AEV - Avenira Limited

Mackky · 2 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Au $$ keeps falling mak potential profit margin keep increasing.

Ipl presentation had the spot price for rock phosphate fob morocco at US$480/t, on the 4 sept. $480*1.2716=$610AU

Revenue at 3mt/y =1.83 billion.
And production will probably start in about a year and a half, as they seem to be on a mission to get the mine happening asap.

Has anyone ever seen a company that comes close to mak when you look at a ratio of capex to potential profits. Very important now funds will be harder to raise, there are just so many mining companies out there with quality deposits, of various minerals, that are basically sitting on there hands dreaming of how they will raise many hundreds of millions$$$. Mak is unique very low capex/massive potential earnings. I have never seen another company like it.

Sean K · 2 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Mackky said:
Au $$ keeps falling mak potential profit margin keep increasing.

Ipl presentation had the spot price for rock phosphate fob morocco at US$480/t, on the 4 sept. $480*1.2716=$610AU

Revenue at 3mt/y =1.83 billion.
And production will probably start in about a year and a half, as they seem to be on a mission to get the mine happening asap.

Has anyone ever seen a company that comes close to mak when you look at a ratio of capex to potential profits. Very important now funds will be harder to raise, there are just so many mining companies out there with quality deposits, of various minerals, that are basically sitting on there hands dreaming of how they will raise many hundreds of millions$$$. Mak is unique very low capex/massive potential earnings. I have never seen another company like it.

Mackky, if it`s so great, why do you think it`s so undervalued at the moment?

Other than galaxical financial implosion, anything else factored in to the sp to make it look like it`s trading at a rediculous discount?

kennas

eric35 · 2 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hard to say why MAK s/p is so low. I am holding MAk and intend to keep holding it. I believe that it has good potential. Once the credit market eases, they should be able to power ahead. Raising money in this market is very difficult.

doogie_goes_off · 2 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm not sure MAK is the economic miracle yet, their project requires rail or there's an awful lot of trucks needed to get that stuff out and I'd say that = high CAPEX or high OPEX and yes there's a freight advantage to final market if you can get up and running so it's a long wait for an indication for mining approvals and sit tight for me. There would undoubtedly need to be a capital raising, so if you get in, then you need to expect to put your hand in your pocket or get diluted. It' s a good long term proposition IMHO.

flipztacy · 2 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi All

Just wanted everyone thoughts around MAK compared to other smaller mining companies? In terms of potential/resources/projects. Is it more stable then other small caps out their? with regards to current economic conditions im expecting a lot of small mining companies to struggle.

Mackky · 2 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi Kennas

Yes, I feel it is very undervalued, I have been following mak for a long time and tend to take all info on-board.

Reasons/risks for the low price other than obvious.

-some people have doubts over transport logistics, however I am confident this is not an issue or transport experts (Bill Gibbins) would not be offering a transport solution at a set price.
-the need for pre-feasibility results, laying out clearly opex. I suspect pre-feas will cover various production models including a super low capex option using contract transport and mining. To give the project more certainty to the broader investment community independent opex estimates definitely will help. Suspect opex will be in the $90-120 range for the low capex fast startup option. This will be fine for the first few year but will need to be reduced though a rail link to tenant creek over the longer term.
-metallurgy-very important and results will be included in pre-feas. Early indication from the work rio did and what AD has said, indicate the rp is suitable to be used to produce fertilizer and has low levels of contaminates. However risk still exists. Metallurgy could well be the reason DSO will not go ahead. They should have a good bit of ore grading over 30% but it still might need sieving/washing to remove minor contaminates. I suspect if they ship any dso it will only be for the first few ship loads while the build the benefication plant.
-Phosphate price-Morrocco have a monopoly on exported rp. They have threatened to produce heaps more rp and crush the price back to $100/t. This has had a significant effect on the share price. Question is do you believe their propaganda? I don't. (will post something on this later if you are interested).
-Share price decline (downtrend), a lot of traders held this when it went 20c to $2+, most have now sold this hasn't help the share price. Mak has attracted a lot of traders(bots etc) who don't appreciate the underling fundamentals, this also hasn't done the share price any favours. Hopefully mak is attracting more long term holders to the register (who have done their research and appreciate what mak has) and next time it goes up it will be a bit slow and sustained.
I keep looking but can't see any reason atm mak won't succeed and be potentially massively profitable. Yes there are risks but atm they don't look significant. Nothing is ever certain though.
Can you let me know where you see risks in mak not succeeding, as I would like to discuss them.
Cheers

Mackky · 2 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

doogie_goes_off said:
I'm not sure MAK is the economic miracle yet, their project requires rail or there's an awful lot of trucks needed to get that stuff out and I'd say that = high CAPEX or high OPEX and yes there's a freight advantage to final market if you can get up and running so it's a long wait for an indication for mining approvals and sit tight for me. There would undoubtedly need to be a capital raising, so if you get in, then you need to expect to put your hand in your pocket or get diluted. It' s a good long term proposition IMHO.

Mak has been offered a transport package from an independent consortium (ore from mine to ship holds). AD has stated this is inline with transport cost expectations. If mak decide to go down this route(i suspect they will), they will have no capex requirement for transport. They are also considering using contract mining. Mak will have to build a benefication plant(mostly likely a seizing/washing operation), on site accommodation facilitates, and supporting infrastructure. Capex could well be as low as $20million(20-50million range), I suspect this will be funded by a bank loan or forward sales. (as it could well be paid back after the first couple of ship loads). Management know how to make $$ go a long way and are keen to protect their significant holding against dilution. Don't look to be any problems getting environmental/mining approvals as they don't have to go though a community consultation process(all being handled in house). The government seems as keen to fast track this project as mak and get their hand on the massive royalties.

Mackky · 2 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

"seizing" should read sieving(or screening), spell checker and small fonts problem.

Just noticed mak will be presenting at the Mining the Territory Conference. Wish I was in the nt and could go.

EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
14 -15 October 2008, Darwin Convention Centre

https://www.ibc-asia.com/iiroz/marl...EntityId=10044056766&entHash=254b3bcc0#DayOne

champ2003 · 2 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
Mackky, if it`s so great, why do you think it`s so undervalued at the moment?

Other than galaxical financial implosion, anything else factored in to the sp to make it look like it`s trading at a rediculous discount?

kennas

Because the market just doesn't get it yet IMO kennas.

Won't be long though. Just need a couple more boxes ticked and up she goes from here IMO.

Cheers!

Champ

Sean K · 3 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Mackky said:
Hi Kennas

Yes, I feel it is very undervalued, I have been following mak for a long time and tend to take all info on-board.

Reasons/risks for the low price other than obvious.

-some people have doubts over transport logistics, however I am confident this is not an issue or transport experts (Bill Gibbins) would not be offering a transport solution at a set price.
-the need for pre-feasibility results, laying out clearly opex. I suspect pre-feas will cover various production models including a super low capex option using contract transport and mining. To give the project more certainty to the broader investment community independent opex estimates definitely will help. Suspect opex will be in the $90-120 range for the low capex fast startup option. This will be fine for the first few year but will need to be reduced though a rail link to tenant creek over the longer term.
-metallurgy-very important and results will be included in pre-feas. Early indication from the work rio did and what AD has said, indicate the rp is suitable to be used to produce fertilizer and has low levels of contaminates. However risk still exists. Metallurgy could well be the reason DSO will not go ahead. They should have a good bit of ore grading over 30% but it still might need sieving/washing to remove minor contaminates. I suspect if they ship any dso it will only be for the first few ship loads while the build the benefication plant.
-Phosphate price-Morrocco have a monopoly on exported rp. They have threatened to produce heaps more rp and crush the price back to $100/t. This has had a significant effect on the share price. Question is do you believe their propaganda? I don't. (will post something on this later if you are interested).
-Share price decline (downtrend), a lot of traders held this when it went 20c to $2+, most have now sold this hasn't help the share price. Mak has attracted a lot of traders(bots etc) who don't appreciate the underling fundamentals, this also hasn't done the share price any favours. Hopefully mak is attracting more long term holders to the register (who have done their research and appreciate what mak has) and next time it goes up it will be a bit slow and sustained.
I keep looking but can't see any reason atm mak won't succeed and be potentially massively profitable. Yes there are risks but atm they don't look significant. Nothing is ever certain though.
Can you let me know where you see risks in mak not succeeding, as I would like to discuss them.
Cheers

Some good points there Mackky. Main risks to the project are Opex and RP price probably. If one goes to upside risk while the other down it could put it into question, but that is all to be revealed. It`s an ongoing argument from the punters to the actualy future numbers. I am pretty confident it will remain economic in that regard, but I`m just a mug punter...The only institution to do a review thinks it`s a goer with a nice price target to the current, but they get it wrong at least occasionally...

So, if it`s pretty sure to be economic I agree with Champ that the market doesn`t get it yet. But I think this is tied to appetite for risk in the general market conditions, and this is zip at the moment. Perhaps if the dust ever settles, people will start putting their cash back into explorers. Just when that happens is anyones guess right now.

The US just is not helping by bailing out the billionaires.....

flipztacy · 6 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi All

Notices their two orders in the market detail for x2 400k orders at 10cent.. any ideas ??

cheers

eric35 · 6 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Maybe somebody put the wrong price in? Or hopes to get lucky. Who knows

MAK, as well as everything else, dropped huge again.

Dezza · 6 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Trying to prop up the buy side? If so, probably doing more harm than good.

Otherwise, maybe it's a wishful bid? Gotta be in it to win and you never know in a market like this. Might be filled by the end of the week! :

flipztacy · 8 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK seem to been battered today? is anyone still confident about this share bouncing back to $1 range??

noident · 8 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

flipztacy said:
is anyone still confident about this share bouncing back to $1 range??

Confident is probably not the word that should be applied to MAK at best of times. The stock has been known to defy gravity though. There's always hope .

Sean K · 9 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

flipztacy said:
MAK seem to been battered today? is anyone still confident about this share bouncing back to $1 range??

Everyone is hostage to the current market conditions and the only stocks likely to go OK in theory are low cost gold producers, if the gold rally actually eventuates. When (if) the overall market finds a bottom and there's some stability foun I'm still confident in it, but have pointed out the unknowns in regard to Opex and future RP price.

Tang · 10 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Thinking about averaging down on MAK now. Its taken a big hit this week. Any other news floating around about this company?

adamim1 · 10 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Mak was around the 44c mark today.. though not for too long.

With the potential of MAK, i think it is a bargain at 50c. It is just getting hit like every other company. Remember nothing has really changed about MAK since it was sitting up close the $3

Sean K · 10 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

No more news really recently.

Revised JORCs for the Main Zone and initial JORC for Aruwarra imminent.

Initial pluck at Opex looks to be somewhere between $100 and $150, so require RP to stay above $200 and more than $250 would create revenue of at least $100 a tn and at 3Mt pa = $300m less tax and royalties etc. Extrapolate for more or less bearish bullish perceptions...

Yes, been punished with the market but more so because of risks, but maybe too much as Capex is going to be pretty low and should be gained from instos and the market even in this environment, if it looks long term economic.

Specs and explorers haven't had a good 6 months.....

champ2003 · 11 October 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
No more news really recently.

Revised JORCs for the Main Zone and initial JORC for Aruwarra imminent.

Initial pluck at Opex looks to be somewhere between $100 and $150, so require RP to stay above $200 and more than $250 would create revenue of at least $100 a tn and at 3Mt pa = $300m less tax and royalties etc. Extrapolate for more or less bearish bullish perceptions...

Yes, been punished with the market but more so because of risks, but maybe too much as Capex is going to be pretty low and should be gained from instos and the market even in this environment, if it looks long term economic.

Specs and explorers haven't had a good 6 months.....

Hi Kennas,

It's also important to state AU or US as that makes a huge difference. For example OPEX should be around AU$125 in my opinion as that is what AD is leaning towards in saying low AU$100 dollars and he has stated numerous times that it is in line with his initial expectations.

Also note that at US$200 Rock phosphate that when coverted to the Aussie is AU$310 so that's still a whopping AU$185 profit margin which would mean a pre tax profit of AU$555 Million.

We have to consider that the price of RP is still around US$450 though so I'd hate to try crunching those numbers as it's just way too good and in this current economic climate i'd be chucked off the roof of the tallest building.

I also recieved an email from AD yesterday stating that there is nothing negative that he needs to inform us with MAK and that the recent plunge in share price was purely due to the market crash that has taken place. Next week we have alot of news coming out as well so that will be interesting to read.

Yesterdays BRR interview also sounded encouraging.

Cheers!

Champ

AEV - Avenira Limited

Mackky

Sean K

Moderator

eric35

doogie_goes_off

disbelieve if you can

flipztacy

Mackky

Mackky

Mackky

champ2003

Sean K

Moderator

flipztacy

eric35

Dezza

flipztacy

noident

Sean K

Moderator

Tang

adamim1

Sean K

Moderator

champ2003

Similar threads

AEV - Avenira Limited

Moderator

disbelieve if you can

Moderator

Moderator

Moderator

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency