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ADY - Admiralty Resources

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The new update seems to tell more truth and realities than all the previous ones. At least, from a more realistic standingpoint, they let investors know what actual progresses that they made and what the difficulties that they face. This can avoid boosting too high expectation from the investors. This is also a good improvement from the management. Hope they can keep this style in the future.
 
anyone has any ideas on the SP fast rise in these two days? Any good news coming? Or else? I am considering if i need to buy more.
 
gxshen said:
anyone has any ideas on the SP fast rise in these two days? Any good news coming? Or else? I am considering if i need to buy more.
Click to expand...

Looks like a dead cat bounce to me as the volume is really small. You need 50mill plus volume for confirmation to confidently buy this pup.

I hold but won't touch this again when I get out as it is too dangerous with their cash strap position. The fact these contracts just don't get signed means something is missing behind the scenes.

Avoid in my view. I will be looking for an exit door around 16 cents which is previous support.
 
Sell off was on relatively low volume too...
I think your logic is a bit flawed there, lioness. If contracts don't get signed then the price probably won't reach 16 cents. If they do get signed, then the cash flow is no longer a short-term concern and the share price may get a good boost beyond 16 cents.
 
It looks like some interest is returning in ADY in the past couple of trading days, and volume is picking up. I've noticed in the past that ADY can be a bit leaky when it comes to market announcements so hopefully early signs of positive news to come soon.
 

I wonder, did you get out at all? Considering it went to 16.5, and back down to 15.5 today. Time will tell whether that is a good decision or not. I guess if you can't take the risk get out. This stock was never about sure money, but if everything comes out ok has the potential to boom quite high. High risk/high return profile. You can always come in when the risk subsides and still have exposure to it, albeit at a lower return (price will move a little by then).
 
Anyone care to comment on below web alert
Have been a very long holder of ADY if this is about them. ?



Ultrabulk S.A. v. Admiralty Resources NL - 1:2008cv07622 - Justia ...
Aug 28, 2008 ... Justia Federal Filings - New York Southern District Court - Contract - Marine - Ultrabulk SA v. Admiralty Resources NL.
 

Dunno. I've just emailed ADY to see what's going on. I'll update here if I get any joy in response. Doesn't seem to be any further info available for the docket.
 
MS+Tradesim said:
Dunno. I've just emailed ADY to see what's going on. I'll update here if I get any joy in response. Doesn't seem to be any further info available for the docket.
Click to expand...

Hmmm... given that Santa Fe missed delivery of some 410,000 Tonnes, one could guess that Ultrabulk were contracted to transport the missing tonnes, missed out on the shipment(s), and is having a go for breach of contract... Adds another dimension to the legal actions against Besalco/Santa Fe. Getting very messy...
 
Removed names. Here is the reply I received from ADY:

"Dear XXXX,

Thank you for your email.

We haven’t been, formally or informally, advised that Ultrabulk has filed a court case against Admiralty.

Admiralty entered into a charter party contract with Ultrabulk S.A. for our last shipment, the Abkhazia.

The ship has not yet arrived to port and the freight has been paid for. Therefore, there are no evident reasons for ADY to understand why they would file a court case.

Kind regards,

XXXX"
 
Interesting reply
Hmmm.................................. no longer holding ADY

See what happens over the next few months ????
 
This stock has almost lost 50% of its value in two weeks. What is happening? Is this just the general market sentiment or something more related to this stock.

They have to announce many things, maybe they are weighting for a suitable time?
 
Looks like some people closed their shorts on ADY today ; up about 35% on nice volume. Sheer momentum could lift this a bit further tomorrow. News should be out soon on paying back the loan. Looks like the punters expect it to be good news.
 
After the second market announcement today I think management have a bit more explaining to do. In fact they're now admitting that the court decision was known by them before yesterday, yet they waited until today to inform the market, while saying 'we know nothing' in their original response to the ASX. WTF!
 
I think if the court was held openly, then that decision should have been known to may people attending the court, or could have easily asked the registrar for the outcome.

Having said that administration is obviously not doing a great job shown by the share price..
 

I'm not sure if the court decision was 'material' as it changes nothing. The loan is due on or before the 30/9/08. The court affirmed that is the case. Had the court found against ADY and awarded, say interest, costs and damages to Hawkswood then that decision would, IMO, be 'material' to the share price.

IMO, the run up was simply self-reinforcing and momentum driven - as Soros would say, it is reflexive. The market acts, sees itself acting, and acts again. Just my opinion.
 
Yep, that's a good point MS. However they could have at least made reference to the court decision as a possible explanation of what happened to the shareprice yesterday, and then provided the rationale you used to exonerate themselves. They already had some bad press recently about their disclosure practices, and this will only add fuel to the fire: rightly or wrongly.
 
Well apparently ADY has fallen for the credit crunch, they have renegotiated their loan for a measly 37% p.a

Lets see what happens next, at least they get some breathing space for 3 months. Tough time for holders of this stock I guess.
 
From their annual report it appears that they have already secured 5 million from one credit provider, and awaiting internal approval for another 5 million convertible note to be received before the end of October. Debt has indeed become very expensive, but not much that can be done about that now. So from a cashflow perspective they look to be safe for another 3 months. A lot can happen in that time. At a minimum they need:
1) A signed contract for offtake of iron ore and attached letter of credit
2) Make a decision on their tender for the Lithium offtake and prepayment.
If they can get that over the line in the next 3 months than things should turn around (and hopefully boost the shareprice).
Not too much to ask for. So Phil Thomas: show us why you deserverved a 500K salary this year!
 
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