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am starting to think it may be a good one to jump back into!!!good way to make some lost money in the near future
AFG - Allco Finance Group
- Thread starter 3 veiws of a secret
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I started buying down at 25 cents having to average down from buying around 9.
Very effeective averaging when you are all the way down there!
I think they will survive, I hope RJT trading halt is good news as this one had 3 loans to sort out.
They have to advise bank loan details before friday.
Very effeective averaging when you are all the way down there!
I think they will survive, I hope RJT trading halt is good news as this one had 3 loans to sort out.
They have to advise bank loan details before friday.
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As a general view on afg-
could i get some ideas on why their won't last vs why they will and why-
whats the general view on these loans they have-
Thanks
Nick--
could i get some ideas on why their won't last vs why they will and why-
whats the general view on these loans they have-
Thanks
Nick--
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did anyone see the course of sales on afg on Friday. When it closed is was at .46c but the close was recorded as .44c. When I looked at the course of sales several trades at .44c went through all at exactly the same time. What exactly does xtsp mean. I know this denotes the sale as cross trade but what exactly is that. Is this someone selling shares to themselves so they can manipulate the share price down?
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Cordelia, I would suggest that it is a movement from one company/ person to another company/ person. Its tax time of year in OZ so companies/ people are taking loss/ profit by moving stocks around.
AFG - Allco Finance Group: a good opportunity to buy the shares
Today, the share price dropped to $0.34. I think it is a good time to buy some shares. During the review period, AFG is trying to restructure its debts to meet the banks' requirement. However, I still believe it is worth buying. It will probably have three situations in the near future. 1) All the banks will be satisfied with its payment plan and will continue to support its business. As a result, the payment date of the senior loans ($800m) will be extended to next year and the bridge loan ($250m) will be renewed. This is an ideal situation. According to the latest announcement, the total amount of bank loans will reduce to $400m by the end of September of 2009. AFG will achieve the target by selling its non-core assets and maintaining its profit. 2) AFG has become the best takeover target in Australia based on the analysis of the Australian Financial Review. Up to now, It has been keeping good capacity of profit earning and good assets base. In the past seven years, the yearly net profit was increasing sharply (growth rate: about 100%!). If some companies are willing to take over AFG, the shareholders who bought the shares at the lower prices will obtain benefit from it. 3) The worst situation will be bankruptcy. If AFG goes to bankruptcy, the shareholders who bought the cheaper shares can also get back their investments. In the latest interim financial report, AFG's net asset (excluding intangible assets and goodwill) was around $2.3 per share. Thus, if considering the loss of selling non-core assets, I think the residual value should be more than $1.5 per share. The loss from intangible assets and goodwill written off ($1.47b)will not affect the benefit of shareholders. For example, I bought 10000 shares at $0.34, it is not doubtful that I will get back my investment if the residual value is $1.5. So, I believe it is a good decision to buy some shares at a low price. Good luck!
Today, the share price dropped to $0.34. I think it is a good time to buy some shares. During the review period, AFG is trying to restructure its debts to meet the banks' requirement. However, I still believe it is worth buying. It will probably have three situations in the near future. 1) All the banks will be satisfied with its payment plan and will continue to support its business. As a result, the payment date of the senior loans ($800m) will be extended to next year and the bridge loan ($250m) will be renewed. This is an ideal situation. According to the latest announcement, the total amount of bank loans will reduce to $400m by the end of September of 2009. AFG will achieve the target by selling its non-core assets and maintaining its profit. 2) AFG has become the best takeover target in Australia based on the analysis of the Australian Financial Review. Up to now, It has been keeping good capacity of profit earning and good assets base. In the past seven years, the yearly net profit was increasing sharply (growth rate: about 100%!). If some companies are willing to take over AFG, the shareholders who bought the shares at the lower prices will obtain benefit from it. 3) The worst situation will be bankruptcy. If AFG goes to bankruptcy, the shareholders who bought the cheaper shares can also get back their investments. In the latest interim financial report, AFG's net asset (excluding intangible assets and goodwill) was around $2.3 per share. Thus, if considering the loss of selling non-core assets, I think the residual value should be more than $1.5 per share. The loss from intangible assets and goodwill written off ($1.47b)will not affect the benefit of shareholders. For example, I bought 10000 shares at $0.34, it is not doubtful that I will get back my investment if the residual value is $1.5. So, I believe it is a good decision to buy some shares at a low price. Good luck!
damn, wish i had of listened to you guys when share price was 34 - 29c, jumped up 86 percent after the sale of assets today, and buying was quite strong too. Their debt reduction facility methods seem to already be working quite well and the market now seems to think so too. By July 08 they plan to have 675m debt to pay off, good reduction in such a short time from approx 1billion.
What are your thoughts for this company in the mid to long term, can we see a few dollars per share in the near future?
Marc
What are your thoughts for this company in the mid to long term, can we see a few dollars per share in the near future?
Marc
On Monday you will see their annaouncement that they should have reach a agreement with their banks. I would think that as their aim is 400mill debt by sept 09 they only have 225mill to go and over a year to get their. I think we shall see a revision in the amount of time it will take them to reach the 400 mill level to say xmas. Then they should get re rated and hopefully the market will see how quick they have worked to reduce their debt.
The only problem l see is that all stocks are now on a serious decline!!!
The only problem l see is that all stocks are now on a serious decline!!!
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Any holders of the debt notes AFGHA on here?
Was the last coupon payment recieved?
How much debt do we rank behind before we get paid out in the event of a liquidation?
kind regards
Was the last coupon payment recieved?
How much debt do we rank behind before we get paid out in the event of a liquidation?
kind regards
subaru69
Just keep swimming...
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AFG has gone to hell, but if they're looked at fresh they may be worth something. Selling off assets, recently price is up over 50% (fair enough 50% of nothing is not much if you're still holding).
I'm not an analyst, so is there anyone out therre willing to make a call?
I'm not an analyst, so is there anyone out therre willing to make a call?
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Big jump today from intraday lows. Volume is very low though, anyone know what's up in the backgroun ?
It would seem as if a reversal is in sight.....Volume was pretty good today with a nice close near the high.....
I have traded this stock a few times...it tends to take off quickly once it gets going...
Have to see what happens on Monday...
Floating Rate Notes - AFGHA
The price of these notes has fallen to $13.10 and I'm wondering whether it might be worth a speculative trade. The current coupon rate is 10.04% pa which I assume is on $100. So that would be a payment of $5.02/share in November. If I purchased $5000 worth of shares now I would buy 381 shares. So in November I would receive $1912.62 which is an extremely high yield.
Have I missed something in my calculations, and do you think Allco will still be trading in November and able to pay Notes holders? Theoretically it could drop by the price of the payment, but really, how much lower can it go (famous last words!).
The price of these notes has fallen to $13.10 and I'm wondering whether it might be worth a speculative trade. The current coupon rate is 10.04% pa which I assume is on $100. So that would be a payment of $5.02/share in November. If I purchased $5000 worth of shares now I would buy 381 shares. So in November I would receive $1912.62 which is an extremely high yield.
Have I missed something in my calculations, and do you think Allco will still be trading in November and able to pay Notes holders? Theoretically it could drop by the price of the payment, but really, how much lower can it go (famous last words!).
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AFGHA
These are unsecured floating notes with a maturity date of Nov 2017 and currently trading at around $12.50 on very small volume. The company historically has made 2 payments a year in Nov and May. Nov 07 payment was $4.33 and May 08 was 463.97.
The next payment is $5.11 (40% yield) with an ex date of 31 Oct 08 and a payment date of 17 Nov 08.
There are 3.5mil outstanding currently, so the total payable by the company is approx $18 mil.
Given the state of the Allco, the 2 biggest risks to these notes are:
1) the company goes broke, in which case the notes will most likely be worthless.
2) The company announces that it is not going to make the next interest payment. In which case the price of the notes will fall heavily.
Obviously, if the company stays afloat and continues to make payments, buyers will get 80% of their money back by May next year and from Nov 09, will be free carried for further payments until 2017.
Alternatively, some may look to buy now and sell into any increase in price just before the ex date.
It would be prudent to read up on the terms of issue prior to buying in.
These are unsecured floating notes with a maturity date of Nov 2017 and currently trading at around $12.50 on very small volume. The company historically has made 2 payments a year in Nov and May. Nov 07 payment was $4.33 and May 08 was 463.97.
The next payment is $5.11 (40% yield) with an ex date of 31 Oct 08 and a payment date of 17 Nov 08.
There are 3.5mil outstanding currently, so the total payable by the company is approx $18 mil.
Given the state of the Allco, the 2 biggest risks to these notes are:
1) the company goes broke, in which case the notes will most likely be worthless.
2) The company announces that it is not going to make the next interest payment. In which case the price of the notes will fall heavily.
Obviously, if the company stays afloat and continues to make payments, buyers will get 80% of their money back by May next year and from Nov 09, will be free carried for further payments until 2017.
Alternatively, some may look to buy now and sell into any increase in price just before the ex date.
It would be prudent to read up on the terms of issue prior to buying in.
Hasn't Allco put provisions away for these note interest? and how do you work out the interest rate for them? It is based on face value right? that means interest on $100, so an interest rate of 5.11% would be way below average i thought?
Thanks
Marc
Thanks
Marc
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Marc,
The interest rate is currently around 10% p.a. on a face value of $100.00, the $5.11 is the amount to be paid for this interest payment. Given that current buyers are only paying $12.50 for each note, that is a yeild of 40% on this payment and 80% for the year.
As for provisions, they may well make the payment, however in the current environment and given their current state, nothing is certain.
As I said before, IF all goes well, for an outlay of $12.50 you get yearly payments of around $10.00 and the $100.00 face value back in 2017. Though if all goes badly you may get nothing. Depends on your risk tolerance.
Obviously, for anyone who paid the original face value of $100.00 its not a good investment. However for those buying now at $12.50 (with a very high risk profile) it could be very profitable.
Not Holding.
Thanks for your comments. I'll need to think this one through before proceeding as there are certainly quite a few risks associated with it.
