on the continuing move. If anyone can offer insight into how to judge this, then please do so. In hindsight there were several levels which offered reasonable entries, but I don't think that is so apparent at the time.

Nevertheless, anyone that has participated in that amazing run of AGS, well done.

1. Can it break that high ?
2. What does it have that is so special (is it just the completion of court action?)

 

[Chasero]

Today's movement is absolutely crazy...

I'm too scared to enter on parabolic movements.

Just like when MAD was @ 50c... or now when AGS is @ 56c..

Well done for all the holders

 

[sammy84]

View attachment 46132

I have watched this stock for 3 months and have not made an entry due to the large up moves which I considered too large to risk entering after.

I'm the same as you. Has been on my watch list for a while. Each up move has been too parabolic for me to enter after and each retracement hasn't been what I consider orderly. Looking at the chart in hindsight I guess there were some consolidation points to enter. Nevertheless, I wouldn't enter now as the stock seem too far into its stage 2 cycle (which means I'm probably going to continue to which this stock rise on the sidelines).

 

[laurie]

Can't deal that way that's why I am an investor rather than a trader I try to get in on the bottom

 

[pavilion103]

I am another on who had it on the watch list. Well supported around the 30 cents.

I'd actually entered on the 25/1 when volume spiked but was stopped out a few days later.

Even the no supply day on 16/12 could have offered good entry.

 

[laurie]

IMHO there must be more news on the JV.... the last news only dealt with the permit/mineral lease we still have the M&D conduct to sort out otherwise the holding of the 25% v 75% might change as a result of the ruling

 

[jonojpsg]

View attachment 46132

I have watched this stock for 3 months and have not made an entry due to the large up moves which I considered too large to risk entering after. Turns out that was foolish. Always wary of chasing and then miss out on the continuing move. If anyone can offer insight into how to judge this, then please do so. In hindsight there were several levels which offered reasonable entries, but I don't think that is so apparent at the time.

Nevertheless, anyone that has participated in that amazing run of AGS, well done.

1. Can it break that high ?
2. What does it have that is so special (is it just the completion of court action?)

1. Interesting to see that it didn't break the high - at least not yet! Wait and see...
2. So special - A quarter share in a project that basically just needs to be constructed and start producing - with a margin of $30/lb and production of 5m lbs pa gives $$150m a year or $37m to Alliance. Give a PE for emerging uranium producer of say 10 should put market cap at $350m ish or about twice current.

Obvious risks around capital and operating cost rises since FS was done 4 years ago!

Still holding from 19.5c

 

[Chasero]

Currently 36c from it's 55c highs few weeks back.

What's going on?

 

[Chasero]

In hindsight,

It looks like we all caught a very lucky break for not chasing the highs.

(unless we did a quick sell)

Looks to have bounced off 25c and consolidating now between 26-28c.

Thoughts? Might be a good entry @ 25c if you can get it.. a lot of people would be trapped long above this price I would imagine.

 

[mr. jeff]

In hindsight,

It looks like we all caught a very lucky break for not chasing the highs.

(unless we did a quick sell)

Looks to have bounced off 25c and consolidating now between 26-28c.

Thoughts? Might be a good entry @ 25c if you can get it.. a lot of people would be trapped long above this price I would imagine.

Perhaps yes, but not until it clears that 30c level and proves it will hold it.



At the moment we could see some consolidation under 30c, although it may make a false break above shortly judging by the current squeeze. If you were after a 10% move then you may see it shortly, but on the balance nothing too exciting yet.