AGS - Alliance Resources

[Sean K]

Kennas,

I am not a specialist in Uranium exploration process, I am buying this stock purely based on advise and on the strong belief that Australia will and has to change its 3 mine policy.
Could you please explain to me what is the importance of " the inferred JORC in Dec" and is that the last step before they start producing Yellow cake .

The 'official' first stage resource estimate saying how much uranium is actually in the project. Then they do further drilling and modelling to go to the indicated and measured stages. Then there's pre feasibility studies and bankable feasibility studies.......and then they mine. If the Labor Party allow. Or, maybe, they could get away with saying it's an extention of the Beverley Mine.

 

[Fab]

Ok thanks for the explanation. Do you work in the resources sector ?

 

[nizar]

Kennas,

I am not a specialist in Uranium exploration process, I am buying this stock purely based on advise and on the strong belief that Australia will and has to change its 3 mine policy.
Could you please explain to me what is the importance of " the inferred JORC in Dec" and is that the last step before they start producing Yellow cake .

LOL its probably the first step.
Im not a "specialist" either by the way.

Basically JORC stands for Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee. They are the people approve a resource. ie. if a resource is JORC-compliant, that means it is compliant with the JORC code, explained in more detail here http://www.jorc.org/main.php

Now there are several levels of confidence of resource estimates:
The first one, which is the weakest and one of least confidence, is Inferred. This is when you've only drilled a portion of the land, but you extrapolate the data. eg. i have 0.2% uranium and so much tonnage with so much depth from so many holes. That means over my whole land, i would have..... even though the drilling has not been done yet. In normal circumstances, this is not sufficient for banks to give funding. Inferred estimates are likely to be WAY OFF. You can have much less, or even much more. Its not accurate and therefore you cannot take confidence in it. Its a good first step, surely, but its not enough for production.

The second level, of greater confidence is Indicated. This is when you have drilled more holes, did more sampling and have drilled a greater area. JORC can approve an Indicated resource.

Now Inferred and Indication means that you have a resource. Measured means that your resource now becomes Reserves.

Once your resource is Measured, which is the highest confidence category (significant drilling), then

So a long way to go for AGS. But they have close infrastructure, connections so maybe its possible for them to be mining in 18 months. But they still have to go through the process to have greater confidence, at least some of the resource should be indicated. Then they can start scoping studies, prefeasibility studies, then BFS, mine construction, and then finally production. But of course u can do all of these on a portion of your mine, which doing drilling to increase the size and confidence of the rest of it.

Well thats my understanding. Every1 please feel free to clarify further and fill the gaps in my knowledge.

 

[nizar]

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Kennas,
Remind me again why a speeding ticket is a bad thing (seriously) ??

 

[Sean K]

Ok thanks for the explanation. Do you work in the resources sector ?

LOL.

I did make sand castles as a kid down the beach. I did make pretty good ones. Plus, I tunnelled under the back fence when I was about 10. Oh, I did help a mate build a gold mine too, but that was just for fun.

That speeding ticket will take the sting ut of the price on Monday I think. Will probably drop back a few % on Monday unfortunately.

But, on the other hand, I think the reason it ran today was the breakthough $1.00, on top of the recent announcements by the company and the presentation at the mining conference on Wed. Perhaps it was instos jumping on after what they saw?

 

[Sean K]

Kennas,
Remind me again why a speeding ticket is a bad thing (seriously) ??

People are pilling into a stock when it's running on momentum and volume expecting an announcement from the company. When there actually is an official 'no news' from the company, it's clear there is no 'new news' so the traders (and some investors) jump off, thus the sp drops. Buy the rumour sell the fact spin.

However, in the case of AGS, I do not believe it has run purely on momentum and volume day traders. See above post. I hope.

 

[nizar]

People are pilling into a stock when it's running on momentum and volume expecting an announcement from the company. When there actually is an official 'no news' from the company, it's clear there is no 'new news' so the traders (and some investors) jump off, thus the sp drops. Buy the rumour sell the fact spin.

However, in the case of AGS, I do not believe it has run purely on momentum and volume day traders. See above post. I hope.

Oh i see. From what i've seen in practice, that theory does not always play out though...

 

[Sean K]

Oh i see. From what i've seen in practice, that theory does not always play out though...

No, not always, depends on all factors. See ARU today? Speeding ticket, no 'new news', then down 7%

 

[laurie]

Of course when the price flops down does the ASX steps in and asks "Please Explain" nooooooooooooo

cheers laurie

 

[Sean K]

Of course when the price flops down does the ASX steps in and asks "Please Explain" nooooooooooooo

cheers laurie

You still in Laurie, or back in?

PS, like the avatar.

 

[laurie]

Still in kennas never left it since I got on at .14c was not going to miss another PDN funny though I was going to buy into PDN at a $1 but put it somewhere else[I thought it will not go on... doh] so I can see now where AGS is at this point in time and say it's still a good buy BUT because of it's 25% as oppose to PDN 100% a T/O or JV must be very close so next week maybe $1.5 I' hoping it gets to $2 before anything happens then the rest is extra serving of cream

cheers laurie

 

[dj_420]

This stock shows yesterdays trading it broke out from short term resistance. Shows strong short term support, has been tested and held.

 

[dj_420]

Long term stock shows that enters uptrend then broke support, resumed uptrend and broke support again to enter short down trend. Trended sideways for a period to then resume uptrend.

key reversal indicators are located during sideways trending, trading begins to tighten before breakout and uptrend resumes.

 

[Sean K]

This stock shows yesterdays trading it broke out from short term resistance. Shows strong short term support, has been tested and held.

Different T/As have different opinions of when a stock has officially 'broken out'. AGS certainly looks like it has, but some say, it needs to be sustained for 3 days, others say the sp needs to test what should now be support and bounce....those time frames probably mean you actually miss the short term opportunity but it's a safer long term play, so you don't jump on 'false' breakouts.. food for thought.

 

[dj_420]

thanks kennas

ok so if there is retracement should hit old resistance levels and hold to be a proper breakout, and build up base of support. and if breaks back below resistance its a false breakout.

 

[Sean K]

thanks kennas

ok so if there is retracement should hit old resistance levels and hold to be a proper breakout, and build up base of support. and if breaks back below resistance its a false breakout.

Roger. I suppose it a bit of semantics about short and long term breakouts too...

 

[Fab]

It's looking good to me

 

[Sean K]

Yes, very happy.

I hope this is insto buying and not speculators.

 

[Sean K]

It's reached my second target of $1.28.

I am holding as I think the Quasar JORC estimate is going to pump this even more.

 

[Sean K]

Just gotta post another chart on this.

No real big trades that I can see meaning it's mostly small investors? Come on Heathgate, gobble me up. $2.00 will be a bargain at this rate.