A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

[Joe Blow]

Joe, do you really live in Prague? How come I never noticed that before
Or is Prague just your fantasy?

I've been here for two and a half months and will be here for two more weeks.

I will be back in Australia January 5th.

If the market turns then bearish predictions by shorters could be far worse than the bullish predictions.

Agreed... but if someone can justify a price target, whether bullish or bearish, then I will let it stand. It's then up to other posters to either agree with or disagree with that point of view. There's nothing wrong with different perspectives as long as a little thought has gone into it.

 

[krisbarry]

Still some are missing the point, and that is FA done on current resources is fine, but cannot possibly be connected with the share price and a future share price at such an early stage. Confirmation or not...mining companies have filthy track records of getting it wrong. CDU, and RRS come to mind of two examples of mining companies stating resources, in which didn't match its previous statements.

Two thumbs up for trade4profit, as he has done well to pick MMB, but come on now he is talking it up (ramping it up) $5.67, then $6.00, then $12

Alls it takes is an unexpected share placement or a resource downgrade and this will implode taking down with it all the rampers.

By the way wasn't trade4profit in some legal fight with the ASX, ASIC or CDU, over the share price of CDU...not sure if it is true, or was true

 

[krisbarry]

...and while we are at it... the broker who made the wild claim of CDU being worth $26 a share, based on resources... still has egg on his face. Can I stick a frying pan on his head and add some bacon too.

...not to mention another broker recommending a buy on VLL at $2.60, give me a break.

Now you see what wild claims can do on FA alone, plenty of people walking around with egg on their faces.

 

[kgee]

what are we going to discuss if we can't talk about a companies value???

 

[krisbarry]

what are we going to discuss if we can't talk about a companies value???

Like I said talk about the companies value till the cows come home, but let the market decide the true/real value of the company, via its share price.

Current resources in any mining stock vary so much from day to day...many factors are at work here such as the value of a base metals on the day, the value of the aussie dollar, the amount of base metal on hand at any given time, the demand/supply etc.

Just like the housing market has a value, so does the stock market.

Real Estate agents talk up the market, but at the end of the day its how much the buyer is willing to pay.

Is MMB worth $5.67, depends on many factors so simply adding all the values together doesn't guarentee that someone will pay $5.67...it could be more or less.

This thread is not about downramping any stock its just what I see day in and day out on these boards and so many people get it so wrong, so often.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Perhaps there should be a "forum reader beware" disclaimer (is there one already that I skipped through) that says words to the effect of, "Posters here are not professionals inspite of how they may carry on. Act on information herewith at your own risk/peril").

I don't encourage ramping but I'm not that daft that I can't ignore it. Who are we trying to protect? Vulnerable noobs who don't know better?

 

[rederob]

krisbarry
Your track record speaks for itself in so many forums.
Despite me asking you dozens of times to justify your blatant rampings on numerous equities, the best you could ever do was post some cut and pastes, ad nauseum.
You need to take stock of some of life's realities: Gold will trade at $1000 and BHP could well trade at the same price if it still exists under that banner in 50 years time.
Most of the people that post here, and most that probably read here, have more than half a brain, and can sort the wheat from the chaff.
I think KZL has a chance to become a very profitable diversified mining house in a few years, and could easily double in price within 5 years should present trends continue.
Equally, a collapse of commodities could halve its price in 12 months.
There is no fundamental nor technical analysis that will give you any certainty into the future and if you trade or invest you need to come to grips with this fact very quickly.
Those that can't shouldn't be in this game.

 

[krisbarry]

Again we are missing the point, to simply justify a share price because of this factor and that factor doesn't make it a buy or sell, or hold.

The true value of a company is decided by the market as a collective agreement. No one individual no matter how much they fundamentally mull over the numbers can give an accurate share price.

Thats why we see so many people with egg on their faces after predicting a share price via FA, or even TA for that matter. I have done it too so I am admitting fault, hence the reason for this thread.

Instead of deciding the share price discuss the company and its potential value as a whole, not as a SHARE PRICE!

 

[Julia]

krisbarry
Your track record speaks for itself in so many forums.
Despite me asking you dozens of times to justify your blatant rampings on numerous equities, the best you could ever do was post some cut and pastes, ad nauseum.
You need to take stock of some of life's realities: Gold will trade at $1000 and BHP could well trade at the same price if it still exists under that banner in 50 years time.
Most of the people that post here, and most that probably read here, have more than half a brain, and can sort the wheat from the chaff.
I think KZL has a chance to become a very profitable diversified mining house in a few years, and could easily double in price within 5 years should present trends continue.
Equally, a collapse of commodities could halve its price in 12 months.
There is no fundamental nor technical analysis that will give you any certainty into the future and if you trade or invest you need to come to grips with this fact very quickly.
Those that can't shouldn't be in this game.

Joe has clearly stated what's acceptable, and Rederob as usual makes good sense.

Given your history, Kris, I'm curious to know the inspiration behind your conversion to "truth in posting".



Julia

 

[kgee]

Stop the clock ...I was just yanking your chain ...you must admit this forum is pretty good at stopping ramping...I visit hot copper sometimes and some of the threads are such cr*p and leave such a foul taste I often wonder wether their ramping doesn't have a negative effect rather than a positive

 

[pacer]

I've been known to ramp a bit when the bourbon gets to me.....sorry.

But but so far 95% of my my shares have performed to 50-300% of my get in price.

I'm here for the entertainment firstly and the information second.

Merry Xmas all......

 

[Deadcat]

Creator of this thread should look to his last post on LVL and decide if what he added to it today was worthwhile. This is a great site and does have alot of substance, however, there are always a few posters who give alot of credit to the saying "Pot calling the kettle black".

 

[krisbarry]

What I added was of value, as it has found some support at its current level, and has been building slow and steady.

Also all members need to keep up post numbers to qualify for the comp...so there :

 

[Sean K]

Creator of this thread should look to his last post on LVL and decide if what he added to it today was worthwhile. This is a great site and does have alot of substance, however, there are always a few posters who give alot of credit to the saying "Pot calling the kettle black".

Cat, I totally agree on the pots and kettles thing and we all need to be mindful of how we post. Being objective is very difficult when hard earned $$ are on the line.

However, STCs post on LVL wasn't as bad as could be. It has consolidated and is slowly recovering, but it's no sure thing that's for sure. It has actually more than doubled in the past 4 months, which can't be too bad. (although a 2 cent stocks has the potential to do that every day of course)

Thanks for keeping an eye on things and keeping the site honest. I'm sure STC has an opinion of why LVL is starting to look good better????

 

[krisbarry]

Anyway we should get back to this thread please...and not side track it with stocks.

Thanks

 

[Joe Blow]

2007 will be the year we run the rampers out of town, or at least to another forum where it is acceptable.

Starting January 1st the moderators and I will be targetting those whose sole purpose on ASF is to ramp stocks they hold. If they persist with these activities, they will be banned. It's time to crack down I'm afraid.

Keep in mind that the core group of rampers on ASF consists of a tiny minority of maybe a dozen or so people. I am not referring to the vast majority of ASF members whose posts I have no problem with.

I know I will cop some flack from some quarters for taking these kind of measures but in my opinion shameless ramping brings down the quality of ASF as a whole and I see getting tough on ramping/rampers as a necessary part of maintaining standards.

 

[rederob]

I know I will cop some flack from some quarters for taking these kind of measures but in my opinion shameless ramping brings down the quality of ASF as a whole and I see getting tough on ramping/rampers as a necessary part of maintaining standards.

Only from the rampers, Joe.
I think you are treading on pretty safe ground.
The boiler rooms and hot coppers will be refuelled by your stance in 2007.

 

[Bobby]

2007 will be the year we run the rampers out of town, or at least to another forum where it is acceptable.

Starting January 1st the moderators and I will be targetting those whose sole purpose on ASF is to ramp stocks they hold. If they persist with these activities, they will be banned. It's time to crack down I'm afraid.

Keep in mind that the core group of rampers on ASF consists of a tiny minority of maybe a dozen or so people. I am not referring to the vast majority of ASF members whose posts I have no problem with.

Joe its the covert rampers that amuse me, they spread a thought to the lesser educated.
Their rhetoric being a camouflage to propagate a ramp.

Cheers Bob.