A2 Milk Company and G8 Education: Time to cash in?

[frugal.rock]

@Stu23
Do you still own A2M? McFly?
@Value Hunter
Nothing like exhuming a good thread..... this ain't it though
(Exception to @tech/a chart and description... there's another one for the archives)
F.Rock

 

[tech/a]

Despite posting in the Kiddies section
Some of the adults maybe interested.
Bought some after being stopped out at B/E
for $14.

 

[barney]

Bought some after being stopped out at B/E
for $14

The $13.90-$14.00 level has been checked about 4 times now so I see the logic, but I'm seeing it from the other side of the glass.

The recent rejection of the highs (2), then the possible rejection at (3) makes it for me.

For you guys holding I hope I am completely wrong

 

[tech/a]

Sure could go that way.
For me a 2 tick stop
below the recent low is
an acceptable Discretionary
Trade.

 

[barney]

Sure could go that way.For me a 2 tick stop
below the recent low is an acceptable Discretionary Trade.

No arguments there .... Entry near the current lows with the convenience of a tight Stop is always good risk/reward.

Short term still feels like a 50 50 bet to me …. $15.25 to the upside (max $16) but a $12.35 downside possibility …..

All probably take 2 months to play out ….. interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[frugal.rock]

My
The likelihood of it ramping up seems unlikely IMO due to the C virus.
QANTAS is cancelling flights for 2 months? I heard today.
"Suspension of mainland China services from 9 February 2020 Reflects impact of international travel bans on crew logistics across broader network No change to Qantas services between Australia and Hong Kong"
https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/
Not sure how much things will affect sales into China long term, but it would be wise to consider.
I can see why the signal is there from today's bar though.
F.Rock
PS: shame the discussion isn't happening in the A2M thread... instead of the "kiddies section"

 

[tech/a]

I’ll take 50/50
I have systems with 38% wins

 

[Saqeeb]

Very insightful analysis on A2M. Thanks @tech/a and @barney.

 

[barney]

I’ll take 50/50 I have systems with 38% wins

Again … no arguments from me Tech .….. As you know, I'm just offering a different view of the chart as I see it.

As you have aptly exampled on many occasions ….

The view of the chart mean little ….. its how you act/react to that "view" that matters

Very insightful analysis on A2M. Thanks @tech/a and @barney.

Thanks Saqeeb ...… The A2M chart is a perfect example of how traders can see a different possible direction developing.

A2M is currently not a "pattern" I like but Tech may well make a few bucks from it (I hope he does).

Personally, I like trading "puzzles" with undervalued Spec stocks so my opinions should be treated with appropriate caution on high volume/high value stocks such as this

I find making a call whether it goes good or bad is a valuable learning experience … simply because you have "made the call public" and have to own it

 

[Saqeeb]

@barney, sure it does show how different traders can have different perspectives over the same chart. No stress as I am already in this as I have the same perspective as @tech/a on this one.

 

[barney]

@barney No stress as I am already in this

Cheers M8 … Just another reason why I hope I'm on the wrong track then

 

[tech/a]

Barney
I learnt many years ago that it’s
Not about analysis being right or wrong as
We won’t know either way until sometime in the future.

what analysis does is identify opportunity and INDICATE
that opportunity.
It’s up to the trader to make the most of what happens
After that perceived opportunity appears.

one mans opportunity is often not enough for another to
Act upon! I was shown TESLA at $192 and passed it up!
The two people who agreed and bought saw something
I didn’t to be honest I saw $ 192 a share —— That’s not
Sound analysis!

 

[barney]

As you have aptly exampled on many occasions ….
The view of the chart mean little ….. its how you act/react to that "view" that matters

It’s up to the trader to make the most of what happens
After that perceived opportunity appears.

100% Tech …. In essence we are on the same page in that respect

I understand why yourself and @Saqeeb and others have taken the trade.

i.e. Recent solid move back up from the previous retracement and back into a fairly tight trading range where you have been able to enter near the lows of that range with a tight stop. Perfectly rational.

For me the depth of the recent retrace in early Nov. still poses a couple of questions and is why it doesn't feel like an opportunity so to speak. I don't see it as sell or a buy.

As you rightly say …. none of that really matters ….. You guys are in at a level where risk can be minimised (maybe even break even after today) so technically its a good trade, win lose or draw.

Cheers.