AGS - Alliance Resources

[Sean K]

Takeover? Abbotsleigh own 38% so if they want to, maybe. Their gold projects seem quite good also, but I think all the action is around the potential of Beverley 4.

Might have been a good move to lock in profits, but I'm holding long term.

 

[stockmaster]

Lock in profit for short term and long term investment are both good moves since no one noes the where the price will end. I fink since there is so much momentum right now, sell half and leave the other half might be a good choice

 

[Sean K]

Agree. Sage advice I often ignore through greed, which of course is good. (if you're GG) Sold half at $.67

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

1035 [Dow Jones] Alliance Resources (AGS.AU) extends powerful rally, rising 8.0% to 61 cents on heavy trading of 3.1 million shares, doubling already this month. Fueling rally, Aug. 4 drilllng report of wide, high-grade intercepts of uranium ore at Beverley 4 Mile prospect, Arkaroola project, favorably located immediately west of operating Beverley mine. AGS has 25% free carried interest with Quasar, an affiliate of Beverley mine's operator Heathgate Resources, operating 4 Mile exploration activity, where drilling continuing, with issue of further results to provide trading opportunities. (RCB)

I know a bit about AGS but haven't touched it,

I have a question, is there enough Uranium in its Beverly prospect (Given that it only has a 25% interest) to justify a mkt cap of over $150m with no income?

Or are people content with the momentum and chart picture,

I'm curious as this stock is a clear example of how my fundamental research won't allow me to play a spec stock that clearly has alot of buying behind it, so perhaps I need to make allowances every once in a while

 

[Sean K]

I know a bit about AGS but haven't touched it,

I have a question, is there enough Uranium in its Beverly prospect (Given that it only has a 25% interest) to justify a mkt cap of over $150m with no income?

Or are people content with the momentum and chart picture,

I'm curious as this stock is a clear example of how my fundamental research won't allow me to play a spec stock that clearly has alot of buying behind it, so perhaps I need to make allowances every once in a while

It's still highly speculative YT. Just how you can do a fundamental analysis on this is very difficult. Even their gold operations are still being developed.

Perhaps from a 'fundamental' side you need to take into consideration such things as JV partners, strategic loc of resource, current logistics support, and what drill results have already being produced. But you do this already!

There's something else going on here. It's been heading north all month, it's not just a day trader driven push IMO.

Perhaps some new results out of Beverley will prove the current market cap worth it? Perhaps the resource is blue sky?

Or, on the other hand it could be dumped on no news.................

 

[stockmaster]

How will this reply to the ASX query affect the price? It seems the downward move is quite certain. Base on the last trade, it seems we will see a bad start for tomorrow, will the price finish somewhere in the 40s?

 

[pussycat2005]

How will this reply to the ASX query affect the price? It seems the downward move is quite certain. Base on the last trade, it seems we will see a bad start for tomorrow, will the price finish somewhere in the 40s?

you can't be serious!
that is wishful thinking...

the 500k buys towards the end of last week tell the story

and so did todays open and its strong finish...

sit tight enjoy this ride because it isn't over yet!

well done to all those holding ags!

 

[kariba]

I have a question, is there enough Uranium in its Beverly prospect (Given that it only has a 25% interest) to justify a mkt cap of over $150m with no income?

Young Trader

Based on current data AGS (BEFORE the latest BONANZA results) had a non-jorc resource of Uranium mineralisation @:

4ml2 @ .04% for 136,020,768 lbs (51,415 t) of U3O8 = inground value: $8,731,062,821 ($8.7bil) (AGS share 25%) = $2,182,765,705.21
*****Inground value per share: $9.54

Then AGS also has:

* Zero expenses until decision to mine
* Zero sovereign risk
* Low cost mine startup - Beverley operating next door
* Low cost ISL mining option
* Resource open both East & West
* Maldon gold project progressing
* M1 & M2 plus other great prospects

Now we get to the EXTENTION of the above with MASSIVE grades. IMO this will add another 20,000 t to the resource taking it to about 70,000t of uranium (conservative IMO) - AGS's share is 25% of that. A back of envelope calculation values AGS's 25% inground share of the project to about A$3 billion
*****Inground value per share: $13.25!!!!

Of course it doesnt value the share at that, we need to wait on JORC figures to come out, Feasability studies, Capex, etc.

By way of comparison:

PDN has 1.7ml2 of U mineralisation for: 52,470,004 lbs of U3O8 = inground value:$3,368,006,988 ($3.3bil)
*****Inground value per share: $7.78

Of course they other projects in Africa & Australia - Not knocking PDN; I have a large holding in them ..... But the point is: AGS has a great future!!!

cheers

 

[Sean K]

All Oz U3O8 players are at a discount because of Labor's policy atm. Plus, they're mainly exploring without JORC, so it's very hard to value them fully.

I reckon AGS will come off quite a bit today. Maybe not back to the 40s as suggested, but will be a decent whack.

I hope not, but we all buy the rumour sell the fact!

 

[stockmaster]

you can't be serious!
that is wishful thinking...

the 500k buys towards the end of last week tell the story

and so did todays open and its strong finish...

sit tight enjoy this ride because it isn't over yet!

well done to all those holding ags!

Pussycat, if the price get below 40c then there is serious problems, but any where betwwen 40-50 is likely and reasonable. AGS does sound have a lot of potential, but no one can determine this be4 the result is out. In short term, might be a good idea js to get out and buy bak when u r fully confident i,e when some ann is out to support ur argument

 

[Sean K]

Held up very impressively. Surprised. No one wants to sell this atm.

 

[pussycat2005]

Pussycat, if the price get below 40c then there is serious problems, but any where betwwen 40-50 is likely and reasonable. AGS does sound have a lot of potential, but no one can determine this be4 the result is out. In short term, might be a good idea js to get out and buy bak when u r fully confident i,e when some ann is out to support ur argument

lol stockmaster seems like your the only one who isn't confident!
I'm happy to be holding!

AGS has held onto its gains no crash no pump and dump
this is the real deal!

next u mine to go into production

biggest u discovery in the last 30 years

just waiting on more results to confirm this and off she goes...

 

[laurie]

Will you be on when the trading halt comes

cheers laurie

 

[johnmwu3]

lol stockmaster seems like your the only one who isn't confident!
I'm happy to be holding!

AGS has held onto its gains no crash no pump and dump
this is the real deal!

next u mine to go into production

biggest u discovery in the last 30 years

just waiting on more results to confirm this and off she goes...

IMO AGS only own 25% interest in the project, and PFN analysis is not the last

 

[kariba]

IMO AGS only own 25% interest in the project, and PFN analysis is not the last

Yes but 25% of the project is worth over $3billion!!

cheers

 

[pussycat2005]

if ags owned beverly 4 Mile 100% what would its share price be at now ? Is there any way they could increase their holdings?

 

[Sean K]

Doubt it puss. The last time I remember a small company trying to take over a larger one was when EISA tried to buy Ozemail. They went bankrupt and I lost 4K. That was a lot of money to me back in the late 90s.

 

[stockmaster]

lol stockmaster seems like your the only one who isn't confident!
I'm happy to be holding!

AGS has held onto its gains no crash no pump and dump
this is the real deal!

next u mine to go into production

biggest u discovery in the last 30 years

just waiting on more results to confirm this and off she goes...

Pussy, i am confident in long term it will get over 1 or 2 , but not now, price shall be down and down till next week. High 50 or low 60 might be a good price to buy, right now just bit too high, i sold mine in the morning and watched carefully for almost the whole day but still didn;t have the gut to re-enter. I believe the chance of a drop is more than a rise, unless the price open above 70c tomorrow, i will not enter it.

Good luck!

 

[nizar]

Please excuse my ignorance but i heard that AGS can bypass the 3-mine law - can someone here explain how ?

Thanks
ps. kennas look at OMC, looks like its about to break out

 

[Sean K]

The 3 mine thing at app in Sth Aus is funny. I'm actually confused by what the State Govt are saying. The current mines can expand apparantly, but still no 'new' mines. Perhaps Beverley 4 Mile, can say it's an extention of the Beverley Mine?

PS, Saw the break on OMC. Check the OMC thread. Bought at $0.615 on Mon. Still waiting serious confirmation of break, but volume good. Needs to hold above .60 for a start.