Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AGI - Ainsworth Game Technology

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Forgot to add the latest Ichimoku chart for AGI. Another accumulation pattern developing in the second green circle. Very similar to the first pattern just before the share price exploded. If the AUD can drop to parity or lower I feel (combined with a strong H1 result and a dividend if the company decides to pay one this FY) the SP will move onto a upward trend similar to the one after the last breakout in the first green circle.

IMHO a strong chart where the price is above the indicators which are both clearly above the cloud.

I would like to hear any others opinions regarding the companies future.


agi.jpg
 
Still flying under the radar in some circles.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ent=172821&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary

Not a mention in this article today although there are currently 7 analysts covering the stock and 13 institutional holders ATM.

Commsec only has 1 recommendation, Etrade none. It's going to be beautiful to watch when the penny finally drops and the punters realize AGI is a formidable competitor in the gaming machine industry.
 
I've had this one on my watchlist for a little while. The financials look good, and I like the fact that they have no debt, but it's a little too illiquid for me. I was tempted to buy on the dip a couple of weeks ago at $2.78, and wish I had now of course, but couldn't find any reason for the sharpish fall when the market as a whole was powering upwards.
 
The company put a release out stating they will address the liquidity in the near future. Len Ainsworth is on the record saying he and his wife will reduce their holdings in due course. It's dependent on the SP being in a favorable position for them to do so.

I feel the company has reached that point, with a correction in the free float combined with a improved market cap imho the company will become eligible for addition to the ASX 200 down the track.

IMHO the wild swings in SP are due to (as you mentioned) the lack of liquidity and the ability for those that choose to manipulate the stock. IMO the company is aware of this and will take the appropriate steps to correct the current situation.

I have to admit I was concerned when the SP hit $1.90 recently, however I did not see any material change in the fundamentals therefore I bit down and held my nerve. In hindsight it was great opportunities for a low cost entry or addition to ones position.
 
You have to be happy with this company's performance on the down days. 11 rolling year highs in the last month and all before the H1 results are released. Will they pay a divie this half? I for one hope so and I'm wondering if the recent push in the SP is to take advantage of a dividend, the prospect another record half or the drop in the AUD. I'm thinking it's a combination of all these factors.

It looks like the AUD is going to pull back over the coming months as we lead up the a federal election. This will definitely bode well for the company as the overseas portion of revenue ( IMHO ) will increase yet again.
 
hosh said:
It looks like the AUD is going to pull back over the coming months as we lead up the a federal election.
Click to expand...

Any analysis behind this? The majority of forecasters are tipping rates above parity for the next 12 months

If you wanted to comment in the AUD/USD thread i would be interested to hear your thoughts
 
Purely my opinion and gut feeling from what I've been hearing in the news and the reserve's push to lower it
 
hosh said:
I don't know if it will get to parity this year however you would have to concur the push is on by the reserve and the government to lower it.
Click to expand...

They have both commented that the AUD is 'stubbornly high'. The government says it wants it lower, but can't do anything about it. The RBA has ruled out any form of easing as on a global scale it would be pointless.

In other words, it's all talk and there is very little analysis pointing towards an AUD below parity over the next 12 months, barring another full blown financial crisis which will also affect stocks.

I hope im wrong, low AUD is good for me.
 
A great results in today's 4D. All figures up on the pcp except npat which dropped because the company has to start paying tax. My accountant keep telling me that's a good thing, it means your making more money and this is certainly the case with AGI.

Divie declared.

The part I was most impressed with is the increase in the American sector. It has always been the determining factor that will take this company forward. It's been up 100% on the pcp for the past two yearly reports. The encouraging thing with this H1 report is it's up 80% on the pcp therefore imho the company is starting to gain traction in the America's and we could see a vast improvement in the yearly in regard to this segment of revenue.

The Americas are almost equal to NSW in terms of revenue.

Participation based revenue climbing as well.

Market liked it as did. I'm starting to believe this company can give ALL a real run for their money in the not too distant future.

Congrats to all holders.
 
Len has stated that both he and his wife will sell down there stakes when the share price is at a level they feel is acceptable to them. This is being done to improve liquidity in the stock. He obviously doesn't need the coin.

I don't recall the exact date however when the S1 after hour crossings went though in the first tranche sold by him and associated parties it went though at $3.80. 19 Million worth. I would consider that a vote of confidence on the part of the buyers.

To answer your question, taking a breather IMHO
 
hosh said:
.......................I don't recall the exact date however when the S1 after hour crossings went though in the first tranche sold by him and associated parties it went though at $3.80. 19 Million worth. I would consider that a vote of confidence on the part of the buyers.
Click to expand...

14 March, to various institutions. His exit will be done in a very orderly fashion.

Cheers
Country Lad
 
VSntchr said:
Isn't this the guy who took is children to court?
Click to expand...

Sorry Valuesnatcher I can't answer that question. You might want to give him a call at head office and find out. I'm pretty sure he's there most days.

I'm primarily interested in what his company is up too and how it could benefit both myself and my children down the track.

Thanks Country

Cheers
Hosh
 
Might see some action coming into the Sept 6 rebalance.

JP Morgan has AGI as a high rating for entry into the all Australian 200 and a low rating for entry into S&P asx 200.

With the 4E in a couple of weeks it bodes well for the company if they can tweek the 41% increase in profit they have announced in the recent profit guidance.
 
hosh said:
Might see some action coming into the Sept 6 rebalance.

JP Morgan has AGI as a high rating for entry into the all Australian 200 and a low rating for entry into S&P asx 200.

With the 4E in a couple of weeks it bodes well for the company if they can tweek the 41% increase in profit they have announced in the recent profit guidance.
Click to expand...

Nice, ramped it up to 50% over the pcp and forcast at least 15% on the pcp for H1 FY 14

I'm liking the numbers
 
Outstanding,

What more can one say. Looking forward to the $5 hurdle to be cleared.

Not selling a single share.
 
The mother of all over hangs.

Len Ainsworth disposes 5,819,092 shares out of his 178,006,613!!!! shares.
Taking his stake from 56.1% to around 53.4%

Value direct $995,829.00 based on exercise price of.225c [per ordinary share)
Indirect $5,920,023.50
Shares were trading around $4.20 at the time and have hit a fairly solid roof between $3.40 and $4.50 for around a year.
The market has been aware that Len is offloading some.
After this first major sale the price has fallen to $3.60 a couple of brokers came in and have upgraded it to overweight and buy. Montgomery fund also likes it at these levels.
Given it has run up from 8c over the last 4 or so years it’s been simply unbelievable for what isn’t a mining company.
Despite the fact Len wants to reduce his stake, simply because he saved the thing during it’s difficulties and is just getting that money back off the table and has little to do with where it is likely to be going!

So worth building into once it bottoms out from this large holder selling in my opinion.
 
Interesting market response to a company reporting revenue, NPAT, EPS and DPS increases of 20%, a share price decrease of 10%.

I can't help but laugh when the focus is on missing analyst expectations rather than the result, any chance the analysts have no idea? AGI achieved exactly what I expected so maybe I am a better guesser.

The most impressive part of the result is the International revenue/profit increase of 37% which lifted the international revenue to 40% of the total. This has the potential to boost profits in the future when the $AUD reverts to a lower value.

Decided to add to my holdings as risk/reward on this now looks even more attractive.
 

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