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ACR - Acrux Limited

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Re: ACR - Acrux

Miner said:
Tinhat

I was browsing on ACR threads and found your posting.
What do you think of your decision made in Feb 2013 with current price. Felt lucky hey?
great job done.
What do you think of ACR today ? Re-entry level ?
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That was a bit crazy. It was pure luck and not a sensible thing to have done.

I actually had two further trades in ACR.

Buy 15/2/13 @ 3.71, sell 22/2/13 @ 3.93 for 7% gain
Buy 21/2/13 @ 3.66, sell 22/2/13 @ 3.93 for 4.8% gain

I'm not really sure what I as thinking back then.

I've been watching the chart lately but not the company. I can only assume that the market no longer believes the outlook justifies the stratospheric PEs.

Do any T/As have an opinion on the bearishness of a tripple-top? The monthly is showing a triple top and the chart looks very bearish.

Looking at the Thomson Reuters consensus forecasts of six analysts the current price gives a forward looking PE of 11.71 for FY14 with an expected dividend of 19cps (yield of 7.31%) and 8.61 for FY15 with an expected dividend of 34.50cps (yield 13.27%).

I would be interested to hear more on the outlook for this company from anyone who is following. I will look at it again when it demonstrates it is in an up-swing.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

tinhat said:
I would be interested to hear more on the outlook for this company from anyone who is following. I will look at it again when it demonstrates it is in an up-swing.
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This name is in a bit of trouble... FDA is investigating potential safety concerns in TRT. Given the mostly discretionary nature of ACR's drug, the sales and royalty stream could be hit pretty hard. The investigation is not final yet, but unless they have something pretty positive to say, it won't be pretty when it re-opens.

This reminds me of MMS... when some trading was allowed before the company is placed into a trading halt, even though the news was already out first thing in the morning.

This from AFR


http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/acrux_enters_halt_shares_down_pc_Wx9kCGxI7Z8eOzijkhieiP

And this from the Motley Fools


Market routs such as this can create great buying opportunities for investors. Sell-offs are often sudden with subsequent rallies equally as quick. Savvy investors need to be alert and ready to act when opportunities present themselves.
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http://www.fool.com.au/2014/02/04/acrux-limited-tumbles-10-3/

Lol Fools! Get on with the program!
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

I owned Acrux but recently sold my stake on the back of the recent bad news. I've described my experience in more detail here. I too was worried about the discretionary nature of its testosterone replacement therapy. It'll be interesting to see if the recent negative publicity and pending investigation by the FDA leads to a significant drop in sales in the future.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

Share price down 9% possibly on the back of this.

http://www.baystreet.ca/viewarticle.aspx?id=412728

Cochran Firm, D.C. Investigating AndroGel, Axiron and Other Potential Testosterone Replacement Therapy Lawsuit Cases
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FDA investigation might be driven by facts and safety, while law firm investigation would be driven by fine and liability.

Another trading halt and carefully worded statement coming soon... probably along the lines of "no basis" and "vigorously defend any accusations".

Fire Bull said:
I owned Acrux but recently sold my stake on the back of the recent bad news. I've described my experience in more detail here.
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Nice blog
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

Shorted these guys at $1.58 this morning for a tiny position (about 1/10 of what I would have taken) as I was trying to save a few ticks) and closed it at $1.42. What's that saying? Don't be a dick for a tick.

The last few times this stock release bad news, 10% seems to be the norm in terms of falls. May be the penny finally dropped today that this company's future earnings is likely to be substantially less than what people had wished for. Down 30% and even triggered a reg_hlt.

What I can't understand is that, industry sales figures are regularly updated (weekly or fortnightly) so how can the market take so long to mark it down. It would have been a great short back in Feb when the safty concerns first flared up.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux



I thought $1.955 was OK.

:hide:
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

Faramir said:


I thought $1.955 was OK.

:hide:
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Get out of the chair and think forward. Your purchase price is sunk cost and has little bearing except tax consequences.

So review your outlook, your decision to hold and learn the lessons as you go (hey that rhymes).

Good luck.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

Thank you skc. I brought a small amount as my first share purchase. I am going to hold. I have learn much since then.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

Acrux Limited soars on positive quarterly sales numbers. The positive news would propel it up to 1.775 in short term according to au stoxline.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

No. I was away from the computer all day Friday.

There are 3 products in the market: Axiron, Evamist & Recuvyra with Axion being the most dominant.

Revenue for 2013/2014 up 223% ($53.859 mil)
Profit for 2013/2014 up 304% ($27.97 mil)
Dividend 8c per share fully franked.

I am missing something. This is the second time I have watched ACR drop. I am long term holder. Many people will think I am wrong.

Thank you Burglar for your contribution.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

burglar said:
S&P DJ Indices Announces September Quarterly Rebalance:
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I don't know if this was the cause of the fall. The S&P 200 Australian index is more gimmick than substance.

Whereas this might be the true trigger for the Friday plunge.

http://www.usnews.com/news/business...little-evidence-to-support-testosterone-drugs

The Food and Drug Administration says there is little evidence that testosterone-boosting drugs taken by millions of American men are beneficial, though the agency is also unconvinced by studies suggesting the hormone carries serious risks.
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I am not in any position to assess what FDA's finding will reveal. But these guidance notes have caused sales to fall all through 2014. Regardless of what a doctor thinks about the FDA's investigation, prescribing these medications in light of FDA's guidance is really opening themselves up for a potential lawsuit down the track, imo.

It's an existential question for ACR... coupled with a large amount of shorts on the register. The stock will remain wild for some time.

burglar said:
I hope you all, had a trailing_stop in place!
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That is good advice for traders... although the potential for massive gaps (either way perhaps) can't be ignored in sizing a trading position.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

I am a person who hates/fears injections!
I feel that this company has a wonderful commercial advantage going forward!!









That being said, I don't currently require any Pharmaceuticals.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

Thank you Burglar for taking an interest in Acrux. Since it was my first stock purchase, my ego will always tell me that I am right. There will be an announcement later this week by FDA.

http://www.fda.gov/AdvisoryCommitte...iveHealthDrugsAdvisoryCommittee/ucm412535.htm

Only part way reading some of these reports. I will comment more later when I have time.

My main comment is that men are vain. First they want hair replacement. Now we can play on their insecurities and tell them that they need 'juice' for energy drive, bedroom drive, etc. I am hoping that Acrux develop other products quickly and that they won't be so dependent on Axiron. Some of their products have yet to enter Phrase One Trials

SKC is right that this share price will be very volatile. My first mistake is to purchase ACR mid-March instead of waiting until June-mid-July. Feel sorry for those who brought last year to January this year. My second mistake was not to ask questions about their other products and when those products will produce more revenue. I still believe Acrux has a good future. Acrux is also the third most shorted stock. Am I wrong or am I going against the trend?
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

I am predominantly trading by T/A, using trends of support and resistance, assisted by some indicators of my own.
Have missed the last 20c of profit because I didn't reenter in time.
Now I'm waiting for the second gradient to be tested. Have set alerts at $1.50 and $1.75.

 
Re: ACR - Acrux

Trading halted now...

Can't believe it was allowed to trade for almost an hr on the back of negative FDA panel recommendations.
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

skyQuake said:
Trading halted now...

Can't believe it was allowed to trade for almost an hr on the back of negative FDA panel recommendations.
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Yes bloody slack governance by the board and ASX.. but great for holders who had their ears to the ground and get out on the open.

(Or shorters making a good profit )
 
Re: ACR - Acrux

skc said:
Yes bloody slack governance by the board and ASX.. but great for holders who had their ears to the ground and get out on the open.

(Or shorters making a good profit )
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Given the chart patterns of recent weeks, with diverging momentum persisting for the last four, nobody can tell me that there haven't been some whispers on private lines suggesting "get out because..."

Level playing field, my tired foot



In any case: My $1.50 alert went off and went by without me buying because the second gradient did not hold as support. No further explanation needed why I don't set automatic conditional orders, but always reserve manual control.
 
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