ADI - Adelphi Energy

condog · 26 May 2010

I tend to agree Agent

Wont sy it wont go for 40c, but geeze id be surprised if it did.

Right now its pretty easy decisions for all involved.

If ya scared, sell, take ya 41c and take advantage of AUT / EKA on the splits.

If ya think its going higher, buy or hold.

If ya dont know, seek advice. Or take a 50/50 hedge or some other hedge that suits your position.

Its a bad move by managment to blow so much cash to say no. It wont suit a yes or a no response. AWE want them cause they are cheap and loaded with cash. If thye blow the cash on defence, they make the offer less attractive and they ruin post offer performance somewhat.

Dumb dumb dumb move by ADI managment. 1 response penciled in a day or two would have been adequate to back the board gut feeling. If ADI mgmt think ADI is only worth 40c then thats a strong sell signal based on poor or "other" managment.

A buy strategy will prove brilliant if offer is raised, dangerous if offer is pulled.

Make your own decisions based on your research, limit risk, seek advice.

Ramblin Round · 26 May 2010

I'm still in it to hold, but you guys have to understand my frustration stateside. I'm holding a NASDAQ pink sheet stock which trades much more infrequent here stateside. What you guys hold trades solidly and much more frequently on the ASX.

My intent is to hold, and hold indefinitely for the long haul. But my risk is even more that maybe I can't sell on the open market when the time comes. But again that's my business and mine to weigh out. No problems here mates. Only been trading for 4 months and here I am in the middle of an attempted agressive takeover such the likes that you read about but rarely see enacted.

I did have an opportunity to read the AWE bidders statement in its entirity and I'll say it is very flawed in its positioning in regards to the ADI projects. How can a company mudsling on ADI when they purchased and supported the same ADI at 33% holdings ? The AWE reasoning in their statement is silly and smoke and mirrors. Quite frankly I'm insulted as an investor for them thinking that I'm that dumb as to be pursuaded by a 30 page document on their reasons why I should sell so cheap !

I do see what ADI is accomplishing with these wells and I do see that they are producing with great success. ADI has been derisked here IMHO as I have stated before yet AWE wants us to believe it is too risky to hold ? Wrong wrong wrong !

I guess I keep checking for movement in price, movement from ADI directors, and I get neither from neither. That's what I'm hungry for.......... some action I guess. Plus you guys down under talking on the internet all night and I'm sitting here all day talking to myself while you're still sleeping.

rock86 · 26 May 2010

how I read today's announcement, it will be released on the ASX on or before 31st May for all Investors to read, and be sent to shareholders by at least the 4th June

estseon · 26 May 2010

Ramblin

They have to go through the motions.

All in my opinion but I view the AWE offer as a trigger to start the ball rolling.

Even if AWE does not have operations information that has not been released to the public, the suspicion will be that they do.

If they pitched in with a higher bid, before ADI had a chance to issue its defence document, and if they managed to secure some shares before the release of that document, sellers might complain that AWE exploited that additional knowledge or suspected additional knowledge.

Remember that they will have received a briefing in relation to the recent placing.

So, they have pitched in below the Hartleys short-term price target. I don't see how anybody could complain at them exploiting insider information doing that.

By my theory, AWE are playing this clean. The real offer should follow ADI's defence document, its "Target Statement".

There are rules and procedures that they are obliged to follow.

But it's all guesswork.

The ADI time extension seems to be for bulk printing and distribution by snailmail. They are working to quite a tight timing and they might have the complication of clearing things through Hilcorp, which adds a time zone factor.

lemontree · 27 May 2010

rock86 said:
how I read today's announcement, it will be released on the ASX on or before 31st May for all Investors to read, and be sent to shareholders by at least the 4th June

I thought the announcement meant they were going to release a target statement on the 31st and the paper work will be sent to share holders on or before the 4th.

adobee · 28 May 2010

wow trading at 42c today ... people are really keen ..
cant wait to see what happens with this ? I cant buy at this price though .. taking another look at AUT .

rock86 · 28 May 2010

so Rancho frac started 17th May, it's now the 28th. Frac should pretty much be complete. Anyone heard anything??

Am expecting an announcement on Monday about it, funnily enough on the same day as the target statement being released

Agentm · 28 May 2010

i may ask a few people i know in texas on the weekend..

its been 11 days, it took morgan 11 days.. commenced 16th and finished on the 27th.. 6 days later on the 5th may the flow rates were disclosed

5.16 mmscf/d Gas & 2,046 bcpd or 31 mmscfe/d.

i know morgan was a smaller frac with only 4400 feet done.. if rancho is a longer frac completion then add a few more days.. late next weeks looks like the timing.. but things may be longer than that..

Tordilla Kid · 28 May 2010

Well, I got my "notice of appraised value" from the Karnes County Appraisal District today, and I must say that I'm much amazed that "total market value" dropped by 15%! New revenue sources? Likely. Duh!

Our Texas governor (Rick Perry) the one that put the "goober" in gubernatorial. Just had to get that one in. Sorry.

My wildlife/ag value is flat, but taxes on a home or business in Karnes County likely dropped significantly (e.g 15%). Very conservative group here, but down 15% is really something. Positive business environment.

Then there's the minerals. Karnes County taxes on my very waning 1990's production very conventional oil wells a bit more than doubled tax wise. Go figure. They had just about gone to nil tax wise, so I'm not sure if there's any broader application to future production. My hunch is probably ubetcha.

The Falls City High School "Beavers/Beaverettes" may have to decide between swim, ice hockey, rugby, la cross or some other expensive esoteric sports team. Maybe they'll quite putting those blue and white banners on my gate?

I suspect ADI holders are gonna make mucho dinero, regardless. YeeHaaw!

As for AgentM, women want him, men want to BE him and he makes really pretty worthless maps . Well he does give some worthwhile insight. Give him that.

I personally appreciate the Yanks and Aussies that sacrificed their lives for freedom this Memorial Day Weekend. Can't say enough about that. I'm thinking just now about mine.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend!

TK

Ramblin Round · 28 May 2010

Oh yeah TK I'm feelin you on that one. Dewitt Co. wised up quick and hit us here too.

Would you mind checking your private messages here and get back with me ? Thanks.

lol@the maps

They still used that Hawkville map in the Petrohawk analysts day presentation too. Made me lol when I saw it again.

lemontree · 31 May 2010

Was hoping for the target statement today, but alas it has not yet been released.

I did however notice this massive offloading of ADI shares just now. With such a large quantity i would guess it's not an individual, anyone have any thoughts on this?

01:49:58 PM 0.410 548,399 224,843.59 XT

Agentm · 31 May 2010

lemontree said:
Was hoping for the target statement today, but alas it has not yet been released.

I did however notice this massive offloading of ADI shares just now. With such a large quantity i would guess it's not an individual, anyone have any thoughts on this?

01:49:58 PM 0.410 548,399 224,843.59 XT

just a trade lemontree

plenty of holders have 500k units

news will be out after close.. no one is in any hurry,, why rush?

5haretrader · 31 May 2010

Report is out. Advice is to REJECT the offer. Valued as a 'best estimate of 61cents' with a low of 21cents and a high of $1.10. How do we feel, I wouldve thought 80cents as a best estimate but who knows.

Kremmen · 31 May 2010

The report looks good. A 107-page document with a great deal of information in one place.

Independent analysis ranges from 22-110c, with a preferred value of 61c.

jancha · 31 May 2010

5haretrader said:
Report is out. Advice is to REJECT the offer. Valued as a 'best estimate of 61cents' with a low of 21cents and a high of $1.10. How do we feel, I wouldve thought 80cents as a best estimate but who knows.

They'd be fairly conservative on that.
They also put a future upside on ADI with a lot of positives.
This is just the start imo.
Pity AWE hold 33% as the likelyhood of a third party entering would be remote.
I hope down the track ADI's management look after the average share holder when they have another capital raising instead of limiting it to to likes of AWE.
After all if we the public share holders did sell to AWE where would their jobs be?

AG1979 · 31 May 2010

To throw a hypothetical out there (unfounded i might add), AUT see the value so they throw in a script offer around 1.5 for 1 ADI, that will test AWE's offer, if AUT see the value they just might do that, ADI holders get exposure which we all desire, AUT build there holding of the Sugarkane AMI, AWE make a load on the script and still have exposure, maybe make a go of AUT later, just an unfounded thought!

gerkin02 · 31 May 2010

Aut havent got the cash or the reserves yet to borrow the cash.

What if adi fend off the takeover and merge with eka.

That could be a possibility?

kevro · 31 May 2010

AG1979 said:
To throw a hypothetical out there (unfounded i might add), AUT see the value so they throw in a script offer around 1.5 for 1 ADI, that will test AWE's offer, if AUT see the value they just might do that, ADI holders get exposure which we all desire, AUT build there holding of the Sugarkane AMI, AWE make a load on the script and still have exposure, maybe make a go of AUT later, just an unfounded thought!

I like your line of thought there. All depends on the script price but I would be interested for one. We still would have our interest in the Sugarkane which I suspect most still want.

Kevro

rock86 · 1 June 2010

on another note, we should be hearing Rancho results very soon. Let's hope it's a corker.

Oh another thing how in the report there were dry wells predicted the only way there will be a dry well is if Hilcorp stuff things up royaly (at present looks unlikely) or we either hit gold down there while drilling (not a bad upside though)

philly · 1 June 2010

jancha said:
They'd be fairly conservative on that.
They also put a future upside on ADI with a lot of positives.
This is just the start imo.
Pity AWE hold 33% as the likelyhood of a third party entering would be remote.
I hope down the track ADI's management look after the average share holder when they have another capital raising instead of limiting it to to likes of AWE.
After all if we the public share holders did sell to AWE where would their jobs be?

I have read bits and pieces of the report.
There is one aspect that I think is not mentioned in the report and will have a serious impact on the SP and that is what plans does Hilcorp have for ADI after the current 6 well program is completed. Is there any info out there about this?

ADI - Adelphi Energy

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