EOW Update
On a sleepless night, writing this update, made a commitment to take a housemate to the airport at 3:30am and couldn't sleep by 1:30am so just gave up.
A turbulent week from all out fear around the DeepSeek models to a strong close of the week and a seemingly strong Friday session in New York. All is riding on a delicate soft landing I fear. Retrace is imminent..
Weightings
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Profit / Loss
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Current thoughts;
ASX:AAL is performing extremely well. I am not sure how long this will last, have moved stop losses to now accommodate a minimum 25% gain on my capital if things go bottoms up/we see major capitulation (on the tightly held volume)
Property assets are performing strongly and have for the full duration of this portfolio representing the top performing asset class in both total returns and capital gains. Will buy the dip when the RBA holds interest rates (if they do). For context I am a final year economics student who works full time within Financial Services at a major Australian bank in Data Platforms, so I really enjoy constructing theories based on my learnings at University, thus far it has proven exceptionally useful for reading FX and fed policy.
On a late night why not have some ramblings;
My current course of action for Q1 2025 are the following; at least these are my thoughts based on the current economic situation:
- Bring property exposure back into an overweight position by increasing net exposure by ~6-7% bringing our position to ~21 - 22% of the portfolios weighting, I am doing this based on the following rationale;
- Return to office drive
- Stabilization in interest rates over the course of the next 6 - 12 months
- To many vested interest in the success of commercial property (big super and a large amount of Australians retirement funds)
- I believe we will see a HOLD decision from the RBA in February, I believe this will present a whipsaw buying opportunity, if this doesn't occur and there is indeed a CUT I will wait for the initial hype to die down and buy on the inevitable sell off in the subsequent days.
- Open a position in ASX:BBOZ on the decision date from the RBA (on the morning of) with the intention to close it out on the same day. Risk will be tightly managed accounting for a maximum loss of ~3% and will be utilizing trading funds that amounts to approximately 4% of the portfolios total value.
- Divest my position in ASX:VDBA and rotate 50% into ASX:A200 and the other 50% into ASX:HQUS (Equal Weighted S&P500) my rationale for this decision is the lack of capital growth on VDBA (while it has returned ~ 6.68% in Capital Gains) I don't believe it meets the growth criteria I am targeting for this portfolio.
Fully expecting to receive a windfall pay rise of ~10 - 12% in the coming months and in turn will inject this buffer into my portfolio. I have a key value target I am aiming to hit by April and hope to share with everyone.
The Goodman Group Trade
This trade returned 2.51% in capital gains, not a shabby result could of squeezed an extra 0.5% out as mentioned but was preoccupied with work and just wanted to lock it in, managed to get out at a price above the close however so am happy with that.
Getting better at managing my risk and timing it, or is it just luck (im not sure) but limiting my downside and getting in and out within a week seems to serve me better. I have added a category to my ShareSight account called "DEFINED TRADE" this will capture all trade specific allocations.
Some notable mentions in FY24 that have been classed as Speculative are the following;
- Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) - 29.77% return in a period of ~30 - 40 days
- Australian Dollar Bull Fund (ASX:AUDS) various trades over the course of FY24 amounting to a total return of 5.15%. Was really proud of my exit going into Christmas that substantially limited my downside.
- Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC) a trade returning 6.46% off the back of governance scandals that effected the share price substantially a trade that amounted to a hold period of less then 14 days.
None the less until next week or my next trade, onwards and upwards motha fuckas