ADI - Adelphi Energy

Hatchy said:

Right, yeah I thought they were covering their butts.

Sure he's got a lot of options, exercisable at 90 or so...

Have to wait and see what happens - we could be a ways off 90cps if these markets don't settle down.

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umm.. ok hatchy..

i am sure none the wiser about who's covering who's butt!

i think 90 cents thingo is fine, but i would be happy if we could get there quickly?? but we are kinda floating in the .30 region right now.. eeerrrr..

look i have to be frank here.. i have no clue what your on about

On the strength of the ADI report I have added EKA to my "sugarloaf" interest and now make the trading a three way deal between ADI, AUT and EKA. by trading in the last few days I have another 10,000 "free" ADI shares. I think the groundhog is going to be consumed in gas flares in the not too distant future and disappear into the sunset.

- ADI covering their butt saying they don't know what the flares mean commercially

- 90 cents or so for the big boys to exercise their options

I have not clue what i'm on about most of the time!!!

Agentm said:

umm.. ok hatchy..

i am sure none the wiser about who's covering who's butt!

i think 90 cents thingo is fine, but i would be happy if we could get there quickly?? but we are kinda floating in the .30 region right now.. eeerrrr..

look i have to be frank here.. i have no clue what your on about

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3 weeks ago

measured depth 13364 feet

Approximately 1,500 feet of horizontal hole has now been drilled with total gas recorded in the range 300 to 700 units – up from a background of approximately 200 units. Intermittent minor gas flares were present over the last approximately 100 feet of drilling.
2 week ago

measured depth 13835

the well had reached a measured depth of 13,835 feet. Following minor changes in the rig configuration to more accurately measure gas readings, TCEI have advised an
increase in background values to 1,000 - 1,300 units. Gas flares have been observed of a more sustained and substantial nature whilst drilling during the last week and a significant flare occurred following a wiper trip.

1 week ago


measured depth 14,385 feet

the well had reached a measured depth of 14,385 feet, which equates to approximately 2,500 feet of the planned 6,000 feet of horizontal section within the Austin Chalk.

The well has continued to produce gas whilst drilling, which has led to sustained flaring activity. In addition, when routine operations such as connections reduce the downhole pressure, larger flares have been observed on surface, indicating a response to drawdown**. Elevated gas readings of approximately 1,500 units have been consistently measured during the drilling of this portion of the horizontal section.

today

measured depth 15239


Since the last report the well has continued to produce gas intermittently while drilling, with larger flares observed following periods of shut in when tripping to change components of the drilling assembly. The surface gas readings have averaged 2,000 units during this section.

More significant gas flares including a 50 foot flare were observed while drilling the horizontal section prior to pulling out of hole.


the well is now 3500 feet in the lateral, and has 2500 of drilling to complete

854 feet drilled this week..

elevated background readings have gone up consistantly, 300 - 700 in the first week, then with flaring, and then they changed the configuration on how to read the background readings and it has gone to 1000- 1300, then 1500, and now 2000

flaring has increased in frequency and size during drill breaks, to now flare during drilling up to 50 feet.

imho TCEI is hitting good chalks throughout and have also drilled closer to, or indeed intesected fractures of late..

Great reading todays announcement Kowalik seems to be getting stronger and stronger by the metre.
The most bullish announcemnent from ADI management ever a year ago this company would have been trading well in excess of $1 on this kind of report so when market confidence returns we should quickly profit.
Lets hope AgentM wins this months tipping comp finally he deserves it !

Lucky_Country said:

Great reading todays announcement Kowalik seems to be getting stronger and stronger by the metre.
The most bullish announcemnent from ADI management ever a year ago this company would have been trading well in excess of $1 on this kind of report so when market confidence returns we should quickly profit.
Lets hope AgentM wins this months tipping comp finally he deserves it !

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I'd agree AgentM has done his work on this stock and a great job at keeping everyone updated across the online forum universe - god knows I dont have the technical smarts to interpret all that stuff that you all do

The only thing nagging me is that if you go to the beginning of this thread to now, theres been so much - what promise the stock has - to hit $1 or $6, and everyone is still waiting for that years later - it just doesnt seem to have the legs to get there.

More than happy to be told I told you so when/if it comes off but for now I'm really on the fence.

lukentel said:

I'd agree AgentM has done his work on this stock and a great job at keeping everyone updated across the online forum universe - god knows I dont have the technical smarts to interpret all that stuff that you all do

The only thing nagging me is that if you go to the beginning of this thread to now, theres been so much - what promise the stock has - to hit $1 or $6, and everyone is still waiting for that years later - it just doesnt seem to have the legs to get there.

More than happy to be told I told you so when/if it comes off but for now I'm really on the fence.

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good place to be perhaps.. if you have the cash and sitting on the fence you have so many choices..

two years ago the jvp announced they were drilling sugarkane..when the first target found the chalks to be very active they immediately implemented a massive lease buying strategy. thus ended any further activity on the sugarkane play for a good 12 months or more..

in that period TCEI secured 20,000 acres (now its 23000 acres) for our jvp and many more acres with other jvps such as AUT, and also in its own right..

in that time Conoco also drilled many verticals such as butler, hooks, bordovsky and in turn secured about 250,000 of it own acreages.. there are players such as meridian with 20,000 acres and other players not yet surfaced.

i gather you cant appreciate both the size of the play and the complexities of both securing leases and then drilling wells without revealing their successes, and whilst this happens you have a major player like conocophillips now declaring the sugarkane (cote d'or) as one of its major exploration projects..
and indeed they have now structured an entire separate division to just soley run this project. separate from south texas division entirely..

pipelines are in the planning, and infrastructure needs to be budgeted.. so in 2009 the show fully cranks up..

the current program of discovery and appraisal wells has given conocophillips the green light to make this "greenfield" (look it up) play one of its most important projects.. this is not a 3 tcf play..

where is the $3 - $6? it arrives as the market understand the size and calculations thus far declared by the jvp is for 250 acre spacings, and extremely conservative well life figures.... no chalks play can be drained on that level of spacings.. thus 100 wells is giving you a net figures of 600bcf for our acres.. so your getting into 200m region to adi here. about $2/mcfe. .. look at the slide from the recent presentation to get some value from it.. now remember thats on 250 acre spacings.. there is no way this play will be drained on that, it will be far far smaller than that.. even on 100 acre spacings the figures are staggering, and thats based on just 6 bcf per well.. all on zone 1 alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

so the current presentations are based on very conservative and low figures, and very big well spacings.. i have been told COP would look at 40 acre spacings in the good regions..

some see future value and have invested, others like yourself will sit on the fence.. all up to the individual investor and their risk profile..

btw all this is based on just the upper 80 foot zone alone!! there is 220 feet more below to consider in two zones as its has been classified thus far..


when people say it could be the largest onshore US discovery, they are not kidding..!! wonder how concophillips will announce it..??

you understand that the jvp are not allowed by contract to mention anything other the most conservative of figures, which is sensible, and the cote d'or project and Conocophillips are not allowed to be mentioned in any way shape or form on any presentation or release....

how many companies do you know are under contract not to discuss all aspects and angles and interests in a play they are investing massive capital into??

next well for conocophillips with eme as a farm in partner

marlene olsen,,


The well is designed as a vertical well that will target all three potential pay zones (Upper, Middle & Lower) identified on the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field. The "Upper" zone has two wells that Empyrean has previously reported as successfully flowing commercial quantities of gas and condensate on test (Block A-1 & A-3 wells).


conocophillips is now exploring the deeper zones

Baker 1 vertical pilot took 20 days to TD. Baker 2 information is less certain. It spudded on 4th July and EME reported on 1st August that it had reached TD, that logs had been run and that they were setting plugs to kick off the lateral drill. So drilling might take about 3 weeks but we might not hear anything until nearer the end of the month. For SL-1, they started work at the deepest level.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sugarloaf Testing

Zone 3 fracture stimulation completed
During initial test period flowed gas,
condensate and water
Water characteristics were of a
formation below the Austin Chalk -
likely frac has penetrated to below
the Chalk
Further well testing required
Currently installing completion
tubing in order to carry out longer
term production and pressure testing
Will not test upper 2 zones until post
Kennedy-1H testing

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Reserve Potential - Sugarkane
Additional information from expanded operations will be required in
order to make firm estimates of reserves and economics
Potential reserves have been estimated for the 200,000 acre
"Sugarkane" field by TCEI.
The field is expected to be developed with horizontal wells
Total Sugarkane reserve potential in the Austin Chalk (upper zone
of 3 - the 2 lower zones assumed as nothing for this calculation) is
more than 3TCF and approx. 500MMBC
Based on these reserve and production assumptions, Sugarkane
has better economics than conventional horizontal developed
Austin Chalk and the Barnett Shale.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aurora JV's Sugarkane Reserve Potential - Upper Zone

1.91 TCFe

the kowalik is sure lively of late.. imho the flares whilst drilling has not changed at kowalik one bit.. and also imho the midweekly will be as positive as all the previous ones were. perhaps more so...


Lucky_Country, the figures going around on what these chalks can hold is staggering, when you think that anything announced so far has been extremely over conservative.

I am not sure what it is , maybe it is the size or type of font that ADI use , however I can read EKA or AUT announcements and get quite exited with the result , but reading ADI's exact same announcement , I liken it to reading a dictionary which does not exactly push my buttons for any form of fun.

I have also noticed after an announcement AUT share price will rise while ADI share price remains unchanged.

AUT has 202m shares on issue
ADI has 124m

seasprite said:

AUT has 202m shares on issue
ADI has 124m

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The relationship between ADI and AUT must take into account the fact that AUT has additional acerage which may offset the different number of shares. I'm still happy to give them equal value and while the AUT price has been higher I have been trading AUT for more ADI. I have now taken EKA into the equation as the EKA SP dropped more than I thought it should drop. At the moment I hold all three with ADI being the dominant one. I am watching the relationship daily. Good news will not cause an even increase in the SP. It will depend on the numbers of buyers and sellers of each and one will be faster to react and one will be slower. There will be an opportunity for a profitable exchange arise here. Be prepared.

if you can equate additional acreages in AUT to a better share price when no wells have been drilled in those regions to prove the additional acreages are prospective then so be it, but then how do you equate the acreages ADI hold in yemen with a major discovery only a few miles from the acrages? surely you must add something to adi for that nioka? both are the same then are they not?? both have acreages in world class areas that have not been drilled, ipanema and longhorn for AUT.. and yemen for adi (276 square kilometers just for block 7 alone)


Block 7
Prospectivity
• Several basement leads 20 - >100 mmbbls
• Other sub-salt leads up to ~100mmbbls
• 3D seismic completed
• Drilling mid-2009

oil search did nto sell this block!!!!!! it kept it for very good reason

• Primary play is fractured basement
• Similar to nearby 110mmbbls Habban (Al Uqlah) field that will be 32,000 bopd by 2009
• Several secondary / traditional targets provide upside


dont forget there is also indonesia..

it still confuses the heck out of me in how you can consider ADI and AUt have any parity what so ever nioka.... imho, AUT have not the same portfolio as ADI, nor does it have to 100% support of a great partner like AWE.. i would agree EKA and AUT have similarities, but ADI is not imho..

imho you take a very simplistic view of the partners.. and i am trying to criticise you because thus far you have managed to make an absolutle killing and increase your holdings on these partners by trading in and out of them.. but is this simplistic view of only considering acreages and not costs going to be the only view that people will accept?

AUT has its own costs to meet on the 80% and 50% ownership of the additional acreages, so in terms of the near future, with the high costs of drilling thes horizontals, which easily takes $6 - $10 mill to drill, wouldnt you consider the 80% of costs to ipanema and 50% of well costs needed to drill in longhorn in the valuations you make?? i would have thought for them to drill 5 wells on each region to prove it up will mean a considerable amount of capital would be required. with the current 4 well program stretching all partners to the max, and the need for more capital on the 20,000 acres by the jvp once the 4 wells are completed and adding in additional for kennedy being fracced... are you certain that AUT would not be requiring additional capiatal for any fairly expensive expansion into longhorn and ipanema??

imho the dumping of the large volume of AUT and EKA was attributed to perhaps margin calls? but whatever the causes for holders to have to dump the shares is directly related to the very sharp decreases in their share prices..

imho ADI is well managed, has very strong shareholder support and patient holder who do not panic and dump their shares.. it is a well held share imho..

Agent.

I agree with all you say. I admit to the fact that I may be wrong. To a certain extent I am using a blanket approach that is influenced by the values that the market in general have placed on the various assets and prospects for all three. I agree that ADI is the soundest investment where risk is taken into account. IF the SP values are/were equal all the time then I would stay with ADI 100% and I keep going back to ADI on that basis. Last week is the first week I have put extra funds into the project for a long time. I did it by buying EKA and AUT as their price was better than ADI at that stage. It is also the first time I have held EKA. ( I only really started following EKA closely after one of your posts asking if I had considered EKA in the equation.) All I can say is that it is working for me and has allowed me to cream off some profit and increase my holding.

Well ADI has to be my best perfomer in recent times I know that does not say much for the rest of my portfolio but also speaks volumes for ADI.
The shareprice has been reasonably well supported on two fronts imo.
Existing holders keeping a firm grip on what they hold and some increasing including myself.
Also the results on Kowalik 1 have been very pleasing in a conservative way.
I just like the way management in ADI go about their business, professional, and know a good project from a average one.
ADI in Wisteria farmed out at a great time when oil and gas were real vogue but still maintained good exposure what a great deal that was.
Lets see the rewards near term and enjoy the ride.

seasprite said:

I have also noticed after an announcement AUT share price will rise while ADI share price remains unchanged.

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I think you'd have to look at who own the shares, ADI will only generally move if someone wants to sell - and there's been bugger all selling of ADI lately!

Hatchy said:

I think you'd have to look at who own the shares, ADI will only generally move if someone wants to sell - and there's been bugger all selling of ADI lately!

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There has also been "bugger all" buying. More buying offers would mean increased price. Let's face it all three ADI, AUT and EKA have had very low volume. Those holding are mostly all long termers with some faith. Those selling probably either need the money or are swapping like I have been. Those few new buyers have probably been reading Agentm's reports. I'd suggest they are not a stock for the day trader.

ADI has the cash for the next 4 wells..

so far we hear kowalik is flaring whilst drilling, as reported last wednesday.. and my contacts report the well is still behaving as reported last week..

i remain totally convinced that there is nothing wrong with kowalik, and those dumping out of adi at the moment are imho are really not undersatnding the situation out there in texas..

"The surface gas readings have averaged 2,000 units during this section. More significant gas flares including a 50 foot flare were observed while drilling the horizontal section prior to pulling out of hole."

that aspect of the report from my understanding was not once off.. i hear this flaring at kowalik is continuing even till today.. i think the kowalik well is absolutley looking like its going to achieve commercial flow..

Commercial flows are almost certain imo.
The question is whar are the flow rates ?
Are the flow rates going to be impressive a company maker, money spinner, and continuos throughout all 4 wells and more ?
Soon we will see ADI may even let some more positive news come out over the next few announcements.