A1M - AIC Mines

[Logique]

Stepping up for the SPP are we all?

At AUD $1.78 it looks a no brainer. Only available in $5k, $10k, $15k lots though. Normally you'd worry about stags, but there is so much sp momentum, even though it's well past the record date for eligibility.

 

[Logique]

From: http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20101217AS_outlook.html
Tight Supply/Demand Picture Leaves Analysts, Investors Bullish On Copper
17 December 2010
By Allen Sykora
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

(Kitco News) - Copper’s supply/demand picture may become so tight that many analysts and institutional investors say it is one of the commodities on which they are the most bullish for 2011.
Copper has already staged an impressive rally from the commodity-wide sell-off that occurred when the global financial crisis hit in 2008. While Western economies were weak, copper demand remained strong in emerging economies such as China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal. Whenever recovery picks up in the West, demand should rise further.

Meanwhile, analysts say, mining companies will not be able to ramp up output fast enough to keep up with demand, leaving a global supply/demand deficit for 2011.

“It’s our top commodity pick for next year,” said Bart Melek, global commodity strategist with BMO Capital Markets.

The same was true for many institutional investors surveyed by Barclays Capital during an investor conference in December. More than 300 participants were asked to rate which commodity or sector will perform best in 2011, and copper got the highest rating with 26%, followed by grains at 23% and crude oil at 19%.

Analysts have been releasing commodity forecasts for 2011 this month, and Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Capital are among those listing copper as one of the markets they expect to fare best.

“We expect to see pretty tight market conditions for copper next year,” Melek said. “The crux of the story is that we are expecting supply to be outstripped by demand growth.”
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“I think the real tightness in the market is going to come in 2012,” Westgate said. “While I’m bullish next year, I’m super bullish for 2012.”
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Analysts with Goldman Sachs, in a research report, said base metals such as copper are even closer to a “structural bull market” than oil because of supply issues. In the case of crude, declining inventories and rising prices may be followed by OPEC producing from spare capacity. But for many base metals, producers are already at full capacity and existing inventories are the only “spare,” Goldman said.

In fact, Goldman said, nearly all exchange inventories may be exhausted over the course of 2011, forcing the market into demand rationing.

“We are expecting [physical] copper stocks to fall to the lowest tha they’ve ever been,” Norrish said.

 

[Logique]

To the company Director who since Christmas has progressively sold down more than 3 million directly held shares to now just 235 thousand, and they look shakey, you're wearing out your welcome mate.

To Intrepid company management, some explanation is required. Holders deserve more than this endless series of Change of Directors Interest notices on the ASX.

 

[Logique]

There is continued strength in the price of copper, and demand is expected to remain strong. Also there is the near term stabilization in the price of gold and silver, with signs of ongoing strength.

With the SPP now bedded in, IAU seems to be building a base now, signs are good.

 

[J P]

Mkt taken some backwards steps over the last week, yet IAU held firm and up 7c so far today - positive news expected re extending drilling area and resource inferred

 

[Logique]

Swept down with the rest of the market, but showing signs of life again. Watching it and re-entered in a small way.

The price of gold didn't enjoy the recent USD Index rises, but may be consolidating to trend, might have to go over to the gold thread and see what Explod and the crew are thinking.

Sorry poor chart reproduction. 2 Year weekly, use view zoom.

 

[chakvetadze]

Astute money from Canada has been buying recently. Expecting news from ownership discussions. Not before time. Looking for $1.80 then a $3.00 buyout.
Have been on board since 9c late 2008, sold 50% at $2.15. Been a stellar stock.

 

[Buckfont]

Astute money from Canada has been buying recently. Expecting news from ownership discussions. Not before time. Looking for $1.80 then a $3.00 buyout.
Have been on board since 9c late 2008, sold 50% at $2.15. Been a stellar stock.

chakvetadze, a link from where you got this info would be helpful.

 

[Sean K]

chakvetadze, a link from where you got this info would be helpful.

I also heard this from a taxi driver this afternoon. He told me his brother-in-law got it first hand from the Chairman's wife's tennis coach.

Absolutely outstanding work by Chak buying in at 9c in late 2008. The 10 year low down there for just a day or so. Incredible timing. Miraculous you would have to say.

Tujuh Bukit is looking like a substantial deposit. I wonder if they'll ever declare some Reserves and go to BFS?

8 Dec:

TUMPANGPITU PORPHYRY COPPER-GOLD RESOURCEI NCREASES OVER 70 PERCENT TO 1.7 BILLION TONNES AT 0.41% COPPER, 0.46G/T GOLD.

• TUMPANGPITUNOW CONTAINS 15BILLION POUNDS OFCOPPER AND 25MILLIONOUNCESOF GOLD (AT0.2% COPPER CUT-OFF)
• MINERALISATION REMAINS OPEN ATDEPTH AND LATERALLY
• GEOLOGICALPOTENTIAL AT TUMPANGPITU STANDS AT AN ADDITIONAL40% TO60% OF THE
CURRENT RESOURCE TONNAGE AT ASLIGHTLYREDUCEDGRADE
• NEW ESTIMATEDOESNOT INCLUDE FIVE COMPLETEDHOLES AWAITING LOGGING AND ASSAYING
• INITIAL DRILL PROGRAM AT SALAKAN PORPHYRY TO COMMENCE Q1 2012

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I also heard this from a taxi driver this afternoon. He told me his brother-in-law got it first hand from the Chairman's wife's tennis coach.

Absolutely outstanding work by Chak buying in at 9c in late 2008. The 10 year low down there for just a day or so. Incredible timing. Miraculous you would have to say.

LOL

He may be on to something kennas,

Ordinarily I'd say something was cooking with the increase in vol over the last few trading sessions but I note this stock tends to tank after a few up days in similar circumstances over the past six months.

A chart with an RSI for the brave.

gg

 

[skyQuake]

Astute money from Canada has been buying recently. Expecting news from ownership discussions. Not before time. Looking for $1.80 then a $3.00 buyout.
Have been on board since 9c late 2008, sold 50% at $2.15. Been a stellar stock.

Nope. Canada was heavy selling thurs night. Fri nite low vol

 

[chakvetadze]

Nope. Canada was heavy selling thurs night. Fri nite low vol

I'm talking about Canadian buying on the ASX not Toronto.
kennas,
Would you like me to acees my contract note from late 2008 and scan it on to here? Just because you missed the opportunity in the GFC, doesn't mean we all did? You probably hadn't even heard of Intrepid back then. Late to the party pal?

 

[chakvetadze]

chakvetadze, a link from where you got this info would be helpful.

You want me to record my broker's conversations and post them on the intenet? LOL

 

[skyQuake]

I'm talking about Canadian buying on the ASX not Toronto.
kennas,
Would you like me to acees my contract note from late 2008 and scan it on to here? Just because you missed the opportunity in the GFC, doesn't mean we all did? You probably hadn't even heard of Intrepid back then. Late to the party pal?

Would think it odd Canadian buying would occur in the Au session rather than in the Toronto session?
Having said that, it was well supported in AU so there must have been someone buying.

 

[Logique]

8 Dec:
TUMPANGPITU PORPHYRY COPPER-GOLD RESOURCEI NCREASES OVER 70 PERCENT TO 1.7 BILLION TONNES AT 0.41% COPPER, 0.46G/T GOLD.

• TUMPANGPITUNOW CONTAINS 15BILLION POUNDS OFCOPPER AND 25MILLIONOUNCESOF GOLD (AT0.2% COPPER CUT-OFF)
• MINERALISATION REMAINS OPEN ATDEPTH AND LATERALLY
• GEOLOGICALPOTENTIAL AT TUMPANGPITU STANDS AT AN ADDITIONAL40% TO60% OF THE
CURRENT RESOURCE TONNAGE AT ASLIGHTLYREDUCEDGRADE
• NEW ESTIMATEDOESNOT INCLUDE FIVE COMPLETEDHOLES AWAITING LOGGING AND ASSAYING
• INITIAL DRILL PROGRAM AT SALAKAN PORPHYRY TO COMMENCE Q1 2012

I'll try to give both sides of the story here.

Additionally to the above, there is the separate oxide project in the same location, for which the company announced in Dec 2010 an updated resource estimate of 130Mt at 0.55 g/t gold and 18 g/t silver, for 2.4 Moz of contained gold, and 80 Moz ounces of contained silver. All in the Inferred category. (ASX Ann 14 Dec 2010).

The oxide deposit lies above the deeper and significantly larger main copper-gold porphyry resource referred to by Kennas above. So it's a world class deposit. In fact two deposits, one sitting on top of the other.

However Intrepid needs to work through a couple of key issues. Firstly, getting the JV agreement squared away, which process seems to drag on frustratingly longer than anyone expected.

Secondly, is the need to secure 'Forestry approval', that is, being on forestry land, a permit will be required from the Indonesian Govt to conduct open pit mining. Lynas holders will nod their heads knowingly at this point, given the protracted LAMP approval process in Malaysia.

 

[chakvetadze]

However Intrepid needs to work through a couple of key issues. Firstly, getting the JV agreement squared away, which process seems to drag on frustratingly longer than anyone expected.

Secondly, is the need to secure 'Forestry approval', that is, being on forestry land, a permit will be required from the Indonesian Govt to conduct open pit mining.

Yep. Spot on.
That's why the stock is $1.28 and not $2.28.
The first issue will be gathering momentum now that they have appointed a specialist negotiator fluent in English and Indonesian.
I am not concerned with the second issue (Forestry re-classification). It's really just a matter of IAU purchasing the equivalent amount of non-forestry classified land and getting it re-classified "forestry" to counter balance the Tujut Bukit area.

 

[Logique]

Yes it occurred to me that given the high stakes, it's no surprise that a JV partner would want to go through the agreement line by line. With the forestry approval, given the value of the project to Indonesia, I'm sure a way will be found, as you say.

 

[chakvetadze]

Bought another 40,000 at $1.26. I am confident a relatively quick resolution to the ownership issue will be forthcoming.

 

[chakvetadze]

Complete over-reation. In for another 60,000 at 98c average.

 

[Logique]

Way to shake out the share register! Turns out Acorn Capital sold 5m of the 8m shares traded last Thursday. But Acorn have 35m left. Ping, ping go the stop loss orders. Are Acorn selling down or just re-balancing, we don't know.

On last week's Indonesia announcement, after 10 years from production commencement, companies must reduce to 49% ownership, on fair $$ terms, if the Govt has the $$ and the inclination. Intrepid are 80% owners, thus would hypothetically sell 31% of their current 80% ownership, receiving cash or equity in return.

49% of the Tujuh Bukit deposit (even 10 years after commencement) is still a ship load of value. This might all help Intrepid get the govt licence approvals up.

I didn't think the Indonesia announcement was such a big deal, but we don't know what Acorn Capital are going to do.

I might also note that Australia now also has an increased sovereign risk, with 500 companies on a list to pay a MRRT or super profits tax, with foreign investment capital already being diverted to other countries.