A2M - The A2 Milk Company

[notting]

6.98 and 7.05

 

[notting]

Even if what the idiots in the Fin Review are writing about A2M and Mr Lu were true, I'd still be shorting it.
But imagine how awesome a short it would be if this were true -


China's purchase by stealth of 25 dairy farms in north-western Tasmania was funded entirely through debt. Those involved did not see 'Lu' as a serious bidder as he'd come late to the sales process.

"No one thought he'd have enough time to make a bid," said the source.

Then, to the shock of most involved, less than two weeks later Mr Lu offered a knockout bid of $280 million for the dairy group.

It got approval from Scott Morrison because they promised 100m cash investment as well.
"They promised significant amounts of money would be invested……. nothing has happened so far,"

‘Moon Lake's managing director Sean Shwe said the company had fulfilled all the basic commitments made to the federal government and the board would finalize its capital expenditure plan by the end of August.’

It’s now October.

The issue of Moon Lake's lofty promises still being a work in progress can be partly explained by the curious way in which Mr Lu, a window blind manufacture from the regional city of Ningbo, came to own one of Australia's oldest and most storied farms – the land was granted to VDL by King George IV in 1824.

According to those involved in the sale, Mr Lu bought the dairy operation after a single three-hour visit in November 2015.

That’s because Mr Lu is a patsy for the Chinese Communist Party.

Mr Lew’s offer was at least 10 per cent above the under-bidder and nearly $60 million more than a group of seasoned industry professionals had been prepared to pay.

Company filings in China also show shareholders in New Material guaranteed $220 million in lending by Mr Lu for the purchase of VDL, while there was also a $70 million loan from Rabo Bank in Australia.

Guess who’s going to take a hit when Mr Lew offloads it to a public (CCP) entity at a loss!

So far the market is reading this as a boon for A2M because Mr Lu a fricken window blind manufacture from Ningbo (heard of Ningbo anyone?) is appearing to be struggling to compete with A2M because Lu has been offering consumers in Beijing, Shanghai and surrounding provinces eight litres of fresh milk over a month for 618 yuan or around $14.30 a litre which compares to $10.20 a litre for fresh milk from the better known A2 Milk Company.
So everyone thinks A2M is killing it.
No A2M is being stalked and will be knee capped.
Look out for the better known A2M 'milk contamination' or 'bribery' scandal in China or Mr Lu going bust and the company offloaded to a shell company.

Any remember - Melco Crown's Macau bonanza?

Oh one of those Lions just bit James's head off.

Big scandal lock up the execs. Make James panic and sell his stake to his Chinese partner for a third of its value whilst majority of Crown execs are being tormented and interrogated in Chinese Prison.

 

[VSntchr]

Even if what the idiots in the Fin Review are writing about A2M and Mr Lu were true, I'd still be shorting it.

Big scandal lock up the execs. Make James panic and sell his stake to his Chinese partner for a third of its value whilst majority of Crown execs are being tormented and interrogated in Chinese Prison.

So, are you short on the front side of this steam train @notting ?
I agree at some point this bubble may provide some good downside, but A2 could become A10 beforehand!

 

[Triathlete]

I would set a stop at $5.70 on the daily to lock in some profits.
I still expect a move towards $6.77 and $7.08.......

Now that A2M has reached these prices noted above I would sell half of my position now since there has been a 100% move from $5.17 to $6.40 and extended up from $5.85 and wait to see if we get another pull back up to 50% of the last range if we do we can again add to the position.

 

[tech/a]

I’d rather sell the lot
If it makes a new high buy a position back
If it retraces toward $6 watch price action to
Enter again. If it retraced any further I’d leave it alone.

 

[peter2]

Hasn't this sector been on fire this week.
A2M, BAL, SM1, BGA, WHA, BUB, CLV along with a huge BO in BKL.

 

[luutzu]

Hasn't this sector been on fire this week.
A2M, BAL, SM1, BGA, WHA, BUB, CLV along with a huge BO in BKL.

Know what happened to things after they've on fire?

Seriously, I don't know much about these food, health and diary business. They all seem way overpriced to me but yea.... A2M at some $7Billion? That's a lot of cows, and my guess is they're only getting the milk.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Know what happened to things after they've on fire?

Seriously, I don't know much about these food, health and diary business. They all seem way overpriced to me but yea.... A2M at some $7Billion? That's a lot of cows, and my guess is they're only getting the milk.

Probably best stick to Financial Ratios Luutzu.

 

[luutzu]

Probably best stick to Financial Ratios Luutzu.

I do think strategic thingy maggig too though

 

[notting]

So, are you short on the front side of this steam train @notting ?
I agree at some point this bubble may provide some good downside, but A2 could become A10 beforehand!

yep I took the gap as a bit of insurance, space to reassess. I bought half back at 6.94 as it filled it pretty quick! Did not continue a break down so I'll see if it wants to make a higher high. Ducky can make me a little more chicken than usual. It's a bird thing.

But don't forget this either -

In 2013 a wide-scale recall of products sold by dairy producer Fonterra was announced after suspected botulism-causing bacteria were reportedly found by the Chinese during safety tests. (When the frick do the Chinese do safety tests on anything? The Communist owned Chinese baby formulators poisoned all their babies which is why there is so much demand for foreign stuff in the first place) Consequently approximately 1,000 tonnes of Fonterras perfectly healthy pristine consumer product was affected by the recall across seven countries, but no cases of sickened consumers were reported. China, which imports most of its powdered milk from New Zealand, instituted a temporary ban on the import of the ingredient from New Zealand.
in other words they just wanted to level the playing field and take back some market share!

How good will Mr.Lu's premium on the premium brand look when A2 is targeted?!

Oh yeah McDonald's and KFC sold out to Chinese operators after a spate of food saftery scandals widely reported in Communist Chinese controlled local media!!!.

 

[Triathlete]

I’d rather sell the lot
If it makes a new high buy a position back
If it retraces toward $6 watch price action to
Enter again. If it retraced any further I’d leave it alone.

Yep that works as well.
That is the beauty of trading everyone has their own style as how they will play the game...

 

[notting]

Shorting again 708, 711, 713, Just because the price is ridiculous.

 

[tech/a]

How much are you shorting at a time?

How many shares?

Ridiculous prices have made me a lot of $$s over the years.

DVT had a P/E ration that sounded like a Cricket score yet it
defied logic from 6 c to $7.30 I only got a bit.
6c to $3.10

Most 1/2/3/500% risers look ridiculous for ages.
Some get so entrenched in having to be right against all those idiots who are crazy wrong they miss the train.

 

[rb250660]

I bet it's a demo account.

How's the "double top with a pop" going for QAN notting? Did you short that?

Lets see the confirmation notes or I'm calling you full of ****. And you better have decent size on it too for the way you run your mouth.

 

[notting]

How's the "double top with a pop" going for QAN notting? Did you short that?

Yep, made money both ways. Then said it was still showing too much strength during missile tests to be short! Ive never used a demo account.

I bet it's a demo account.

Well speaking of demos, how about $700,000 on that bet for real? No less.

DVT had a P/E ration that sounded like a Cricket score yet it
defied logic from 6 c to $7.30 I only got a bit.
6c to $3.10

Yeah but that happens with start ups. It's gone way too far is what I'm saying - It's a well run business. I'm not shorting huge amounts. Just keeping people updated which I do if I mention what I'm doing. I have about 60 other positions!

Took some back at the close. Don't like the fact that BAL is going nuts too, to let too much hang out there.
I'm Using CFDs so that the brokerage is a small percentage hence the ability to use multiple trades with small increments. I call it 'The Bradman!' I can get way big if things like BAL aren't happening at the same time! But not on this one now. The swinging for the fences trade will go on BAL when A2M looks like it's turning. BAL is no A2M!
BAL went through 10, finished high, which is annoying. But I haven't lost money standing in front of the A2M train which tells me it's running out of steam, trades aren't getting swallowed too enthusiastically as they do when an error is becoming a mistake!

 

[tech/a]

60 positions
Seriously that’s a waste of time!

 

[Trendnomics]

Must be an exciting life trying to pick up pennies in front of an oncoming steam-roller!

Perhaps asymmetric risk/reward is not fully understood.

 

[notting]

Must be an exciting life trying to pick up pennies in front of an oncoming steam-roller!

Perhaps asymmetric risk/reward is not fully understood.

Perhaps not if your looking at intraday momentum vs extremity of daily momentum of a run up and the probability of it to continue at it's rate given the bigger picture and value.
Risk understood and covered with stop losses and profited from in this case against the train.
Yes it is an exciting life, it's golf that's not!!!!!!!! I do some of it on a treadmill so get my exercise too.

60 positions
Seriously that’s a waste of time!

I understand why you say that.
However it's not hard at all because I just leave most of them with their trend one way or another and can check all of them, if any are doing something more compelling, at a touch of a button. I concentrate more intensely on a few at a time more pro actively as they start to look silly, going the wrong way, have made enough money etc. No time at all to have a good hands on feel for all those opportunities.
I was long A2M until I started screaming, 'this is mental!'

Wasn't a great day today given market just broke out of a long consolidation and this is pretty much the leading stock in the leading sector. Wasn't all together bad either with the higher high. But it's toppy even without Chinese intervention.

 

[rb250660]

With 60 positions you're probably just tracking the market. Sell up and buy STW.

 

[tech/a]

With 60 positions you're probably just tracking the market. Sell up and buy STW.

That is exactly my point.
No edge in the market.
Make a profit out of futures trade or a handful
Of stock and then your trading.

Don’t kid yourself your investing either.
Your money’s not working for you as it’s spread too thin.