AGM - Allegiance Mining

[rederob]

I believe Chicken is in Singapore this week on vacation. He'll be back soon enough and hopefully bring back some badly needed luck with him

Don't worry too much about AGM's sp. She'll be right in a month or so when common sense returns to the market. The current PON will put an end to many pig nickel producers, so Ni will recover soon enough.

Look to re-enter AGM below 53cents.
Safe re-entry is 43cents, but nickel may have perked up before it gets that low.
I think PON at $25k/tonne is very probable near term and we may even get to low 20's before nickel fundamentals return: We have yet to work off the stainless steel surplus, and order books are very accommodating at present.
Note the chart difference between a producer like SMY and AGM: rate of price decline is much less.
Nickel equities should be avoided for now, except for those reporting extraordinary finds.

 

[d_crome]

Hey red - care to shed some light on some numerical analysis supporting your re-entry figures?

Hopefully this thread doesn't start emulating the AGM thread on another large stock forum site...

 

[nioka]

Look to re-enter AGM below 53cents.
Safe re-entry is 43cents, but nickel may have perked up before it gets that low..

And pigs might fly. If they get that low look out for flying objects. I'll certainly buy more before that and I can't see anyone in their right mind selling at those prices.

 

[Jaeger]

And pigs might fly. If they get that low look out for flying objects. I'll certainly buy more before that and I can't see anyone in their right mind selling at those prices.

Too Right...

at 43c safe re entry, PE ratio would be near 2.0 going into 2008. At current SP the PE reation is now below 4 for 2008, at any of these prices it must be a top buy. I keep reading the press on the Price of Nickel being down, but so what, if you look at AGMs business plan, all its financial forecasts are based on US$15,000 p/t.

 

[porkpie324]

I would love to agree with some of the above post's regarding AGM's SP, but until the stock's of nickel start declining and the price starts to go up all nickel stocks will remain under pressure and coupled with the nervousness of world markets it 'aint gonna change.
As for AGM's SP going down to .53c its very likely unless as I mentioned a turn around in the base metal happens.
Check out some other far better producers than AGM like IGO, MCR, SMY, the same thing is happening with them. porkpie

 

[Captain_Chaza]

I would love to agree with some of the above post's regarding AGM's SP, but until the stock's of nickel start declining and the price starts to go up all nickel stocks will remain under pressure and coupled with the nervousness of world markets it 'aint gonna change.
As for AGM's SP going down to .53c its very likely unless as I mentioned a turn around in the base metal happens.
Check out some other far better producers than AGM like IGO, MCR, SMY, the same thing is happening with them. porkpie

Pigs will Fly first!

In the mean time the Chinese have done "an OPEC" and reduced their production of Stainless Steel by 20%

Good luck with all your Out 'O' Market wishful DREAMS

Salute and Dream-On
I feel Good!

 

[chicken]

Read what was said at diggers and dealers...will be producing Ni soon...and buyers have returned...at 67.5c its 12.5c below what the placement was for 41million shares....the Sp looks cheap at price....seems to be heading up....

 

[porkpie324]

SP down today, now at .585 getting near that .53, or over 9% for today. Watch out for flying pigs, porkpie

 

[nioka]

SP down today, now at .585 getting near that .53, or over 9% for today. Watch out for flying pigs, porkpie

The flying pigs arrived today and because I'm partial to pork I increased my holding and brought my average price down. Not enough to get out of the red yet but close. This must be one of the best buys on the market. Production getting close now and should fire when sales commence. Production will take it out of the "spec" domain.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

The flying pigs arrived today and because I'm partial to pork I increased my holding and brought my average price down. Not enough to get out of the red yet but close. This must be one of the best buys on the market. Production getting close now and should fire when sales commence. Production will take it out of the "spec" domain.

Me too!!!
What a great day to be cash rich

Did you buy any of those Lean Hog futures also?
Crikey!
If these pigs can really fly ?
The sky is the limit

Salute and Gods' speed

 

[porkpie324]

Well I've battoned down the hatches, sold my last nickel stocks nearly 2 weeks ago MCR & IGO both stocks and other nickel stocks all ,made some good gains.
I went out for the day today so missed all that action, but I'm going to wait until this volatility passes then I will look at nickel stocks again.
As for AGM SP falling now to just over 50c well thats the way it is right now a good company with good prospects but during this period I hate to say it again but it 'aint goona improve. porkpie

 

[rub92me]

The flying pigs arrived today and because I'm partial to pork I increased my holding and brought my average price down. Not enough to get out of the red yet but close. This must be one of the best buys on the market. Production getting close now and should fire when sales commence. Production will take it out of the "spec" domain.

I think it it clear to see that the AGM shareprice is in a pretty steep downtrend at the moment. Why do you think that this will stop now?? To call this one of the best buys on the market you must have some pretty convincing arguments.
I would consider buying back in if the below conditions are met:
1) Nickel price stops falling off a cliff and closes at least 10% above the 3 month low and stays there for a month.
2) The market as a whole starts behaving.
Neither of these are likely in the short term imho.

 

[nioka]

I think it it clear to see that the AGM shareprice is in a pretty steep downtrend at the moment. Why do you think that this will stop now?? To call this one of the best buys on the market you must have some pretty convincing arguments.
I would consider buying back in if the below conditions are met:
1) Nickel price stops falling off a cliff and closes at least 10% above the 3 month low and stays there for a month.
2) The market as a whole starts behaving.
Neither of these are likely in the short term imho.

AGM is getting closer to production and if we believe announcements has no need for finance raising. It has or will have, a lower cost of production than most other nickel miners. It has arranged partnership arrangements in China for the sale of it's production. It should be in a position to pay early dividends when production starts.The AGM project was planned to be profitable with much lower nickel prices than those current.
At todays prices it has a market cap of only $385m compared to SMY"s $597m
I acted now because I believe when the market "as a whole starts behaving" the price will be much higher than it is today.

 

[rub92me]

Fair enough. But SMY's market cap was probably about 150 million at the same stage prior to production. Long term it may not matter, however I don't know where the bottom of the Nickel price is and when it will reach that. If they're undhedged it will drag on their profitability. They may still make money, but not nearly as much as was factored in the price 3 months ago

 

[Ken]

I wouldnt be suprised if AGM settles around 45 cents.

the force of the downward trend will take something to break it.

it will not stop just because it gets to 50 cents. something significant must happen for the trend to change.

5% change of trend changing.

something must happen or it will continue in the same direction.

it was probly overbought on the way up.

so all things in prospective. buy a few at 50 cents buy a few at 40 cents. buy a few at 30 cents. and average your price out if you can.

you can buy them on margin loan. but what we dont want to see is an SBM where it goes sideways for an extended period.

no dividend here.

 

[greenfs]

I sold @97cents based upon a broker's valuation @60cents. I am now back into this stock confident that buyers will soon support the sp based upon known fundamentals. When the charts confirm my opinion, I intend doubling my trade.

 

[chicken]

At 65.5cents still cheap as chips....back to 80cents plus..why...ask the Chinese they bought 11% of the company at 80cents....and soon to go into production...looking all good here...DYOR.....

 

[chicken]

At 65.5cents still cheap as chips....back to 80cents plus..why...ask the Chinese they bought 11% of the company at 80cents....and soon to go into production...looking all good here...DYOR.....

Looks like I am eating my own words....I bought more today at 58cents...once in production in the new year these prices are cheap as Ni will be still highly in demand...after all our Chinese partner IS BUYING THE LOT AT GOING prices up or down....as far as what the NI price will be..I wish I knew...but as AGM is a LOW cost Ni producer we will see the benefits of this in the new year....A Ni province in Tasmania is confirmed see Kitco metal report as more Ni is being discovered there....intresting times ahead

 

[Jaeger]

Pigs have landed and going home.

SP beginning to bounce back as with the rest of the commodities.

Ni price holding around $26K - $29K / tonne so is looking good.

Next stop sp back to .80c where the chinese bought in, then to a sp price in line with PE ratio of 8 - 10 once milling starts.

Would be nice!

DYOR.

 

[nioka]

A trading halt today. Any ideas why? Possibly fund raising or a new find? Let us hope it is favourable for the SP.