ADY - Admiralty Resources

MS+Tradesim said:

If you're going to make sensationalist downramping claims, perhaps you should provide support for your view, otherwise best not to comment.

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yes beware of downrampers..ask yourself this:
"who is buying all those shares being sold"

pays to think outside the square sometimes....

petermikel said:

Is it true that the shortsellers are about finished and a short squeese may be about to occur.
Should ADY receive the funding as it suggests it will this will most deffinately be the catylist for a sharp move higher

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Is ADY even shortable?

I'd be surprised if it was. There is no way this has been pushed down by short sellers.

I love how everytime a stock is sold down now it's due to short sellers.

cordelia said:

yes beware of downrampers..ask yourself this:
"who is buying all those shares being sold"

pays to think outside the square sometimes....

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Who

people who are currently losing money---this MAY change and ADY---MAY become a casualty

nomore4s said:

Is ADY even shortable?

I'd be surprised if it was. There is no way this has been pushed down by short sellers.

I love how everytime a stock is sold down now it's due to short sellers.

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No Its not short able.

Its a stupid argument (The one about short sellers,on any stock)
At some time shorts need to be covered so they catapult a stock reversal.

Dont trade like novices,buying on HOPE!

rub92me said:

Care to explain how share price movement is related to receivership? They must have been bankrupt 2 years ago then, when shareprice was lower than this . Demerger has even less to do with their prospects. They can only spin-off the Lihium once they have secured a prepayment contract, which hasn't happened yet. Reasons for that have been explained in detail by ADY management in previous announcements.

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Rubme,

Where does it state they need the prepayment contract before allowing for the spin off to occur?? I cannot read that into any of their announcements.

As for the aggressive selling going on every day, who know whats happening here. Either someone buying on the other side or someone big offloading who has had enough of many bubbles that Phil keeps blowing.

Either way, a very depressing share price where a lot of investors are losing money at the moment.

Bigger question is can this ever recover or does it stay this low for years??????????????????

nomore4s said:

Is ADY even shortable?

I'd be surprised if it was. There is no way this has been pushed down by short sellers.

I love how everytime a stock is sold down now it's due to short sellers.

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ADY is on the ASX list of approved short sale products...Here is the link:

http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

The list details the reported short sales together with the limit and percentage

I am not suggesting ADY is being shorted......I wouldn't know

List of Approved Short Sale Products and Approved Short Sale ETFs
Including net Short Sale positions as at end of day 18-Aug-2008


ASX Company Name ..... Reported Short ..... Short Sell Limit ..... %

ADY ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL. ..... 1,206 ..... 113,345,784 ..... .00

No stock held.

MR. said:

List of Approved Short Sale Products and Approved Short Sale ETFs
Including net Short Sale positions as at end of day 18-Aug-2008


ASX Company Name ..... Reported Short ..... Short Sell Limit ..... %

ADY ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL. ..... 1,206 ..... 113,345,784 ..... .00

No stock held.

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So if I'm reading this correctly there are only 1206 shares currently short sold?

Hardly enough to cause a short covering rally

nomore4s said:

So if I'm reading this correctly there are only 1206 shares currently short sold?

Hardly enough to cause a short covering rally

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I might add that borrowed stock is probably not in this tally. The ASX only reports on 'naked short sales' btw.

I do think the company has some short positions. I know retail investors can short with some brokers (e.g CFD's which are usually hedged by the broker).

I do agree though. I actually think the people doing the selling are well, us retail investors. The lower prices go, the more retailers tend to sell (where normally lower prices encourage buyers). That assumes of course that nothing is really suss with the company of course behind the scenes.

lioness said:

Rubme,

Where does it state they need the prepayment contract before allowing for the spin off to occur?? I cannot read that into any of their announcements.

As for the aggressive selling going on every day, who know whats happening here. Either someone buying on the other side or someone big offloading who has had enough of many bubbles that Phil keeps blowing.

Either way, a very depressing share price where a lot of investors are losing money at the moment.

Bigger question is can this ever recover or does it stay this low for years??????????????????

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Page 4 of their most recent investor presentation titled Demerger, last bullet: "RLL funding to come from Pre-sales agreement and note issue" .
I take that to mean that they won't proceed until they've got the pre-sales agreement in the bag.
I too find the recent slide in the share price disappointing. It is however still above the price at which I originally bought. And I still have confidence in the future of ADY. If things start falling into place in the next couple of months I'd be surprised if the shareprice wouldn't appreciate significantly. If they take longer, then I'll wait longer.

rub92me said:

I too find the recent slide in the share price disappointing. It is however still above the price at which I originally bought. And I still have confidence in the future of ADY. If things start falling into place in the next couple of months I'd be surprised if the shareprice wouldn't appreciate significantly. If they take longer, then I'll wait longer.

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They haven't been down this low for over 18 months! Did you just hang on to them all this time...that's confidence...and patience....

aleckara said:

I might add that borrowed stock is probably not in this tally. The ASX only reports on 'naked short sales' btw.

I do think the company has some short positions. I know retail investors can short with some brokers (e.g CFD's which are usually hedged by the broker).

I do agree though. I actually think the people doing the selling are well, us retail investors. The lower prices go, the more retailers tend to sell (where normally lower prices encourage buyers). That assumes of course that nothing is really suss with the company of course behind the scenes.

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Here's an excerpt from an article which may clarify the confusion:


http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Naked-shorting-a-myth-E5RGB?OpenDocument

cordelia said:

They haven't been down this low for over 18 months! Did you just hang on to them all this time...that's confidence...and patience....

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Yep, just check back far enough in this thread and you'll see. I have traded smaller parcels in between, but kept my core holding. I'm very patient. I could be wrong though :

rub92me said:

Yep, just check back far enough in this thread and you'll see. I have traded smaller parcels in between, but kept my core holding. I'm very patient. I could be wrong though :

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Rubme,

Seeing you re so patient, do you mind outlaying what you see in the future of ADY, where it is heading in value and why. Please explain your reason why you still think it is a great long term hold given their cash strapped position and management failures of constantly over promising and never delivering on time. We are still waiting for contracts, demerger etc etc

Fact #1 - unless there are some insiders around, then no one knows more than anyone else with what is going on with ADY

Fact #2 - the share market is in a total mess at the moment and ADY is not the only stock not performing - in fact I would say that they are holding up better than others that should be doing better

ADY's resources haven't changed, the lithium, potash and iron ore are still there. In fact the resource value has increased since we started on thus journey.

Don't under estimate the negative effect that the site TopStocks has on the SP with all the whinging that goes on over there. Remember that the ADY website has a direct link to TopStocks and anyone doing research on ADY will come across the negativity from the forum

China, as we all know, are currently totally blinkered with the Olympic games and nothing is going to happen until after the games.

My suggestion is that we all be patient, let the SP flop around and worry about something else.

rub92me said:

Yep, just check back far enough in this thread and you'll see. I have traded smaller parcels in between, but kept my core holding. I'm very patient. I could be wrong though :

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oh well that makes more sense..... well good luck i hope all your patience and committment pays off

roland said:

Fact #1 - unless there are some insiders around, then no one knows more than anyone else with what is going on with ADY

Fact #2 - the share market is in a total mess at the moment and ADY is not the only stock not performing - in fact I would say that they are holding up better than others that should be doing better

ADY's resources haven't changed, the lithium, potash and iron ore are still there. In fact the resource value has increased since we started on thus journey.

Don't under estimate the negative effect that the site TopStocks has on the SP with all the whinging that goes on over there. Remember that the ADY website has a direct link to TopStocks and anyone doing research on ADY will come across the negativity from the forum

China, as we all know, are currently totally blinkered with the Olympic games and nothing is going to happen until after the games.

My suggestion is that we all be patient, let the SP flop around and worry about something else.

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I have to agree with most of the above. I do think the Topstocks forum has done a lot of damage to the SP. The downs have been on comparatively low volume to me and I've noticed it doesn't take much selling to lower the price. The buyers aren't there (instro's are not interested in small stock like ADY a lot of the time and retailers are not knowing where the bottom is).

lioness said:

Rubme,

Seeing you re so patient, do you mind outlaying what you see in the future of ADY, where it is heading in value and why. Please explain your reason why you still think it is a great long term hold given their cash strapped position and management failures of constantly over promising and never delivering on time. We are still waiting for contracts, demerger etc etc

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Basically I see tremendous potential for ADY to become 2 great companies.
They are no more 'cash strapped' than they were 2 years ago.
I think ADY is learning the hard way what it is like to a) Do business in South America and b) Dealing with the Chinese. On a) they have been taken for a ride by sub-contractors and partners that didn't deliver. Lots of should've / could've in that story, but let's hope they've learned their lesson from that. With a bit of luck they'll get some damages back. On b) management have been too optimistic in their expectations and projections of being able to negotiate long term deals. I think it is still moving in the right direction though. Something good has to happen in the next 4-6 weeks. Here's hoping that it will.

aleckara said:

I have to agree with most of the above. I do think the Topstocks forum has done a lot of damage to the SP. The downs have been on comparatively low volume to me and I've noticed it doesn't take much selling to lower the price. The buyers aren't there (instro's are not interested in small stock like ADY a lot of the time and retailers are not knowing where the bottom is).

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You can speculate till the cows come home but if you care to look it's all there....It's actually tragic how many people believe what they read, not only in forums such as these, but also in the newspaper......

The Internet is a cesspool of rumour, trickery and lies constructed by those who feel strong hiding behind a screen......If you really take that acronym seriously, DYOR, find out what it really means....

Let's face it, how can a share price change so dramatically over a few days when the fundamentals are pretty much the same? It's all based on rumour and lies..Try to read between the lines....and stay clear of the stampede

i don't hold ADY but I have been following the stock for sometime....

It seems that 10 cents would be the bottom in the current stage. Whether SP will rise depends on whether they can have real progresses in their projects and in the deals with Chinese steel companies.

Release Time IMMEDIATE
Date 20 August 2008
Rincon Salar Project Update

HIGHLIGHTS
• Contracts signed for 15,000 tonne per annum high grade sodium sulphate plant
• Second batch of lithium brine completed producing 40 tonnes of final brine ready to be
crystallised. Ponds will be refilled in two weeks.
• Commercial viability of potassium sulphate being investigated

The Board of Directors are delighted to report that we have signed a contract and paid a deposit to HPD, an American engineering company specialising in crystallisation and evaporation of salt brines, which is a fully owned subsidiary of Veolia, to build a sodium sulphate purification plant capable of producing 2 tonnes per hour of detergent grade sodium
sulphate (99.1%). The plant will be constructed in Spain, over a period of ten months. The construction cost is 1.5m euros.

Argentina imports 70,000 tonnes per annum of sodium sulphate at an FOB cost of US$275 according to the latest customs figures. Brazil imports 250,000 tonnes per year at a similar price. Other net importer is Chile. We are having detailed discussions with two buyers interested to acquire all the production.

For the lithium operation we are producing 140,000 tonnes per annum of low grade material ideal for the lithium production process. The Rio Grande mine is fully operational producing 10,000 tonnes of sodium sulphate every two weeks.

As a byproduct of the lithium process, substantial amounts of potassium sulphate (Sulphate of Potash) are being produced at very low cost. We have decided to pursue this opportunity and become a commercial provider as soon as we can negotiate a take off contract. Work is continuing on the potash production development.

Lithium Production
The second batch of lithium brine has been produced and when the large centrifuge is delivered and installed, we will commence crystallisation of the lithium brine and produce final 99.0+% lithium carbonate product. At present we are using small centrifuges capable of only ten kilo batches. The technical team are very pleased at the small losses of lithium incurred as the brine is purified.

Share Price Weakness
The Admiralty share price has declined over the past weeks and many shareholders have expressed their concern. The Directors and senior management are implementing all our strategies and working with our bankers, clients and contractors to achieve our objectives as
soon as is practical. Some of these arrangements are complex and are resource and time intensive.

In particular, preparations are in place to repay the Hawkswood and YA Global Investment debts when they fall due. The US$200m debt facility being developed by our investment bankers is not a converting note, but senior debt secured by the Company. The due diligence process is going extremely well. The demerger is independent of any financing as each entity
has sufficient assets and its own project financing opportunities.

The debt owed to Admiralty by Cia Minera Santa Barbara is US$39.95 million which is due to be repaid on 18 February 2009. This debt is controlled by the Japonesa Master Agreement, loan and fixed charge documents.

The SBLC security being offered by our iron ore clients enabling us to drawdown a $40m facility from our (and their) bankers is being progressed on a daily basis. None of our financing arrangements are subject to the share price being at any particular level. The main observation is that it is unlikely that the only converting note holder able to convert of the next
months will do so when the share price is substantially below the conversion price of 17.5 cents.

Yours sincerely,
Phillip Thomas
Managing Director