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ADI - Adelphi Energy

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I'm a believer in the longterm of ADI so happy holding but I also think that December is a long way off. Given that both NT & SL are well advanced (SL primaries already out of the way obviously) I would be expecting some action by Sept at the latest. That's 6mths from now... what do you reckon?
 
The trouble i have with yogis prediction is that if sugarloaf fraccing is successful it will be a BIG positive (SP above $1) and if the fraccing turns up nothing it will be a BIG negative (SP below 30c)...either of these swings should happen well before Dec. I also beleive that the SP changing from being in the 90c range down to the 50c range is a little more than a minor and difficult cycle as the SP has almost halved....
 
Agentm said:
i feel we have a lot of reasons to believe the sp will be booming way before dec 07..
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Yes yes, but you were saying the same thing when the SP was almost double what it is now.

A lot of punters have lost money on this one, so any positive news on NT will be more of an excuse to get out of long positions rather than propel the SP into blue sky.

The bounce off support at 50c has been rather pathetic, so I would not be surprised to see this in the low 40s or at long term support in the 30s.

Total lack of information (and don't give us the BS about "reading between the lines" etc, it just shows total disrespect to the shareholders). Big delays, and a lot of people having been burnt in the past don't bode well for the immediate future of this stock. What confidence would you actually have putting your money on this one? I'd prefer to put money into companies that actually HAVE reserves and are undervalued, rather than hyped companies that couldn't care less about their shareholders being kept in the dark.
 

I agree with this. The immediate future of ADI depends entirely on NT and Sugarloaf and their results should be known very soon. However the "blue sky" will not be reached until the production has been proved and this may take until the end of the year. So both predictions may be right.
 

I don't agree with you that the company has hyped its announcements, sure it has kept the market in the dark which is frustrating but if anything they are extremely cautious rather than bullish with their news.
 
Broadside said:
I don't agree with you that the company has hyped its announcements, sure it has kept the market in the dark which is frustrating but if anything they are extremely cautious rather than bullish with their news.
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I was referring to hyped here and obviously on other stock forums. Certainly not from the announcements.
 
NT looks still to have reasons to continue on and wireline and perhaps frac and test..

I know like everyone that SL had a lot of speculation in Dec when the primary neared, i certainly accumulated more then, and today the sp is way under what i paid, no complaints from me, i took the risk and would have enjoyed spectacular results like everyone if the primary did produce commercial flow on this well..

The secondaries were a primary motivation for me to invest, i have remained in and like others am looking at topping up should the sp decrease much more.. I have no problem with adi and its short or long term future.
 
hey chops..

your right about the sp, with NT success a great deal of people would possibly jump, so i think that senario would certainly be on the minds with any late holders who went in at the last minute for the primary..

i dont know if thats your position or not, but its really important to understand the nature of the business in texas on wells. they dont disclose anything..

ADi has in my view tried to give its holders some clues on the secondaries, indicating 2 wells and also ARQ stating it was commercial. that happened very shortly after the wirelines, then we hear nothing.

if you read this forum and the other you will find a great deal of positive attitude towards adi. i see the secondaries as being the best reason to stay in the share, i notice all the long term holders have stayed, and many like me were in at far better prices also than todays, none of the directors have sold, and all major holders accross all the JVP's have held. my decision to stay is also based of factors such as management, the movement of the top 20 holders, and also my own research.

i understand some holders are frustrated with the lack of news, and its up to each and every holder to deal with it what ever way they want..

yep i wanted to be on bendigo mining for the last 3 weeks and didnt in spite of a 40% increase in the sp,, i have my reasons to hold, and each seller today has their reasons to sell.. we all do our own research and have our opinions, and yours are valid..

the JVP's have made no announcements that really give any signs on the secondaries, yet if you look at quarterlies, and presentations and broker reports you see an completely different story..

lets just say i back the ones who are staying put.. so i stay, and others are also and to a certain degree there is an exodus in smaller numbers..

good luck to all sellers and to all those who have recently purchased, good luck also..
 
Good news for NT. They have stablised the well and yanked the string. Potential pay zones in both lower and upper sections. Testing yet to be announced...
 
NEW TAITON WELL LOG RESULTS ​
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]As of this morning WA time, casing operations at the Ilse-1 well are now complete, with a 5 inch liner cementing to the total depth of approximately 17,000 feet (5,183 metres). [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Since the most recent update last week, the well was able to be stabilised and the drill string pulled out of the hole followed by the acquisition of wire line logs. [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Preliminary log interpretation indicates a number of potential zones of interest with interpreted hydrocarbon bearing sands totalling between approximately 10 and 50 feet in the Lower Wilcox section and other potential gas/condensate bearing sands further up the hole in the Upper Wilcox. A decision as to which zones will be tested will be made once log analysis is complete. [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Due to the nature of the over pressured formations at total depth and for safety considerations, the decision was made not to attempt to drill deeper in this well. [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]The scope and timing of the testing programme is yet to be determined but will be announced as soon as agreed by the joint venture. [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Adelphi’s Executive Chairman, Alex Forcke, commented: [/FONT]​
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]"The interpreted pay zones from this well have the potential to lead to commercial production in a relatively short order given the close proximity of our well to existing gas processing and export infrastructure in the New Taiton area. This however is still subject to the successful testing of this well which will also give us a better understanding of the volume of reserves that may be present in this discovery." [/FONT]



[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]the way i see it... they announced 70 feet of elevated gas readings in the upper zone.. and now say its: potential gas/condensate bearing sands further up the hole in the Upper Wilcox.[/FONT]

[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]CONDENSATE!!! yes please!![/FONT]


[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]and as for the lower wilcox, the second primary, last week they announced they were 300 feet short on the drill, so they are only just into the play and they have announced today in the lower play: Preliminary log interpretation indicates a number of potential zones of interest with interpreted hydrocarbon bearing sands totalling between approximately 10 and 50 feet in the Lower Wilcox section [/FONT]


[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]so we have 300 feet of unknown territory and whole lot of great stuff already..[/FONT]

[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]i would say extremely positive news... oil is always a nice thing!!![/FONT]
 
well agentm you must be wetting yourself over the price rise this morning ......and aint nobody selling neither!!
 
not really, the sp has been way above this level, and as far as i am concerned the current price is absolutely nothing like it will be is a few months when the chalks are announced..
 
Yeah I don't think anyone will be 'wetting themselves' after being in the 90c area not long ago.

Was looking at the ADI historical charts this morning and couldn't help noticing the volumes being traded. There were large & sustained volumes traded between Oct06-Jan07 but now even though the sp has tanked in March the volumes have been relatively low. This says to me that the majority are holding and waiting for NT & SL secondaries. Of course if either or both NT/SL disappoint that volume will be unloaded and we will really see a dive but there is certainly some confidence still in the stock otherwise the big dive would have already happened. Just my opinion of course.
 
the two most interesting thing i can see today is that they had great shows, and couldnt finish off the 300 feet they were planning on, so the second and lower primary has shows and is not completed..

the fact they have detected condensate/oil in the upper primary makes me very interested,, i didnt realise they had oil on the radar, just gas.. nice little bonus..

it seems the market likes the news, and i imagine having some further success on the drill bit after the chalks makes it potentially 2 out of 2.

the NT play is on a very productive and well researched wilcox zone. its fair to say that from a wireline they can get extremely good data that can be cross referenced to thousands of wells, then initial indications of reserves and flow rates and the like are usually fairly well concluded from the logs and most fracing programs afterwards get close to the indications they can get from the logs..

alex sounded pretty upbeat in his comments.. i guess we can assume the logs are reading well..
 
Aussie juniors find gas deep in heart of Texas

Good press.:bigun2:

"Aussie juniors find gas deep in heart of Texas

Tuesday, 27 March 2007

CASING operations are now complete at the Ilse-1 deep gas well in the New Taiton prospect in Texas. Preliminary logs indicate several zones that could have commercial volumes of hydrocarbons, according to the project's two Australian partners, Antares Energy and Adelphi Energy.


The two Perth-headquartered juniors said five-inch liner had been cemented to the total depth of about 17,000 feet (5183m). Due to the nature of the over-pressured formations at total depth and for safety considerations, the decision was made not to attempt to drill deeper.

"Preliminary log interpretation indicates a number of potential zones of interest with interpreted hydrocarbon-bearing sands totalling between approximately 10 and 50 feet in the Lower Wilcox section and other potential gas/condensate bearing sands further up the hole in the Upper Wilcox," the two companies said in a statement.

"The interpreted pay zones from this well have the potential to lead to commercial production in a relatively short order, given the close proximity of our well to existing gas processing and export infrastructure in the New Taiton area.

"This, however, is still subject to the successful testing of this well, which will also give us a better understanding of the volume of reserves that may be present in this discovery."

A decision as to which zones will be tested will be made once log analysis is complete. The scope and timing of the testing program is yet to be determined.

Participants in the Ilse-1 well are operator S Lavon Evans, Jr Inc, which holds a 30% stake, Adelphi Energy Texas (25%), Antares Energy (25%), Index Oil & Gas (USA) (10%) and private US interests (10%"

http://www.petroleumnews.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=94887
 
Another "read between the lines". The word "potential" is mentioned 3 times in the announcement, and one "may be".
I have the potential of being a billionaire soon, but then again, may be not...
 
ADi will never mislead anyone

potentially they are going to make you a billionaire and me a millionaire!!
 
I enjoyed AZZ's Howard McLaughlin comment:

'Still subject to successful testing of this well which will also give us a better understanding of the volume of the reserves that may be present in this discovery'

'Subject to testing' (as always) but interesting that he is calling it a discovery at this point, must have great logs.

Question...if there is so much pressure down there what type of testing is likely to be called for?
 
once the wirelines are poroperly analysed they then put a production testing plan in place, and perforate and frac the zones of interest..

i would say the chances of the actual rig ever seeing itself on a azz or adi site anytime in the future would be nil..

a workover rig will be called in once they have an idea on what they need to frac.. assuming the principle of 90% of wells being fraced regardless in texas, i assume this one is going to follow the others..

the fact it kicked so hard they couldnt drill any further and they got 10 - 50 feet of play in the lower primary alone, makes for some exciting times ahead, there are still hundreds of feet (300) to TD and you would have to guess that there must be more of this stuff down there.

my tip is that a second well must be drilled on the play in anycase..

there is another seperate play on the lease also that azz wants to drill, so NT looks like a nice potential commercial play with lots more to offer on the lease..
 
Now this is a great clear and honest announcement in my opinion.Alex sounds very pleased with the results and gives his opinion with a slight degree of caution that nothing is absolute untill tested what more could you ask of the man I'm very pleased.
This should put a good safety barrier under the SP and may never see it in the 50's again as results start too flow in!
SL still remains an inigma but in my opinion the longer we wait the more deals are being discretly done behind the scenes!
Thanks ALEX
 
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